【摘要】：人口老齡化問題在世界各國中已廣泛存在。近年來,為了應(yīng)對人口逐漸老齡化的趨勢,世界各國特別是老齡化程度比較嚴(yán)重的發(fā)達國家紛紛調(diào)整了自己法定的退休年齡。我國的人口老齡化問題也不容樂觀,在人口老齡化不斷加深的情況下,勞動力供給和需求狀況也發(fā)生了變化,同時也帶來了養(yǎng)老保險基金的短缺問題,養(yǎng)老制度改革早已被提上日程,如今,延遲退休也成為大勢所趨。我國關(guān)于延退的討論始于20世紀(jì)90年代的中期,之后一直被社會各界人士所關(guān)注,眾多學(xué)者對這一問題也開展過研究和討論。直到2016年初,人社部作出明確表示,延遲退休方案將會在2017年正式出臺,并且這一方案出臺后會有五年左右的過渡期,過渡期后才會正式實施。本文共分為七章。第一章為本文的緒論部分,包括選題的背景、意義、國內(nèi)外文獻綜述、研究方法與技術(shù)路線、創(chuàng)新點和不足之處。第二章為相關(guān)概念與理論基礎(chǔ)。對退休與退休年齡、延遲退休、勞動力市場、勞動力供給等進行了相應(yīng)的概念界定,闡述了與本文有關(guān)的生命周期理論、人力資本理論、延遲退休影響勞動力供給的理論機理。第三章為我國延遲退休政策與勞動力市場相關(guān)現(xiàn)狀分析。分析了我國現(xiàn)行退休政策的發(fā)展歷程、我國現(xiàn)行退休政策存在的問題、延遲退休政策的提出與發(fā)展以及我國當(dāng)前勞動力市場供給現(xiàn)狀。第四章為延遲退休對勞動力供給的影響分析。首先,從增加適齡勞動人口數(shù)量角度和延長人力資本回收期角度來證明延遲退休政策是可以帶來正面影響的;然后,驗證了延遲退休對勞動力市場供給的負面影響,即對年輕人就業(yè)情況可能產(chǎn)生的消極影響,這里運用了計量分析方法,證明了延遲退休政策對青年人就業(yè)所產(chǎn)生的擠出效應(yīng)。第五章為延遲退休的國際經(jīng)驗借鑒。首先歸納了國外實施延退政策的社會背景,重點列舉了美國、法國、英國等幾個典型發(fā)達國家的相關(guān)政策實施內(nèi)容,簡要對比部分OECD國家的相關(guān)政策實施內(nèi)容,然后提出了國際經(jīng)驗對于我國的啟發(fā)和可借鑒之處。第六章為延遲退休的政策建議,包括延遲退休政策實施的基本原則和推進措施兩個部分。第七章為本文的結(jié)論與展望。本文運用了文獻研究法、計量分析法、對比研究法,得出研究結(jié)論:延遲退休年齡對于我國的勞動力供給,既存在正面影響也存在負面影響。正面影響主要體現(xiàn)在增加我國適齡勞動人口數(shù)量和延長人力資本回收期兩個方面,負面影響主要體現(xiàn)在,退休年齡的延遲會在一定程度上對我國的就業(yè)起到阻礙作用,尤其是對青年人就業(yè)造成一定的不利影響。因此我國在制定延遲退休政策時,需要謹(jǐn)慎研究、統(tǒng)籌兼顧,將不利影響降低到最小的程度。
[Abstract]:The problem of population aging has been widespread in all countries of the world. In recent years, in order to cope with the trend of population aging, many countries in the world, especially the developed countries with serious aging, have adjusted their legal retirement age one after another. The aging of the population in our country is also not optimistic. With the deepening of the aging population, the supply and demand of the labor force has also changed, and at the same time, it has also brought about the shortage of the endowment insurance fund. Pension reform has long been on the agenda, and now delayed retirement has become an irresistible trend. The discussion on delay in China began in the mid-1990s, and has been concerned by people from all walks of life since then. Many scholars have also carried out research and discussion on this issue. Until early 2016, the Ministry made clear that the delayed retirement plan would be formally introduced in 2017, and that the plan would be followed by a transitional period of about five years, after which it would not be formally implemented. This paper is divided into seven chapters. The first chapter is the introduction of this paper, including the background, significance, domestic and foreign literature review, research methods and technical route, innovation and shortcomings. The second chapter is related concepts and theoretical basis. The concept of retirement and retirement age, delayed retirement, labor market, labor supply and so on are defined, and the life cycle theory, human capital theory, and the theoretical mechanism of delayed retirement affecting labor supply are expounded. The third chapter is the analysis of the present situation of delayed retirement policy and labor market in China. This paper analyzes on the development course of the current retirement policy in China, the problems existing in the current retirement policy in China, the proposal and development of the deferred retirement policy, and the present supply situation of the labor market in China. The fourth chapter is the analysis of the impact of delayed retirement on labor supply. First of all, from the perspective of increasing the number of working-age workers and extending the payback period of human capital, it is proved that the policy of delaying retirement can have a positive effect. Then, the negative impact of delayed retirement on the supply of the labour market, that is, the possible negative impact on the employment situation of young people, is verified, and the quantitative analysis method is used here. It is proved that the delayed retirement policy has an crowding-out effect on the employment of young people. The fifth chapter is the international experience of delayed retirement. Firstly, the paper summarizes the social background of the implementation of the deferred policy in foreign countries, emphatically enumerates the relevant policy implementation contents of several typical developed countries, such as the United States, France, Britain and so on, and makes a brief comparison of the relevant policy implementation contents of some OECD countries. Then it puts forward the inspiration and reference of international experience to our country. The sixth chapter is the policy suggestion of delaying retirement, which includes two parts: the basic principle of delay retirement policy implementation and the measures to promote it. The seventh chapter is the conclusion and prospect of this paper. By using the methods of literature research, econometric analysis and comparative study, this paper draws the conclusion that the delayed retirement age has both positive and negative effects on the supply of labor force in China. The positive effects are mainly reflected in the two aspects of increasing the number of working age workers and extending the payback period of human capital in our country. The negative effects are mainly reflected in the fact that the delay in retirement age will hinder the employment of our country to a certain extent. In particular, it has a certain negative impact on the employment of young people. Therefore, in formulating the delayed retirement policy, we need to study carefully and take into account all the factors, so as to reduce the adverse effects to a minimum.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：山東財經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號】：F249.2

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