本文選題：水稻 + 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估�。� 參考：《中國農(nóng)業(yè)科學(xué)院》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：廣東作為我國自然災(zāi)害高發(fā)地區(qū)，每年因各種災(zāi)害造成的經(jīng)濟(jì)損失近120億元。與此同時(shí)，同樣作為經(jīng)濟(jì)強(qiáng)省和產(chǎn)糧大省，廣東農(nóng)業(yè)保險(xiǎn)開展遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)落后于浙江、江蘇等省，農(nóng)業(yè)保險(xiǎn)對(duì)恢復(fù)農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)、促進(jìn)農(nóng)村經(jīng)濟(jì)和保障農(nóng)民生活的緩沖作用遠(yuǎn)沒有得到發(fā)揮。為促進(jìn)農(nóng)業(yè)保險(xiǎn)在廣東快速發(fā)展，本研究以當(dāng)?shù)剞r(nóng)業(yè)主導(dǎo)產(chǎn)業(yè)之一水稻，主要從生產(chǎn)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)區(qū)劃和保險(xiǎn)費(fèi)率厘定三方面對(duì)廣東省水稻保險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行了相關(guān)研究。 首先，在風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估部分，，遵循“單產(chǎn)—趨勢—波動(dòng)—評(píng)估”范式，運(yùn)用直線滑動(dòng)平均計(jì)算廣東各地市早晚稻趨勢單產(chǎn)和波動(dòng)率，利用非參數(shù)信息擴(kuò)散模型評(píng)估水稻生產(chǎn)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。結(jié)果表明，廣東水稻生產(chǎn)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)區(qū)域性差別較大，如江門、湛江早稻生產(chǎn)損失率超過10%的概率分別高達(dá)0.103917和0.084829，而廣州僅0.030074；整體來講水稻單產(chǎn)減產(chǎn)10%以上的概率較�。辉绲旧a(chǎn)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)小于晚稻生產(chǎn)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。 其次，在風(fēng)險(xiǎn)區(qū)劃部分，利用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分散原則、對(duì)價(jià)交換理論和農(nóng)業(yè)氣象學(xué)理論，選取“有效灌溉率”、“旱澇保收率”、“年平均氣溫”、“年日照時(shí)數(shù)”、“單產(chǎn)變異系數(shù)”、“單產(chǎn)損失超過5%的概率”和“單產(chǎn)損失超過10%的概率”等11個(gè)指標(biāo)作為因子分析的初始分析指標(biāo)，利用因子分析和聚類分析，在對(duì)廣東水稻生產(chǎn)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估的基礎(chǔ)上開展風(fēng)險(xiǎn)區(qū)劃。根據(jù)綜合得分排名，將廣東20個(gè)水稻種植地市分為低風(fēng)險(xiǎn)區(qū)、較低風(fēng)險(xiǎn)區(qū)、一般風(fēng)險(xiǎn)區(qū)、較高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)區(qū)和高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)區(qū)5個(gè)等級(jí)。研究結(jié)果表明：整體而言，粵東和粵西沿海地區(qū)水稻生產(chǎn)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)最高，粵北山區(qū)次之，珠三角地區(qū)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)較低。 最后，在保險(xiǎn)費(fèi)率厘定部分，先擬合各地區(qū)早晚稻單產(chǎn)損失分布，再利用Matlab計(jì)算各地區(qū)純費(fèi)率。在水稻單產(chǎn)損失模型分布擬合和純費(fèi)率計(jì)算中，遵循“模型構(gòu)建—模型檢驗(yàn)—實(shí)證研究”，以@Risk中的40多個(gè)參數(shù)分布，經(jīng)統(tǒng)計(jì)檢驗(yàn)得出各地市早晚稻損失單產(chǎn)的最佳分布，再利用Matlab編程計(jì)算各地市早晚稻保險(xiǎn)純費(fèi)率。計(jì)算結(jié)果表明：與風(fēng)險(xiǎn)區(qū)劃研究結(jié)果類似，湛江、陽江、茂名、江門等沿海地區(qū)水稻保險(xiǎn)純費(fèi)率較大；韶關(guān)、肇慶、云浮等北部區(qū)域次之；廣州、佛山、東莞等珠三角地區(qū)水稻保險(xiǎn)純費(fèi)率最小。 本研究結(jié)果表明：（1）廣東各市早晚稻保險(xiǎn)純費(fèi)率在1.5%—2.5%之間，保障單產(chǎn)在300—400公斤/畝之間；且不同地區(qū)費(fèi)率差異較大，但當(dāng)前廣東水稻保險(xiǎn)實(shí)行的是全省統(tǒng)一費(fèi)率。（2）對(duì)水稻保險(xiǎn)實(shí)際業(yè)務(wù)，應(yīng)根據(jù)各地市早晚稻生產(chǎn)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的不同，制定分地區(qū)分品種的差異化保險(xiǎn)費(fèi)率。
[Abstract]:Guangdong, as a region with a high incidence of natural disasters, suffers an economic loss of nearly 12 billion yuan per year due to various disasters. At the same time, as a strong economic province and a big grain producing province, Guangdong's agricultural insurance development lags far behind that of Zhejiang and Jiangsu provinces. Agricultural insurance has been used to restore agricultural production. The buffering effect of promoting rural economy and protecting farmers' life is far from being brought into play. In order to promote the rapid development of agricultural insurance in Guangdong, rice insurance in Guangdong Province was studied from three aspects: production risk assessment, risk