【摘要】：隨著市場化改革,勞動力獲得了在行業(yè)和地區(qū)間流動的條件。勞動力流動涉及到養(yǎng)老保險關(guān)系轉(zhuǎn)續(xù)銜接的問題。在人口老齡化和傳統(tǒng)家庭結(jié)構(gòu)解體的背景下,社會養(yǎng)老保險不僅是保障參保者老有所養(yǎng)的基本方式,更是社會健康持續(xù)發(fā)展的關(guān)鍵。2007年前,養(yǎng)老保險還基本處于市、縣一級統(tǒng)籌的狀態(tài),而且為了鼓勵因地制宜的制度,中央讓各地在統(tǒng)一的指導(dǎo)原則下選擇各自的實施方案,因而造就了各地養(yǎng)老保險制度“百花齊放”的局面。由于各地區(qū)制度的差異和個人選擇的不同,部分參保個體選擇了退出城鎮(zhèn)職工養(yǎng)老保險。2010年1月1日是養(yǎng)老保險轉(zhuǎn)移新政實施的第一天。然而此前一天,深圳市出現(xiàn)了一次大規(guī)模的退保潮,近兩萬參保人涌向社保經(jīng)辦機構(gòu)辦理退保,退保人數(shù)創(chuàng)歷史新高。對于參保對象退保的原因,業(yè)界和學(xué)界提出了各種解釋。 本文首先通過回顧退�，F(xiàn)象相關(guān)研究文獻,并提出作者擬采取的技術(shù)路線；其次從期望效用理論、不確定性條件下選擇理論、行為決策理論等行為經(jīng)濟學(xué)三方面闡述退保行為的機理和影響；從社會養(yǎng)老保險制度變遷、省際社會養(yǎng)老保險現(xiàn)狀和差異,以及社會養(yǎng)老保險制度差異三方面,分析了我國省際社會養(yǎng)老保險制度差異對退保的影響；使用深圳社會經(jīng)濟追蹤調(diào)查進行個案分析,以深圳社會養(yǎng)老保險發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀,城鎮(zhèn)企業(yè)職工養(yǎng)老保險參保個體特征,不同個體參保收益為基礎(chǔ),對退保群體的個體特征和就業(yè)條件進行定量分析,并檢驗了《城鎮(zhèn)企業(yè)職工基本養(yǎng)老保險關(guān)系轉(zhuǎn)移接續(xù)暫行辦法》對退保的影響。 主要結(jié)論如下： (1)從基期截面樣本看,男性參保個體的退保概率顯著高于女性參保個體；隨著年齡增加,參保個體的退保概率不斷下降,下降的速度隨著年齡增加而增加；外地戶口的參保個體的退保概率顯著高于本地戶口參保個體,在外地戶口中,城市戶口的參保個體回歸系數(shù)略高于農(nóng)村戶口的參保樣本；工資回歸系數(shù)和退保概率呈顯著的負相關(guān),隨著工資水平的上升,參保個體的退保概率不斷下降；在用工方式中,勞務(wù)派遣制參保個體的退保概率顯著高于全民制和合同制參保個體。 (2)從動態(tài)追蹤樣本上看,性別、年齡、參保意識、收入水平、戶口、地域歸屬、勞動合同屬性和行業(yè)類型都顯著影響退保概率。女性的退保概率低于男性；隨著年齡增長,退保概率將降低,通過對年齡劃分組群后,25歲以上的參保者退�？赡苄燥@著低于25歲以下的參保者,30歲以上的參保者退保可能性顯著低于30歲以下的參保者；相比前兩個年齡組,40歲的退保系數(shù)與30歲的退保系數(shù)的差值大于30歲的退保系數(shù)與25歲的退保系數(shù)差值。以上結(jié)果顯示,30歲是一個重要的門檻,一旦參保者的年齡達到30歲,退保概率到達邊際遞減的最小值；更換工作次數(shù)和退保概率呈反比,更換工作后堅持參保者,其參保意識較強,所以退保概率較低；收入越高的參保者退保概率越低,收入增長能降低參保者退保概率；外省身份和外地戶口顯著提高了參保者的退保概率；對于參保者的勞動合同屬性,勞務(wù)派遣的勞動合同屬性顯著提高了參保者的退保概率；相對于地質(zhì)勘探與水利管理、金融保險、社會服務(wù)、衛(wèi)生體育與社會福利、教育與文廣傳媒、科研與綜合技術(shù)服務(wù)等行業(yè),以及國家機關(guān)與社會團體的參保者,交通運輸倉儲與郵電通信、房地產(chǎn)業(yè)、零售批發(fā)與餐飲、制造業(yè)、水電煤氣生產(chǎn)與服務(wù)、建筑業(yè)的參保者其退保概率顯著更高。我們還檢驗了農(nóng)民工群體是高退保群體這一猜測,回歸結(jié)果并沒有支持這一猜測。行業(yè)類型為制造業(yè)、水電煤氣生產(chǎn)與服務(wù)、建筑業(yè),和戶口類型為外地農(nóng)業(yè)戶口的交互項并沒有顯著提高參保者的退保概率。只有在特定年齡段,該特征的群體退保概率才顯著改變。 (3)2010年1月開始實施由人力資源社會保障部和財政部制定的《城鎮(zhèn)企業(yè)職工基本養(yǎng)老保險關(guān)系轉(zhuǎn)移接續(xù)暫行辦法》規(guī)定在辦法執(zhí)行之日起未達到待遇領(lǐng)取年齡前,不得終止基本養(yǎng)老保險關(guān)系并辦理退保手續(xù)。該《暫行辦法》的實施顯著減少了退保人數(shù)和退保概率。 (4)在不考慮轉(zhuǎn)軌成本的情況下,現(xiàn)行的市級統(tǒng)籌城鎮(zhèn)企業(yè)職工養(yǎng)老保險制度具有一定的代際收入再分配和代內(nèi)收入再分配功能,同時個人賬戶具有一定程度的激勵效果。在深圳市代表性樣本中,現(xiàn)階段企業(yè)職工存在代際收入凈轉(zhuǎn)入,凈轉(zhuǎn)入量隨著貼現(xiàn)率的下降而增大,隨著社會平均工資增長率的下降而減�。慌匀后w、外地戶籍,低收入群體是代內(nèi)收入再分配中的收入轉(zhuǎn)入群體。
[Abstract]:With the reform of the market , the labor force obtains the flow between the industry and the region . In the background of the aging of the population and the disintegration of the traditional family structure , the social endowment insurance is not only the basic way of guaranteeing the old age of the insured , but also the key to the sustainable development of the social health .

