發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-06-27 14:50

  本文選題：養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn) + 年金之謎�。� 參考：《武漢大學(xué)》2013年博士論文

【摘要】：60歲及60歲以上的人口比是否超過10%是一個(gè)國家進(jìn)入“老齡化社會(huì)”的重要判斷標(biāo)準(zhǔn)。按照這一標(biāo)準(zhǔn),1999年,中國60歲及以上人口比例超過了10%,標(biāo)志著中國進(jìn)入老齡化社會(huì)。2012年末,中國60歲及以上人口近1.93億,占總?cè)丝诘?4.3%。13年間,中國60歲及以上的老齡人口增加超過了6500萬人。全國老齡辦預(yù)測,到2050年,中國60歲及以上人口將超過4億,老齡化水平將超過30%。人口老齡化帶來的養(yǎng)老保障需求增加顯而易見。 最常見的養(yǎng)老保障體系是由世界銀行提出的“三支柱”體系。但在中國,第一支柱的社會(huì)基本養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)一柱獨(dú)大,財(cái)政負(fù)擔(dān)壓力巨大難以持續(xù)性投入,己引起社會(huì)廣泛關(guān)注。第二支柱的企業(yè)年金受經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢(shì)波動(dòng)、企業(yè)成本壓力增大、不同企業(yè)體制差異巨大等多種因素影響,普及面擴(kuò)大和保障額提升的不確定性走強(qiáng)。因此,發(fā)展第三支柱的商業(yè)養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)迫在眉睫。 盡管國家的權(quán)威文件早己明確指出“保險(xiǎn)具有經(jīng)濟(jì)補(bǔ)償、資金融通和社會(huì)管理功能,是市場經(jīng)濟(jì)條件下風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的基本手段”,但目前保險(xiǎn)在經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展、社會(huì)安定、人們生活中所發(fā)揮的作用還遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)不夠。在市場經(jīng)濟(jì)中,理性的需求方當(dāng)然會(huì)逐“利”而為,養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)消費(fèi)者也不會(huì)例外。只有養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)購買者獲得了他尋求的“利”,養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)的作用才能真實(shí)、真正地發(fā)揮。 養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)的購買動(dòng)機(jī)包括保障動(dòng)機(jī)、儲(chǔ)蓄動(dòng)機(jī)和投資動(dòng)機(jī)。保障動(dòng)機(jī)是指人們購買養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)可以避免未來的老年生活質(zhì)量下降；儲(chǔ)蓄動(dòng)機(jī)是指人們購買養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)可以實(shí)現(xiàn)更長生命周期的最優(yōu)消費(fèi)；投資動(dòng)機(jī)是指人們購買養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)可以獲取生者利。如果人們購買來養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn),長壽風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的“風(fēng)險(xiǎn)”將帶來“收益”,從保障視角看為獲得長壽保障,從儲(chǔ)蓄視角看為獲得長壽給付,從投資視角看為獲得生者利。 儲(chǔ)蓄動(dòng)機(jī)的一個(gè)結(jié)論是儲(chǔ)蓄的完全年金化,而投資動(dòng)機(jī)更是為了追求生者利視角下的高投資回報(bào)。顯然,儲(chǔ)蓄動(dòng)機(jī)、投資動(dòng)機(jī)與人們的金融資產(chǎn)配置選擇有著一定的關(guān)系。金融資產(chǎn)配置理論可以分為消費(fèi)型金融資產(chǎn)配置理論與財(cái)富型金融資產(chǎn)配置理論,前者追求財(cái)富效用的最大化,由馬克維茨于1952年提出；后者追求跨期消費(fèi)效用的最大化,源自默頓1969-1973年間發(fā)表的一系列經(jīng)典文獻(xiàn)。 儲(chǔ)蓄動(dòng)機(jī)視角下的消費(fèi)型養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)購買最優(yōu)模型由雅瑞(1965)創(chuàng)建。按照消費(fèi)性金融資產(chǎn)配置理論的視角,雅瑞的研究結(jié)論可以表述為：儲(chǔ)蓄全部配置為年金資產(chǎn)是人們的最優(yōu)資產(chǎn)配置選擇。