【摘要】：近三十多年來,我國(guó)實(shí)行嚴(yán)格的計(jì)劃生育政策使得出生人口下降,同時(shí)經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展使平均壽命增加,老年撫養(yǎng)比從1996年的9.5加速上升到2015年的14.3,人口結(jié)構(gòu)進(jìn)一步惡化將會(huì)使基本養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)保障體系遭受巨大壓力。為緩解養(yǎng)老壓力,我國(guó)計(jì)劃生育政策發(fā)生了較大的轉(zhuǎn)變:由一孩到“單獨(dú)二孩”,再到現(xiàn)在的全面二孩。同時(shí),為惠及全體城鄉(xiāng)居民,由新型農(nóng)村養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)和城鎮(zhèn)居民養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)合并而來的城鄉(xiāng)居民養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)成為我國(guó)養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)體系的重要組成部分。因此在養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)制度改革以及生育政策改變的雙重背景下,我國(guó)養(yǎng)老保障體系的壓力是否能夠得到有效地緩解,同時(shí)對(duì)于并軌后的城鄉(xiāng)居民養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)體制如何進(jìn)一步完善以適應(yīng)我國(guó)的現(xiàn)實(shí)情況都成為新的研究課題。本文結(jié)合統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)、精算學(xué)以及人口學(xué)等學(xué)科的相關(guān)知識(shí)建立了人口預(yù)測(cè)模型、基金收入和支出精算模型,測(cè)算了我國(guó)養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)(包括城鎮(zhèn)職工養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)和城鄉(xiāng)居民養(yǎng)老保)的收支結(jié)余情況,進(jìn)而又對(duì)影響?zhàn)B老保險(xiǎn)收支的因素進(jìn)行了政策模擬分析,為健全養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)制度,提高養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)支付能力,提供重要參考。測(cè)算結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn):第一,二孩政策下我國(guó)總?cè)丝趯⒃?029年達(dá)到峰值14.44億人,之后開始下降,老年撫養(yǎng)比則持續(xù)攀升;第二,二孩政策對(duì)我國(guó)養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)收支的影響具有一定的時(shí)滯性,并且目前政策效果仍不足以有效緩解未來養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)的支付壓力;第三,二孩政策后實(shí)施延遲退休政策(領(lǐng)取養(yǎng)老金的年齡)將有效改善養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)的收支情況;第四,提升參保人員繳費(fèi)率和計(jì)發(fā)系數(shù),保證基金收益率也將有效緩解現(xiàn)行養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)制度下的財(cái)務(wù)壓力;第五,經(jīng)濟(jì)健康發(fā)展是保障養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)可持續(xù)性的最基礎(chǔ)力量。因此,應(yīng)建立完善的養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)保障體系,保證經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展水平,同時(shí)鼓勵(lì)人們生育二孩,多政策配合實(shí)施,保障我國(guó)養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)長(zhǎng)期可持續(xù)性發(fā)展。
[Abstract]:In the past 30 years or so, China has implemented a strict family planning policy that has led to a decline in the number of births, while economic development has increased the average life expectancy. The old-age dependency ratio increased from 9.5 in 1996 to 14.3 in 2015, and the deterioration of the population structure will put great pressure on the basic old-age insurance system. In order to relieve the pressure of supporting the aged, the family planning policy of our country has changed greatly: from one child to "single two children", and then to the all-around second child. At the same time, in order to benefit all urban and rural residents, the combination of new rural old-age insurance and urban old-age insurance has become an important part of the old-age insurance system in China. Therefore, under the dual background of the reform of the old-age insurance system and the change of the birth policy, can the pressure of the old-age security system in our country be effectively alleviated? At the same time, how to perfect the pension insurance system of urban and rural residents to adapt to the reality of our country has become a new research topic. In this paper, a population forecasting model, an actuarial model of fund income and expenditure are established by combining the relevant knowledge of statistics, actuarial science and demography, etc. This paper calculates the balance of income and expenditure of China's endowment insurance (including urban and rural workers' pension insurance and urban and rural residents' old-age insurance), and then carries out a policy simulation analysis of the factors affecting the income and expenditure of pension insurance, in order to improve the pension insurance system. Raise endowment insurance pay ability, provide important reference. The results show that: first, under the two-child policy, the total population of China will reach a peak of 1.444 billion in 2029, then it will begin to decline, and the old-age dependency ratio will continue to rise; second, The effect of the two-child policy on the income and expenditure of China's old-age insurance has a certain delay, and the current policy effect is still insufficient to effectively alleviate the payment pressure of the future pension insurance; third, The implementation of the deferred retirement policy after the two-child policy (the age at which the pension is received) will effectively improve the income and expenditure of the old-age insurance. Fourth, the contribution rate and the payout coefficient of the insured personnel will be increased. Ensuring the return rate of funds will also effectively alleviate the financial pressure under the current pension insurance system; fifthly, healthy economic development is the most basic force to ensure the sustainability of pension insurance. Therefore, we should establish a perfect pension insurance system to ensure the level of economic development, encourage people to give birth to two children, and implement more policies to ensure the long-term sustainable development of China's old-age insurance.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：重慶工商大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F842.67

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