本文選題：廣東省 + 贍養(yǎng)率�。� 參考：《廣東商學(xué)院》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：人口老齡化不僅是老年人口占總?cè)丝诘谋壤粩嗵岣叩倪^程，，而且也是基本養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)贍養(yǎng)率不斷提高的過程。贍養(yǎng)率在基本養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)理論和實(shí)踐中都占有重要地位，而廣東省是全國(guó)人口大省，因此，研究廣東省基本養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)贍養(yǎng)率的影響因素對(duì)全國(guó)養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)事業(yè)的發(fā)展具有經(jīng)濟(jì)意義。 首先，本文梳理了與基本養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)贍養(yǎng)率相關(guān)的概念及理論依據(jù)和現(xiàn)實(shí)依據(jù)，并結(jié)合廣東省基本養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)目前的發(fā)展水平、統(tǒng)籌現(xiàn)狀、實(shí)現(xiàn)統(tǒng)籌的阻力等，分析了廣東省基本養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)贍養(yǎng)率的現(xiàn)狀以及發(fā)展趨勢(shì)，從而為接下來對(duì)廣東省基本養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)贍養(yǎng)率影響因素的研究做好了理論鋪墊。 其次，本文重點(diǎn)分析了基本養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)贍養(yǎng)率的各項(xiàng)影響因素，包括：人口結(jié)構(gòu)、經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展水平、人口遷移、城市化水平、覆蓋率、征繳率、替代率等等，并且基于2003-2011年廣東省21個(gè)市的面板數(shù)據(jù)，利用GMM方法，對(duì)這些影響因素進(jìn)行了綜合分析；然后利用國(guó)際人口預(yù)測(cè)軟件對(duì)不同總和生育率、人口遷移率、城鎮(zhèn)化增長(zhǎng)率、不同退休政策等各種情況下的廣東省未來30年贍養(yǎng)率進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè)，接著以珠三角地區(qū)為例對(duì)“雙轉(zhuǎn)移”政策下的珠三角地區(qū)贍養(yǎng)率進(jìn)行了分析。 最后，研究表明在各項(xiàng)影響因素綜合作用下，廣東省基本養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)贍養(yǎng)率呈現(xiàn)出不斷增長(zhǎng)的趨勢(shì)，并有可能帶來基本養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)制度的支付危機(jī)，從而建議政府在制定基本養(yǎng)老政策時(shí)認(rèn)真考慮不同時(shí)期不同地區(qū)各項(xiàng)相關(guān)因素對(duì)贍養(yǎng)率的影響，積極采取擴(kuò)大覆蓋率和征繳率以及加快統(tǒng)籌步伐等項(xiàng)舉措，推動(dòng)廣東省基本養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)制度健康發(fā)展。 本文的創(chuàng)新性體現(xiàn)在不僅對(duì)影響贍養(yǎng)率的影響因素進(jìn)行了比較全面的分析，而且還結(jié)合了廣東省的產(chǎn)業(yè)政策對(duì)贍養(yǎng)率的影響進(jìn)行了具體的研究，包括廣東當(dāng)前的“雙轉(zhuǎn)移”政策，以及珠三角地區(qū)產(chǎn)業(yè)向其他地區(qū)轉(zhuǎn)移而引致人口遷移進(jìn)而影響贍養(yǎng)率的變化等，從而為養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)政策的制定提供參考。
[Abstract]:The aging of the population is not only a process of increasing the proportion of the aged population to the total population, but also a process of increasing the basic old-age insurance support rate.The maintenance rate plays an important role in the theory and practice of basic old-age insurance, and Guangdong Province is a large province with large population. Therefore, it is of economic significance to study the influencing factors of the basic old-age insurance support rate in Guangdong Province.First of all, this article combs the basic old-age insurance support rate related concept and the theory basis and the reality basis, and unifies the Guangdong Province basic endowment insurance present development level, the overall plan present situation, realizes the overall plan resistance and so on.This paper analyzes the current situation and development trend of the basic old-age insurance support rate in Guangdong Province, thus laying a good theoretical foundation for the next research on the influencing factors of the basic old-age insurance maintenance rate in Guangdong Province.Secondly, this paper focuses on the factors affecting the basic old-age insurance support rate, including: population structure, economic development level, population migration, urbanization level, coverage rate, levy rate, substitution rate, and so on.Based on the panel data of 21 cities in Guangdong Province from 2003 to 2011, this paper makes a comprehensive analysis of these influencing factors by using GMM method, and then uses the international population prediction software to analyze the different total fertility rate, population migration rate and urbanization growth rate.This paper forecasts the support rate of Guangdong Province in the next 30 years under different retirement policies, and then takes the Pearl River Delta region as an example to analyze the support rate in the Pearl River Delta region under the policy of "double transfer".Finally, the study shows that under the influence of various factors, the maintenance rate of basic old-age insurance in Guangdong Province shows a growing trend, and may bring about the payment crisis of the basic old-age insurance system.Therefore, it is suggested that the government should seriously consider the influence of various relevant factors in different regions in different periods on the support rate, actively take measures such as expanding coverage and collection rate, and speeding up the pace of overall planning when formulating basic pension policies.We will promote the healthy development of the basic old-age insurance system in Guangdong Province.The innovation of this paper is not only the comprehensive analysis of the factors affecting the maintenance rate, but also the specific research on the impact of the industrial policy of Guangdong Province on the maintenance rate.It includes the current "double transfer" policy in Guangdong and the changes in population migration resulting from the transfer of industries to other regions in the Pearl River Delta, which will provide a reference for the formulation of pension insurance policies.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：廣東商學(xué)院
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：D669.6;F842.67;D632.1

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