regionalization and premium rate determination. Firstly, in the part of risk assessment, following the paradigm of "unit yield-trend-fluctuation-assessment", the trend yield and volatility rate of early and late rice were calculated by linear moving average, and non-parametric information diffusion model was used to evaluate rice production risk. The results showed that there were significant regional differences in rice production risk in Guangdong Province, such as Jiangmen and Zhanjiang, where the probability of loss rate of early rice production was as high as 0.103917 and 0.084829, respectively, while that of Guangzhou was only 0.030074, and the probability of reducing rice yield per unit yield by more than 10% was smaller. The production risk of early rice is lower than that of late rice. Secondly, in the risk regionalization part, using the principle of risk dispersion, the theory of price exchange and the theory of agrometeorology, we select "effective irrigation rate", "waterlogging rate", "annual mean temperature", "annual sunshine time". "coefficient of variation per unit yield", "probability of loss per unit yield over 5%" and "probability of loss per unit yield over 10%" were used as the initial analysis indexes of factor analysis, using factor analysis and cluster analysis. On the basis of risk assessment of rice production in Guangdong Province, risk regionalization was carried out. According to the rank of comprehensive score, 20 rice planting cities in Guangdong were divided into five grades: low risk area, low risk area, general risk area, high risk area and high risk area. The results showed that the risk of rice production was the highest in the coastal areas of eastern Guangdong and western Guangdong, followed by the mountainous areas of northern Guangdong, and the risk was lower in the Pearl River Delta. Finally, in the part of premium rate determination, the distribution of loss per unit yield of early and late rice was fitted first, and then Matlab was used to calculate the net rate of each region. In the distribution fitting of rice yield loss model and the calculation of pure rate, the best distribution of loss per unit yield of early late rice was obtained by statistical test according to the distribution of more than 40 parameters in "model-examination-empirical study". The net rate of early and late rice insurance was calculated by Matlab programming. The calculated results show that, similar to the risk regionalization study, the pure rates of rice insurance in coastal areas such as Zhanjiang, Yangjiang, Maoming and Jiangmen are higher; Shaoguan, Zhaoqing, Yunfu and other northern regions are second; Guangzhou, Foshan, Dongguan and other Pearl River Delta area rice insurance net rate is the smallest. The results show that the net insurance rate of early and late rice in Guangdong Province is between 1.5% and 2.5%, and the guaranteed yield is between 300 kg and 400 kg / mu, and the rates vary greatly in different regions. However, the current rice insurance in Guangdong Province is based on the unified rate of the whole province. (2) the actual business of rice insurance should be based on the different risks of early and late rice production in different cities and cities, and the differential insurance rates for different regions and varieties should be established.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國農(nóng)業(yè)科學(xué)院
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F326.11;F842.66

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本文編號(hào)：1818891