Firstly , the paper reviews the related research literature of the phenomenon of depolarization , and puts forward the technical route to be taken by the author .
Secondly , from the perspective of expected utility theory , the theory of uncertainty , the theory of behavioral decision - making , the mechanism and influence of the act of withdrawal are discussed .
From the changes of the social endowment insurance system , the present situation and the difference of the endowment insurance in the province , and the difference of the social endowment insurance system , the article analyzes the influence of the difference of the endowment insurance system on the social insurance system in our country ;
Based on the current situation of Shenzhen social endowment insurance , the individual characteristics of the endowment insurance and the income of different individuals , quantitative analysis of the individual characteristics and employment conditions of the social insurance group is carried out , and the effect of the temporary scheme on the transfer of basic old - age insurance relation of urban and urban enterprises is examined .

The main conclusions are as follows :

( 1 ) From the sample of the section of the base period , the probability of the male insured individual is significantly higher than that of the female insured ;
With the increase of the age , the probability of the insured person ' s withdrawal decreased continuously , and the rate of decline increased with age .
In the field account , the individual regression coefficient is slightly higher than that of the rural residence .
There is a negative correlation between the regression coefficient of wages and the probability of retirement , as the wage level increases , the probability of the insured person decreases continuously ;
In the employment mode , the probability of the insured person is significantly higher than that of the whole people ' s system and contract system .

( 2 ) On the basis of dynamic tracing sample , the probability of retirement is significantly affected by sex , age , participation consciousness , income level , account , geographical affiliation , contract attribute and industry type .
With the increase of age , the probability of retirement insurance will be reduced . After the age is divided into groups , the possibility of the insured person who is more than 25 years old is significantly lower than that under the age of 25 , and the possibility of the insured person who is more than 30 years old is significantly lower than that under the age of 30 .
Compared with the previous two age groups , the difference between the coefficient of retirement of 40 and the coefficient of retirement of 30 years of age is more than 30 years old . The results show that the 30 - year - old is an important threshold , and once the insured person ' s age reaches 30 years old , the probability of escape reaches the minimum of marginal decline ;
The change of the number of jobs and the probability of the withdrawal are inversely proportional . After the replacement , the participants will adhere to the insured , and the insured consciousness is strong , so the probability of the escape is low ;
The lower the insured probability of the higher the income , the lower the income growth can reduce the probability of the insured .
the foreign identity and the field account greatly improve the probability of the insured person ' s withdrawal ;
For the labor contract attribute of the insured , the labor contract attribute of the labor dispatch significantly improves the probability of the insured person ' s withdrawal ;
With respect to geological exploration and water conservancy management , financial insurance , social services , health and sports and social welfare , education and the media , scientific research and integrated technology services , and the participation of State organs and social groups , the probability of their retirement is significantly higher .

( 3 ) The implementation of the temporary scheme for the transfer of basic endowment insurance for urban and rural enterprises established by the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security and the Ministry of Finance commenced in January 2010 , which stipulates that the basic endowment insurance relationship shall not be terminated before the date of payment of the treatment is not reached before the date of execution of the method . The implementation of the temporary scheme of the Provisional Measures significantly reduces the number of retirement benefits and the probability of retirement .

( 4 ) In the case of non - consideration of the transfer cost , the current urban and municipal enterprise employee endowment insurance system has certain inter - generational income redistribution and intra - generational income redistribution function , meanwhile , the personal account has certain degree of incentive effect . In the representative sample of Shenzhen , the net transfer of inter - generational income exists in the enterprise staff at present , the net transfer amount increases with the decline of discount rate , and decreases with the decline of social average wage growth rate ;
Women groups , field - based households , low - income groups are income - shifted groups in the intergenerational income redistribution .
【學(xué)位授予單位】：湖南大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F842.67

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