發(fā)布時間：2018-04-25 13:30

  本文選題：“全面二孩”政策 + 職工醫(yī)保��； 參考：《上海財經大學學報》2017年05期

【摘要】：現(xiàn)階段,人口老齡化使得中國社會保險基金支付壓力不斷提高。為緩解老齡化程度并解決其帶來的相關問題,中國出臺"全面二孩"政策以替代原有的"單獨二孩"政策。文章以城鎮(zhèn)職工醫(yī)保為例,運用精算模型定量評估"全面二孩"政策對統(tǒng)籌基金的影響,研究發(fā)現(xiàn):(1)按照現(xiàn)行制度模式,如果繼續(xù)執(zhí)行"單獨二孩"政策,統(tǒng)籌基金將于2040年出現(xiàn)累計赤字,2065年累計赤字約為62.44萬億元;(2)實施"全面二孩"政策后,在不同生育意愿下,統(tǒng)籌基金出現(xiàn)累計赤字的時點沒有發(fā)生變化,但2065年累計赤字下降5.33%-40.73%;(3)進一步,如果自2022年起退休年齡每年延遲6個月直至達到65歲,在不同"全面二孩"生育意愿下,統(tǒng)籌基金出現(xiàn)累計赤字的時點將推遲7-25年,2065年累計赤字隨之降低63.59%-98.99%�？梢�,"全面二孩"政策能降低城鎮(zhèn)職工醫(yī)保統(tǒng)籌基金的累計赤字,為促進其可持續(xù)發(fā)展,可與延遲退休年齡等政策同步實施。
[Abstract]:At this stage, the aging population makes China's social insurance fund payment pressure is increasing. To ease the ageing and solve the related problems, China has introduced a "comprehensive two-child" policy to replace the original "single two-child" policy. Taking medical insurance for urban workers as an example, this paper quantitatively evaluates the impact of the "comprehensive two-child" policy on the overall fund by using an actuarial model. It is found that: 1) according to the current system model, if the policy of "single two-child" continues to be implemented, The overall fund will have a cumulative deficit in 2040. In 2065, the cumulative deficit was about 62.44 trillion yuan.) after the implementation of the "comprehensive two-child" policy, under different fertility intentions, the timing of the cumulative deficit of the overall plan fund has not changed. But in 2065, the cumulative deficit dropped 5.33% -40.73%) further. If the retirement age is delayed by six months a year since 2022 until reaching 65 years of age, under different "all-around two-child" wishes, The cumulative deficit will be delayed by 7-25 years, and the cumulative deficit in 2065 will be reduced by 63.59- 98.99. It can be seen that the "comprehensive two-child" policy can reduce the accumulated deficit of the medical insurance fund for urban staff and workers. In order to promote its sustainable development, it can be implemented simultaneously with the policy of delaying retirement age and so on.
【作者單位】： 中南財經政法大學公共管理學院;杭州電子科技大學會計學院;江蘇大學管理學院;
【基金】：國家社會科學基金“生育政策調整對我國社會保險基金可持續(xù)性的影響評估及相關對策研究”(15XRK005)
【分類號】：C924.21;F842.684
，

本文編號：1801542