本文選題：農(nóng)業(yè)巨災(zāi)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)　切入點(diǎn)：風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分散機(jī)制　出處：《重慶大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：我國(guó)是一個(gè)農(nóng)業(yè)大國(guó)，也是農(nóng)業(yè)災(zāi)害十分頻繁的國(guó)家，發(fā)展和規(guī)范農(nóng)業(yè)巨災(zāi)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分散機(jī)制是保護(hù)我國(guó)農(nóng)民利益和實(shí)現(xiàn)農(nóng)業(yè)持續(xù)發(fā)展的重要保障。農(nóng)業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)具有多樣性、分散性、季節(jié)性等特點(diǎn)，相對(duì)其它行業(yè)而言，農(nóng)業(yè)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)不論是從風(fēng)險(xiǎn)數(shù)量、發(fā)生密度和管理難度上，都超過其它行業(yè)，風(fēng)險(xiǎn)很難有效控制，巨災(zāi)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)更是如此。長(zhǎng)期以來(lái)，我國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)營(yíng)管理一直忽視農(nóng)業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的研究和運(yùn)用，農(nóng)業(yè)巨災(zāi)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理更為匱乏，造成農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)營(yíng)方式、經(jīng)營(yíng)觀念和經(jīng)營(yíng)方法上的滯后。農(nóng)業(yè)巨災(zāi)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分散機(jī)制的發(fā)展創(chuàng)新將提高農(nóng)業(yè)巨災(zāi)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的管理水平與能力，穩(wěn)定農(nóng)業(yè)在國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)中的基礎(chǔ)地位，促進(jìn)農(nóng)業(yè)的可持續(xù)發(fā)展。 本文從農(nóng)業(yè)巨災(zāi)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)理論分析入手，分析了我國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)巨災(zāi)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分散機(jī)制現(xiàn)狀和存在的問題，在充分吸收國(guó)外農(nóng)業(yè)巨災(zāi)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分散機(jī)制的先進(jìn)經(jīng)驗(yàn)的前提下，結(jié)合我國(guó)國(guó)情，提出建立政府誘導(dǎo)型的農(nóng)業(yè)巨災(zāi)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分散機(jī)制的基本框架，分析了在此框架下農(nóng)業(yè)巨災(zāi)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的分散途徑，并就完善該機(jī)制提出應(yīng)當(dāng)采取的措施。最后以云南烤煙年產(chǎn)量數(shù)據(jù)為樣本，進(jìn)行了風(fēng)險(xiǎn)估計(jì)模型與定價(jià)方面的實(shí)證研究。 本文主要研究結(jié)論如下：1）農(nóng)業(yè)巨災(zāi)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)會(huì)給社會(huì)帶來(lái)災(zāi)難性的影響，因此對(duì)農(nóng)業(yè)巨災(zāi)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)給予足夠重視，充分研究農(nóng)業(yè)巨災(zāi)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的特點(diǎn)；2）農(nóng)業(yè)保險(xiǎn)市場(chǎng)的正常運(yùn)轉(zhuǎn)面臨巨災(zāi)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的威脅，解決的關(guān)鍵在于建立有效的農(nóng)業(yè)巨災(zāi)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分散機(jī)制；3）我國(guó)應(yīng)建立政府誘導(dǎo)型的農(nóng)業(yè)巨災(zāi)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分散機(jī)制，成立專門的農(nóng)業(yè)再保險(xiǎn)機(jī)構(gòu)，設(shè)立國(guó)家和省兩級(jí)的農(nóng)業(yè)巨災(zāi)基金，探索利用農(nóng)業(yè)巨災(zāi)證券化分散風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，政府不參與農(nóng)業(yè)保險(xiǎn)的經(jīng)營(yíng)，，而是以合理的政策引導(dǎo)農(nóng)業(yè)保險(xiǎn)市場(chǎng)正常運(yùn)行；4）農(nóng)業(yè)巨災(zāi)債券包含巨災(zāi)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，建立有效的巨災(zāi)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)估計(jì)模型是農(nóng)業(yè)巨災(zāi)債券發(fā)行的關(guān)鍵。根據(jù)債券定價(jià)模型和多年的即期利率，模擬多年期的巨災(zāi)債券價(jià)格，可為發(fā)行農(nóng)業(yè)巨災(zāi)債券定價(jià)做參考。
[Abstract]:China is a large agricultural country and a country with frequent agricultural disasters. Developing and standardizing the mechanism of agricultural catastrophe risk dispersion is an important guarantee to protect the interests of farmers and realize the sustainable development of agriculture. Agricultural risks are diversified and dispersed. Compared with other industries, the risk of agriculture is higher than that of other industries in terms of the number of risks, occurrence density and management difficulty, and it is difficult to effectively control the risks, especially the risk of catastrophe for a long time. The research and application of agricultural risk management has been neglected in our agricultural management, and the agricultural catastrophe risk management is even more scarce, resulting in the agricultural management mode. The development and innovation of agricultural catastrophe risk dispersion mechanism will improve the management level and ability of agricultural catastrophe risk, stabilize the basic position of agriculture in the national economy, and promote the sustainable development of agriculture. Based on the theoretical analysis of agricultural catastrophe risk, this paper analyzes the present situation and existing problems of agricultural catastrophe risk dispersal mechanism in China. On the premise of absorbing the advanced experience of agricultural catastrophe risk dispersing mechanism in foreign countries, the paper combines the situation of our country. This paper puts forward the basic framework of establishing the government-induced agricultural catastrophe risk dispersal mechanism, and analyzes the ways of agricultural catastrophe risk dispersion under this framework. Finally, taking the annual yield data of Yunnan flue-cured tobacco as a sample, an empirical study on risk estimation model and pricing is carried out. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: (1) Agricultural catastrophe risk will have a disastrous impact on society, so we should pay enough attention to agricultural catastrophe risk. Fully study the characteristics of Agricultural catastrophe risk 2) the normal operation of the agricultural insurance market is threatened by the catastrophe risk. The key to solve this problem lies in the establishment of an effective agricultural catastrophe risk dispersal mechanism. (3) China should establish a government-induced agricultural catastrophe risk dispersal mechanism, establish a special agricultural reinsurance institution, and establish a national and provincial agricultural catastrophe fund. Exploring the use of agricultural catastrophe securitization to disperse risk, the government does not participate in the management of agricultural insurance, but guides the normal operation of agricultural insurance market with reasonable policies. Establishing effective catastrophe risk estimation model is the key of agricultural catastrophe bond issuance. According to the bond pricing model and the spot interest rate for many years, the price of multi-year catastrophe bond can be simulated, which can be used as a reference for the pricing of agricultural catastrophe bond.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：重慶大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F842.66

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