本文選題：養(yǎng)老保險基金 + 制度因素��； 參考：《西南政法大學》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：我國城鎮(zhèn)職工基本養(yǎng)老保險制度從20世紀80年代開始試行到90年代建立統(tǒng)賬結合制度以來，取得了良好的發(fā)展。然而隨著我國人口結構的變化，人口老齡化社會的到來對我國城鎮(zhèn)職工基本養(yǎng)老保險制度的可持續(xù)發(fā)展形成了極大的挑戰(zhàn)。目前，我國城鎮(zhèn)職工基本養(yǎng)老保險的基金收入與支出及累計結余都保持穩(wěn)步增長，但支出的增長速度有快于收入增長速度的趨勢，并且由于各地區(qū)經(jīng)濟狀況及人口因素的不同，各地的養(yǎng)老保險基金的收支狀況也存在較大差距。在剔除財政對養(yǎng)老保險的補貼后，已有部分省份出現(xiàn)收不抵支的狀況，基金的可持續(xù)運營壓力大。 本文在對養(yǎng)老保險相關理論基礎分析的基礎上，構建了我國城鎮(zhèn)職工基本養(yǎng)老保險收支問題的因果關系圖及流程圖，在一定的假設基礎上模擬了2011—2050年基本養(yǎng)老保險基金賬戶規(guī)模的變化情況。同時考察了養(yǎng)老保險的制度因素：養(yǎng)老保險繳費率、養(yǎng)老金替代率、制度覆蓋面及退休年齡調(diào)整的情況下養(yǎng)老保險規(guī)模的變化情況。模擬預測結果顯示，若維持現(xiàn)的制度參數(shù)不變，在2043年前后，基本養(yǎng)老金將會出現(xiàn)年度收支缺口，后期隨著老齡人口的增多，基金缺口越來越大。覆蓋率的提高能顯著改善當期的基金收支狀況，但也會帶來后期的支付壓力。待遇水平的下降有利于制度的可持續(xù)性，但對保障職工退休后的生活產(chǎn)生不利的影響。延遲退休能在一定程度上緩解養(yǎng)老保險基金的支付壓力，但并不能解決基金收不抵支的困境。若待遇水平提高到合適水平，且制度覆蓋范圍及退休年齡的調(diào)緩慢增加時，能保持基金結余較長的增長期。對于制度因素調(diào)整的效果而言，在考慮基金投資收益的情況下，，快速調(diào)整的政策效果要優(yōu)于緩慢調(diào)整。通過比較基金年度收支與累計結余可以發(fā)現(xiàn)，基金投資收益水平的提高對于制度的可持續(xù)運營至關重要。 根據(jù)本文的研究結果，提出了降低養(yǎng)老保險繳費率，合理調(diào)整退休年齡，完善養(yǎng)老金計發(fā)辦法及拓寬養(yǎng)老保險基金的投資渠道，增強收益率以增強其保值增值能力的措施，以促進我國城鎮(zhèn)職工基本養(yǎng)老保險制度的可持續(xù)發(fā)展。
[Abstract]:The basic old-age insurance system for urban workers in China has made good progress since the beginning of the eighties of the 20th century and the establishment of the unified accounting system in the 1990s. However, with the change of population structure in our country, the arrival of aging society has posed a great challenge to the sustainable development of the basic old-age insurance system for urban workers in China. At present, the fund income, expenditure and accumulated balance of basic old-age insurance for urban workers in our country are increasing steadily, but the growth rate of expenditure is faster than that of income, and because of the different economic situation and population factors in different regions, The income and expenditure of endowment insurance fund of each place also exists big disparity. After excluding the financial subsidy to the old-age insurance, some provinces have a situation of non-payment, and the sustainable operation of the fund is under great pressure. Based on the analysis of the basic theory of endowment insurance, this paper constructs the causality diagram and flow chart of the income and expenditure of basic old-age insurance for urban workers in China. On the basis of certain assumptions, the paper simulates the changes in the size of the basic pension fund account in 2011-2050. At the same time, the paper examines the institutional factors of pension insurance, such as the contribution rate, the replacement rate, the coverage of the system and the change of the scale of the pension insurance under the condition of the adjustment of the retirement age. The simulation results show that if the current system parameters remain unchanged, there will be a gap in the annual income and expenditure of the basic pension around 2043. In the latter stage, with the increase of the aging population, the fund gap will become larger and bigger. The increase in coverage can significantly improve the current fund balance, but will also bring about late payment pressure. The decline of the treatment level is beneficial to the sustainability of the system, but it has a negative impact on the life of the employees after retirement. The delay in retirement can alleviate the payment pressure of pension fund to some extent, but it can not solve the fund's dilemma of over-charging. If the level of treatment is raised to the appropriate level and the coverage of the system and the adjustment of retirement age increase slowly, the longer growth period of fund balance can be maintained. For the effect of institutional adjustment, the policy effect of quick adjustment is better than that of slow adjustment when considering the investment income of fund. By comparing the annual income and expenditure of the fund with the accumulated balance, it can be found that the improvement of the investment income level of the fund is very important to the sustainable operation of the system. According to the research results of this paper, the paper puts forward some measures to reduce the contribution rate of pension insurance, to adjust the retirement age reasonably, to perfect the method of calculating and issuing pension, to widen the investment channel of pension insurance fund, and to strengthen the rate of return in order to enhance its ability to maintain and increase its value. In order to promote the sustainable development of the basic old-age insurance system for urban workers in China.
【學位授予單位】：西南政法大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F842.67

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