【摘要】：養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)作為社會(huì)保險(xiǎn)的重要組成部分,對(duì)于促進(jìn)社會(huì)和諧穩(wěn)定、轉(zhuǎn)變經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展方式、實(shí)現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展具有重要作用。然而隨著老齡化社會(huì)的到來(lái),世界各國(guó)的養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)體系受到了嚴(yán)峻的挑戰(zhàn)。雖然中國(guó)在2005年對(duì)養(yǎng)老金制度進(jìn)行了改革,開(kāi)始實(shí)行社會(huì)統(tǒng)籌和個(gè)人賬戶(hù)相結(jié)合的“統(tǒng)賬結(jié)合”模式。但養(yǎng)老金缺口問(wèn)題一直是社會(huì)關(guān)注的焦點(diǎn),隨著個(gè)人賬戶(hù)實(shí)現(xiàn)自我平衡,并在2005年以后開(kāi)始單獨(dú)做實(shí),統(tǒng)籌賬戶(hù)的養(yǎng)老金缺口問(wèn)題成為了研究的熱點(diǎn)。統(tǒng)籌賬戶(hù)養(yǎng)老基金的可持續(xù)性影響著制度的運(yùn)行,關(guān)系著每一個(gè)人的切身利益。本文結(jié)合中國(guó)現(xiàn)行養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)制度,著重研究基本養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)制度中統(tǒng)籌賬戶(hù)的養(yǎng)老金缺口問(wèn)題。首先介紹養(yǎng)老基金平衡相關(guān)理論及定性分析養(yǎng)老金缺口影響因素；其次對(duì)養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)制度中的參保人口進(jìn)行分類(lèi),基于生命表理論和精算方法分別建立在當(dāng)前參保人口系統(tǒng)和擴(kuò)面系統(tǒng)下的不同參保人口的養(yǎng)老金精算缺口模型；接著根據(jù)相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù),分析當(dāng)前參保人口和模擬未來(lái)養(yǎng)老金制度包含人口的增長(zhǎng)路徑及結(jié)構(gòu)變化；在得到“養(yǎng)老金覆蓋人口”指標(biāo)的基礎(chǔ)上,結(jié)合基本參數(shù)假定測(cè)算兩種系統(tǒng)下統(tǒng)籌賬戶(hù)養(yǎng)老金繳納現(xiàn)值與未來(lái)給付現(xiàn)值的差額及測(cè)算時(shí)點(diǎn)內(nèi)的年度收支差額；最后結(jié)合中國(guó)具體國(guó)情,就統(tǒng)籌賬戶(hù)養(yǎng)老基金平衡提出具有可行性和合理性的政策建議。模擬實(shí)證結(jié)果顯示,在不考慮“擴(kuò)面新人”影響、基金累計(jì)余額和財(cái)政補(bǔ)助下,當(dāng)前參保系統(tǒng)下的社會(huì)統(tǒng)籌基金從2008年開(kāi)始每年都處于收不抵支的狀態(tài),年度收支差額情況呈U字型分布；統(tǒng)籌賬戶(hù)基金在2006年初存在的巨額隱性債務(wù)規(guī)模。但由于國(guó)家信用的存在,養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)隱性債務(wù)并不需要立刻償還；而且隨著“擴(kuò)面新人”的不斷加入,社會(huì)統(tǒng)籌基金的年度收支情況在2006-2065年間得到了明顯改善,在未來(lái)很長(zhǎng)一段時(shí)間還有盈余。不過(guò)這并不完全說(shuō)明中國(guó)養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)體系安全,因?yàn)槲磥?lái)統(tǒng)籌賬戶(hù)年度收支盈余主要靠“擴(kuò)面新人”的繳費(fèi)來(lái)支撐的�？梢灶A(yù)見(jiàn),隨著養(yǎng)老體系新增人口的穩(wěn)定及“擴(kuò)面新人”的退休,中國(guó)統(tǒng)籌賬戶(hù)的年度收支又將面臨很大問(wèn)題。因此,本文提出在養(yǎng)老金危機(jī)未真正到來(lái)之際,通過(guò)延遲退休年齡、加大財(cái)政補(bǔ)償力度等方法對(duì)中國(guó)養(yǎng)老金制度的可持續(xù)發(fā)展提供支持。
[Abstract]:As an important part of social insurance, old-age insurance plays an important role in promoting social harmony and stability, changing the mode of economic development and realizing the coordinated development of economy and society. However, with the arrival of the aging society, the pension insurance system in the world has been severely challenged. Although China reformed its pension system in 2005, it began to combine social planning with individual accounts. However, pension gap has always been the focus of social attention. With the individual account to achieve self-balance, and since 2005, the pension gap has become the focus of research. The sustainability of the overall account pension fund affects the operation of the system and concerns the vital interests of everyone. This paper focuses on the pension gap in the basic old-age insurance system in combination with the current pension insurance system in China. First of all, it introduces the theory of pension fund balance and qualitative analysis of pension gap affecting factors; Secondly, it classifies the insured population in the old-age insurance system and establishes the actuarial gap model of the different insured population under the current insured population system and the expanded population system based on the life table theory and actuarial method. Then, according to the relevant data, the paper analyzes the current insured population and simulates the future pension system including the population growth path and structural changes; On the basis of obtaining the index of "pension coverage population", combined with the basic parameter assumption to calculate the difference between the present value of pension payment and the present value of future payment and the annual income and expenditure difference between the two systems. Finally, according to the specific conditions of China, the paper puts forward some feasible and reasonable policy recommendations on the balance of the overall account pension fund. The simulation results show that, without taking into account the influence of "broad-face newcomers", under the cumulative balance of the fund and financial subsidies, the current social coordination fund under the insurance system has been in a state of income and expenditure each year since 2008. The annual balance of income and expenditure is U-shaped; The large amount of hidden debt of the fund in early 2006. However, due to the existence of national credit, the implicit debt of pension insurance does not need to be repaid immediately; And with the addition of new members, the annual income and expenditure of the Social Co-ordinating Fund improved markedly between 2006 and 2065, and there will be a surplus for a long time to come. But this does not entirely mean that China's pension insurance system is safe, as the future balance of accounts surplus is mainly supported by the payment of "new face expansion." It can be predicted that with the stability of the new population in the pension system and the retirement of the new, China will face great problems in the annual income and expenditure of the overall account. Therefore, this paper proposes to support the sustainable development of China's pension system by delaying the retirement age and increasing the financial compensation when the pension crisis has not really arrived.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：南京財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F842.67

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