【摘要】：農(nóng)業(yè)是一個(gè)國(guó)家和地區(qū)安民心，穩(wěn)天下的基礎(chǔ)產(chǎn)業(yè)，保障“米袋子”和“菜籃子”安全作為國(guó)家重要安全戰(zhàn)略之一越來(lái)越受高度重視，同時(shí)也面臨耕地減少等情況帶來(lái)的嚴(yán)峻挑戰(zhàn)。2004年中央一號(hào)文件首次提出“加快建立政策性農(nóng)業(yè)保險(xiǎn)制度，選擇部分地區(qū)和產(chǎn)品率先試點(diǎn)”，此后連續(xù)十一年的中央一號(hào)文件都提出要支持農(nóng)業(yè)保險(xiǎn)服務(wù)“三農(nóng)”。但是，當(dāng)前農(nóng)作物保險(xiǎn)產(chǎn)品的保險(xiǎn)金額是以保物化成本為主，存在保障程度低等缺陷。云南于2007年啟動(dòng)政策性農(nóng)業(yè)保險(xiǎn)試點(diǎn)工作，規(guī)模上連續(xù)7年以較高增長(zhǎng)率保持增長(zhǎng)。與此同時(shí)也不斷暴露出一些問(wèn)題，尤其是在近幾年的干旱情況下，我們發(fā)現(xiàn)云南政策性農(nóng)業(yè)保險(xiǎn)的運(yùn)作效率是相對(duì)滯后的，未能充分發(fā)揮出保險(xiǎn)所特有的損失補(bǔ)償和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理職能。 相比較于當(dāng)前保物化成本的農(nóng)作物保險(xiǎn)產(chǎn)品，區(qū)域產(chǎn)量保險(xiǎn)能夠有效降低道德風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和逆向選擇的發(fā)生，，管理成本低，產(chǎn)品標(biāo)準(zhǔn)化以及程序簡(jiǎn)便等優(yōu)勢(shì)。為此，本文以云南省水稻為例，立題研究云南省水稻產(chǎn)量保險(xiǎn)的設(shè)計(jì)方案。 本文的主要研究?jī)?nèi)容和結(jié)論： 第一，分析云南省水稻種植面臨的主要?dú)庀鬄?zāi)害，從時(shí)空角度介紹干旱、冰雹、洪澇和泥石流在各州市的分布情況。 第二，對(duì)當(dāng)前云南水稻種植保險(xiǎn)經(jīng)營(yíng)情況作出分析，包含目前保險(xiǎn)采用的條款主要內(nèi)容，經(jīng)營(yíng)運(yùn)作模式和2013年保險(xiǎn)公司對(duì)水稻保險(xiǎn)的經(jīng)營(yíng)情況，進(jìn)而挖掘出水稻保險(xiǎn)發(fā)展面臨的困難。 第三，依托當(dāng)前水稻種植保險(xiǎn)經(jīng)營(yíng)存在問(wèn)題與困境，以設(shè)計(jì)云南省水稻產(chǎn)量保險(xiǎn)為解決方法的假想來(lái)制定產(chǎn)品方案。方案內(nèi)容包含提供產(chǎn)品設(shè)計(jì)的總體思路、產(chǎn)品方案的設(shè)想、產(chǎn)品實(shí)施的可行性分析以及設(shè)計(jì)實(shí)施所面臨的主要核心技術(shù)難題。 第四，選取水稻單產(chǎn)變異系數(shù)、水稻種植專(zhuān)業(yè)化指數(shù)、水稻種植效率、水稻單產(chǎn)減產(chǎn)率大于5%的概率和水稻受災(zāi)指數(shù)作為衡量水稻生產(chǎn)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的指標(biāo)，通過(guò)SPSS軟件對(duì)樣本指標(biāo)進(jìn)行系統(tǒng)聚類(lèi)分析，云南16個(gè)州市的水稻生產(chǎn)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)被劃分為五個(gè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)等級(jí)。風(fēng)險(xiǎn)最高區(qū)：西雙版納；風(fēng)險(xiǎn)較高區(qū)：昆明、玉溪、麗江、昭通、文山、曲靖；風(fēng)險(xiǎn)中等區(qū)：普洱、大理、楚雄、紅河、保山；風(fēng)險(xiǎn)較低區(qū)：臨滄、怒江、迪慶；風(fēng)險(xiǎn)最低區(qū)：德宏。 第五，基于Chi—Squared檢驗(yàn)、K—S檢驗(yàn)、AD檢驗(yàn)等方法來(lái)確定云南省各個(gè)州市水稻單產(chǎn)波動(dòng)模型的最優(yōu)分布。假定保障水平為80%，測(cè)算該保障水平下各個(gè)地州水稻產(chǎn)量保險(xiǎn)的純費(fèi)率，再通過(guò)臨近相關(guān)方法調(diào)整純費(fèi)率和經(jīng)驗(yàn)法計(jì)算附加費(fèi)率，最終兩種費(fèi)率之和便是水稻產(chǎn)量保險(xiǎn)的費(fèi)率。 最后，選擇建立政府與商業(yè)保險(xiǎn)機(jī)構(gòu)協(xié)同模式下的水稻生產(chǎn)巨災(zāi)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分散機(jī)制，模擬測(cè)算了年均巨災(zāi)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)準(zhǔn)備金提取額為2.2億元和賠付率超賠再保險(xiǎn)中賠付率在140%～200%的再保險(xiǎn)費(fèi)率為9.52%，超過(guò)200%的部分可在保障安全性的前提下進(jìn)行金融衍生工具的運(yùn)用。
[Abstract]:Agriculture is a basic industry for the people in a country and a region that is stable in the world, and ensuring the security of "rice bags" and "vegetable baskets" as one of the important national security strategies has been paid more and more attention. At the same time, it is also facing severe challenges brought about by the reduction of cultivated land. In 2004, document No. 1 of the Central Committee for the first time proposed "accelerating the establishment of a policy-based agricultural insurance system and selecting some areas and products as the first pilot." Since then, 11 consecutive years of central document 1 all proposed to support agricultural insurance services, agriculture, rural areas and farmers. However, at present, the insurance amount of crop insurance products is mainly based on the physical and chemical cost, and there are some defects such as low degree of guarantee. Yunnan started the pilot work of policy-based agricultural insurance in 2007, and kept increasing at a higher rate for 7 consecutive years. At the same time, there are still some