盡管“儲(chǔ)蓄完全年金化”這一結(jié)論受到了廣泛質(zhì)疑,并引發(fā)了人們對(duì)“年金之謎”問題的關(guān)注,但消費(fèi)型養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)購買最優(yōu)模型的建模思路和拓展方向仍然在大多數(shù)學(xué)者心中根深蒂固。 財(cái)富型金融資產(chǎn)配置理論的一個(gè)配置標(biāo)準(zhǔn)是財(cái)富效用的最大化。如果將養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)看作是一種金融資產(chǎn)的話,那么人們?cè)谧非筘?cái)富效用最大化時(shí)可以將養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)作為金融資產(chǎn)配置的一種選擇�；诖�,論文建立了投資動(dòng)機(jī)下的財(cái)富型養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)購買最優(yōu)模型。 在利己主義與利他主義、財(cái)富可加性與財(cái)富效用可加性、精算公平定價(jià)與保費(fèi)附加定價(jià)等不同情境假設(shè)下,財(cái)富型養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)購買最優(yōu)模型有著一系列的最優(yōu)解。模型結(jié)果表明,即使在保費(fèi)精算公平定價(jià)和人們無遺產(chǎn)動(dòng)機(jī)的理想狀態(tài)下,人們也不一定選擇儲(chǔ)蓄完全年金化；而在其他情況下,儲(chǔ)蓄全部年金化通常不是人們的最優(yōu)選擇。財(cái)富型最優(yōu)模型的研究結(jié)果比雅瑞的結(jié)論更貼近實(shí)際。 財(cái)富型養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)購買最優(yōu)模型還研究了產(chǎn)品“三率”、政策支持與最優(yōu)養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)購買的關(guān)系。結(jié)果表明,除了死亡率可能與養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)購買成正向關(guān)系這一涉及投資動(dòng)機(jī)的特別結(jié)論外,費(fèi)用率、預(yù)期利率、遺產(chǎn)稅、所得稅等因素與養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)購買的相關(guān)關(guān)系與傳統(tǒng)判斷一致。 與以往壽險(xiǎn)需求眾多影響因素實(shí)證的研究思路不同,本文認(rèn)為保障動(dòng)機(jī)、儲(chǔ)蓄動(dòng)機(jī)和投資動(dòng)機(jī)直接影響著養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)購買。因此,選擇代表性指標(biāo)實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)三大動(dòng)機(jī)對(duì)于養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)購買的影響效應(yīng)更有意義。 論文使用OECD21個(gè)國家2007-2011年的面板數(shù)據(jù),實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)了養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)購買的三大動(dòng)機(jī)。結(jié)果表明,老齡化程度、人均GDP與商業(yè)年金保費(fèi)成明顯正向關(guān)系,老年人口數(shù)量與商業(yè)年金保費(fèi)成明顯反向關(guān)系,與預(yù)期完全一致。 論文還使用美國1977-2011年的時(shí)間序列數(shù)據(jù),考察了三大動(dòng)機(jī)以及稅收優(yōu)惠與養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)實(shí)際購買量之間的相關(guān)關(guān)系。結(jié)果表明,老齡化程度、實(shí)際人均GDP、實(shí)際稅收抵扣的變化與個(gè)人年金實(shí)際保費(fèi)成明顯正向關(guān)系,預(yù)期壽命與個(gè)人年金實(shí)際保費(fèi)成明顯反向關(guān)系,也與預(yù)期完全一致。 從1982年到2012年,41年間中國養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)保費(fèi)從11萬增長到1319億元,增速驚人。然而,商業(yè)養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)業(yè)務(wù)的發(fā)展歷程并不是一帆風(fēng)順,它既風(fēng)光無限,也有過坎坷。根據(jù)商業(yè)養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)業(yè)務(wù)的起伏,可以將其劃分為恢復(fù)期(1982-1992)、爬坡期(1993-2005)和增長期(2006至今)三個(gè)階段。