problems exposed, especially under the drought in recent years, we have found that the operational efficiency of Yunnan policy-oriented agricultural insurance is relatively lagging. Failed to give full play to the insurance-specific loss compensation and risk management functions. Compared with current crop insurance products with materialized cost, regional yield insurance can effectively reduce the occurrence of moral hazard and adverse selection, low management cost, product standardization and simple procedures. Therefore, taking rice in Yunnan Province as an example, this paper studies the design scheme of rice yield insurance in Yunnan Province. The main contents and conclusions of this paper are as follows: first, the main meteorological disasters faced by rice planting in Yunnan Province are analyzed, and the distribution of drought, hail, flood and debris flow in the provinces and cities is introduced from the point of view of time and space. Second, this paper analyzes the current situation of rice planting insurance in Yunnan, including the main contents of the clauses adopted by the current insurance, the mode of operation and the management of rice insurance by insurance companies in 2013. And then dig out the difficulties faced by the development of rice insurance. Thirdly, relying on the problems and dilemmas of rice planting insurance management at present, the product scheme is formulated based on the assumption of designing rice yield insurance in Yunnan Province. The content of the project includes the general idea of product design, the assumption of product scheme, the feasibility analysis of product implementation and the main core technical problems faced by design and implementation. Fourthly, the coefficient of variation of rice yield per unit yield, the index of rice planting specialization, the efficiency of rice planting, the probability of yield reduction of more than 5% per unit yield of rice and the disaster index of rice were selected as indicators to measure the risk of rice production. The risk of rice production in 16 prefectures and cities in Yunnan was divided into five risk grades by systematic cluster analysis of sample indexes with SPSS software. The highest risk areas: Xishuangbanna; the higher risk areas: Kunming, Yuxi, Lijiang, Zhaotong, Wenshan, Qujing; the risk areas: Puer, Dali, Chuxiong, Red River, Baoshan; the lower risk areas: Lincang, Nujiang, Diqing; Lowest risk zone: Dehong. Fifthly, based on Chi-Squared test, KES test, AD test and other methods to determine the optimal distribution of rice yield fluctuation model in every prefecture and city of Yunnan Province. Assuming that the guarantee level is 80%, calculate the net rate of rice yield insurance in each prefecture under this guarantee level, and then adjust the net rate and empirical method to calculate the additional rate by means of adjacent related methods. The final sum of the two rates is the rice yield insurance rate. Finally, we choose to set up a mechanism to disperse the risk of rice production catastrophe under the mode of cooperation between government and commercial insurance institutions. The simulation calculated that the average annual withdrawal of catastrophe risk reserve was 220 million yuan and the re-insurance rate of over-payment rate of 140% and 200% of reinsurance rate was 9.52%. More than 200% of the financial derivatives can be used on the premise of ensuring safety.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：云南財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F326.11;F842.66

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