今天,隨著行業(yè)對(duì)養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)業(yè)務(wù)的逐漸重視,商業(yè)養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)業(yè)務(wù)規(guī)模不斷擴(kuò)大,而且新管理、新產(chǎn)品、新思路不斷涌現(xiàn)。 當(dāng)前,中國養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)實(shí)踐面臨的最大問題是提供的養(yǎng)老產(chǎn)品和服務(wù)難以滿足人民群眾日益增長的多動(dòng)機(jī)購買需求。與世界最大的壽險(xiǎn)市場——美國相比,中國年金保險(xiǎn)產(chǎn)品比例明顯偏低,養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)產(chǎn)品供給不足。從2006至2011年,美國年金產(chǎn)品在壽險(xiǎn)產(chǎn)品中的比重一直保持在50%左右,而中國年金產(chǎn)品的比重卻從2006年的15.2%下降到2011年的11.7%。進(jìn)一步對(duì)比中美個(gè)人年金產(chǎn)品,會(huì)發(fā)現(xiàn)美國個(gè)人年金產(chǎn)品占?jí)垭U(xiǎn)產(chǎn)品的比重明顯高于中國的數(shù)據(jù),2011年中國的的比重為10.7%,僅為美國同期數(shù)據(jù)的31.1%。 推動(dòng)人們購買養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn),需要政府和行業(yè)的共同努力。從政府層面講,需要盡快出臺(tái)稅收遞延優(yōu)惠政策；從供給層面看,需要加快建立融合多動(dòng)機(jī)、提供多服務(wù)、涵蓋多產(chǎn)品的“三多”養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)產(chǎn)品和服務(wù)體系。 “多動(dòng)機(jī)”是指養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)新產(chǎn)品的開發(fā)需要考慮涵蓋保障動(dòng)機(jī)、儲(chǔ)蓄動(dòng)機(jī)和投資動(dòng)機(jī),全面滿足客戶需求。繳費(fèi)長期、給付終身、回報(bào)較高、低死亡保障是此類養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)產(chǎn)品的特色。 “多服務(wù)”是指保險(xiǎn)公司依托養(yǎng)老產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈延伸,借助養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)產(chǎn)品為客戶提供多種增值或者附加服務(wù)。保險(xiǎn)業(yè)作為參與老年保險(xiǎn)市場的排他性行業(yè),可以擴(kuò)展養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)產(chǎn)品所提供的服務(wù)范圍,除了傳統(tǒng)的給付責(zé)任等保險(xiǎn)服務(wù)外,還可以延伸至養(yǎng)老產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈的其他細(xì)分子市場,提供相關(guān)的增值養(yǎng)老服務(wù)。 “多產(chǎn)品”是指保險(xiǎn)公司通過建立養(yǎng)老社區(qū)整合多種保險(xiǎn)產(chǎn)品以及其他養(yǎng)老服務(wù)產(chǎn)品,實(shí)現(xiàn)經(jīng)營的范圍經(jīng)濟(jì)。保險(xiǎn)公司建立養(yǎng)老社區(qū),不僅可以提供承保業(yè)務(wù)中養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)、醫(yī)療保險(xiǎn)、護(hù)理保險(xiǎn)等保險(xiǎn)產(chǎn)品對(duì)應(yīng)的服務(wù),而且還可以通過提供住宅等其他服務(wù)提升投資業(yè)務(wù)效益。
[Abstract]:More than 10 percent of the population over the age of 60 and over is an important criterion for a country to enter the " ageing society " . In 1999 , China entered an ageing society . In the end of 2012 , China entered an ageing society . By the end of 2012 , China ' s 60 - year - old and older population increased by more than 65 million people . In the year of 2012 , China ' s 60 - year - old and older population increased by more than 65 million . In the year 2050 , China ' s 60 - year - old and older population will exceed 400 million , with an ageing level of more than 30 % .

The most common pension insurance system is the " three pillars " system proposed by the World Bank . But in China , the social basic endowment insurance of the first pillar is only big , the financial burden pressure is very difficult to sustain input , has caused the social widespread concern . The enterprise annuity of the second pillar is influenced by many factors such as economic situation fluctuation , the increase of enterprise cost pressure , the great difference of different enterprise system and so on . Therefore , it is urgent to develop the commercial endowment insurance of the third pillar .

Although the authoritative documents of the country have clearly stated that " insurance has the function of economic compensation , capital financing and social management " , it is the basic means of risk management under the market economy , but at present , insurance is not enough for the economic development , social stability and people ' s life . In the market economy , the rational demand side will certainly benefit from " profit " , and the old - age insurance consumer will not be the exception . Only the old - age insurance purchaser gets the " profit " he seeks , and the function of the endowment insurance can be truly and truly played .

The incentive for buying old - age insurance includes the motive of guarantee , the motive of saving and the motive of the investment . The guarantee motive means that people buy endowment insurance can avoid the decline of the quality of the old life in the future ;
Savings motivation means that people buy old - age insurance can realize the optimal consumption of longer life cycle ;
Investment motivation means that people buy old - age insurance can get the benefit . If people buy old - age insurance , the " risk " of long - life risk will bring " benefit " , from the view of security to obtain longevity guarantee , from the view of savings to obtain longevity benefit , from the investment perspective view as the student benefit .

One of the conclusions of savings motivation is the full year of savings , while the investment motivation is to pursue higher return on investment from the perspective of students . Obviously , savings motives , investment motives and financial asset allocation choices have a certain relationship . Financial asset allocation theory can be divided into consumer financial asset allocation theory and wealth - type financial asset allocation theory , the former pursues the maximization of wealth utility , which is proposed by Mark witz in 1952 ;
The latter seeks to maximize the utility of cross - period consumption , which is derived from a series of classical literature published between Merton 1969 - 1973 .

According to the perspective of consumer financial asset allocation theory , the research conclusion can be expressed as : savings are all configured as annuity assets are the optimal asset allocation choices . Although the conclusion of saving full year is widely questioned , and the concern about " the mystery of annuity " is raised , the modeling thinking and expansion direction of the purchase optimal model of consumption endowment insurance are still deeply rooted in most scholars .

If the endowment insurance is regarded as a kind of financial asset , then the endowment insurance can be used as a choice for the financial asset allocation when the wealth effect is maximized . Based on this , the paper establishes the optimal model of the wealth endowment insurance under the investment motivation .

Based on the different scenarios of egoism and egoism , the additivity of wealth and the additivity of wealth , actuarial fair pricing and premium added pricing , the optimal model of wealth - based endowment insurance has a series of optimal solutions .
In other cases , the full year of savings is usually not the best choice for people . The results of the optimal model of wealth are closer to reality than the conclusion of Jared ' s conclusion .

The results show that , besides the special conclusion that the death rate may be positively related to the purchase of endowment insurance , the relationship between the factors such as the rate of labor , the expected interest rate , the estate tax and income tax and the purchase of endowment insurance is consistent with the traditional judgment .

Different from the empirical research thinking of many influencing factors of life insurance demand , this paper holds that the motivation , saving motivation and investment motivation directly influence the purchase of old - age insurance . Therefore , it is more important to choose the three motives of representative index to test the effect of the three motives on the purchase of endowment insurance .

The paper uses the panel data of OECD21 countries 2007 - 2011 to empirically test the three motives of the purchase of endowment insurance . The results show that the aging degree , per capita GDP is positively related to the annual gold premium of the business year , and the number of the elderly population is inversely related to the premium premium of the business year , and is completely consistent with the expectation .

The paper also uses the time series data from 1977 to 2011 to examine the correlation between the three motives , the tax preference and the actual purchase quantity of endowment insurance . The result shows that the aging degree , the actual per capita GDP and the change of actual tax credit are positively related to the actual premium of personal annuity , and the life expectancy is obviously inverse relation with the actual premium of personal annuity .

From 1982 to 2012 , the insurance premiums of China ' s endowment insurance rose from 1.1 million yuan to $ 131.9 billion in 41 years . However , the development course of the business endowment insurance business is not smooth . It can be divided into three stages : recovery period ( 1982 - 1992 ) , climbing period ( 1993 - 2005 ) and long - term ( 2006 - present ) . Today , as the industry pays more attention to the old - age insurance business , the scale of the commercial endowment insurance business is constantly expanding , and the new management , new products and new ideas continue to emerge .

At present , the biggest problem facing China ' s endowment insurance practice is that the provision of pension products and services is difficult to meet the increasing demand for multi - motivation purchase of the people . Compared with the world ' s largest life insurance market , the proportion of gold - insurance products in China has been low and the supply of old - age insurance products is insufficient . From 2006 to 2011 , the proportion of gold products in China decreased from 15.2 % in 2006 to 11.7 % in 2011 .

To push people to buy old - age insurance , the joint efforts of the government and the industry are needed . At the government level , tax delay preferential policies need to be introduced as soon as possible ;
At the supply level , it is necessary to speed up the integration of multi - motivation and provide multi - service , covering more than three " multi - product " endowment insurance products and service systems .

The " multi - motivation " refers to the development of the new product of endowment insurance , which involves the insurance incentive , the savings motivation and the investment motivation to fully meet the customer ' s demand . The payment is long term , the benefit is long , the reward is high , and the low death guarantee is the characteristic of the old - age insurance product .

As an exclusive trade in the old insurance market , the insurance industry can extend the service range provided by the old - age insurance product . Besides the traditional insurance services such as the benefit liability , the insurance industry can extend to the other fine - molecular market of the old - age industry chain and provide relevant value - added care services .

" Multi - product " means the insurance company integrates various insurance products and other old - age service products through the establishment of the old - age community , and realizes the scope economy of the operation . The insurance company establishes the old - age community , not only can provide the service corresponding to the insurance products such as endowment insurance , medical insurance , nursing insurance and the like in the underwriting business , but also can improve the investment business benefit through the provision of other services such as residence .
【學(xué)位授予單位】：武漢大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F842.67

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1 ;養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)將全面覆蓋[J];兵團(tuán)黨校學(xué)報(bào);2000年01期

2 胡燕,黃余國,賈華忠;對(duì)我國養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)制度的幾點(diǎn)看法[J];華東交通大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào);2000年03期

3 陳建忠;滬企業(yè)注冊(cè)須辦養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)登記[J];兩岸關(guān)系;2000年10期

4 郝志中;辦理村干部養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)須規(guī)范[J];農(nóng)村財(cái)務(wù)會(huì)計(jì);2000年11期

5 黃文炎;建立我國農(nóng)村杜會(huì)養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)制度的政策取向[J];廣西梧州師范高等�？茖W(xué)校學(xué)報(bào);2000年04期

6 張居貴;實(shí)現(xiàn)養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)困難在哪里?[J];中州審計(jì);2000年10期

7 劉克錦;養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)為何玩不轉(zhuǎn)[J];經(jīng)濟(jì)月刊;2000年08期

8 王治;對(duì)完善和發(fā)展我國養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)的思考[J];煤炭企業(yè)管理;2000年02期

9 ;英國:人人參加養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)[J];領(lǐng)導(dǎo)決策信息;2000年07期

10 方毓棠;積極穩(wěn)妥推進(jìn)私營企業(yè)參加社會(huì)養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)[J];湖南省社會(huì)主義學(xué)院學(xué)報(bào);2000年04期

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2 楊倩;;完善養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn) 促進(jìn)西部大開發(fā)[A];陜西省經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)學(xué)會(huì)第20次年會(huì)暨理論研討會(huì)論文集[C];2000年

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6 楊洋;養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)制度的財(cái)務(wù)可持續(xù)研究[D];上海社會(huì)科學(xué)院;2009年

7 王媛;我國農(nóng)民參加農(nóng)村社會(huì)養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)影響因素分析[D];山東大學(xué);2009年

8 王學(xué)麗;我國養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)基金的籌集研究[D];山西財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué);2009年

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10 顏志生;農(nóng)村社會(huì)養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)適度水平研究[D];暨南大學(xué);2011年

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