【摘要】：京津冀一體化戰(zhàn)略的提出增強(qiáng)了區(qū)域與區(qū)域之間的交流與合作,并且提出要加快北京市、天津市以及河北省的統(tǒng)籌發(fā)展的步伐,北京-天津-河北地區(qū)已經(jīng)成為中國(guó)最大的城市群和經(jīng)濟(jì)核心區(qū)。北京是中國(guó)的政治文化中心,也是最重要的消費(fèi)城市,物流和商貿(mào)發(fā)展非常迅速,它們之間的協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展也成為許多專家和學(xué)者研究的熱點(diǎn)。物流業(yè)目前已經(jīng)逐漸成為一個(gè)綜合型的服務(wù)產(chǎn)業(yè),更是影響我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的重要部分。高效的物流業(yè)服務(wù)體系的構(gòu)建,對(duì)服務(wù)于民生、促進(jìn)商貿(mào)業(yè)的繁榮發(fā)展、以及推動(dòng)流通方式的改革具有舉足輕重的作用。同時(shí),商貿(mào)業(yè)的飛速發(fā)展會(huì)增加對(duì)物流服務(wù)的需求,從而對(duì)現(xiàn)代物流業(yè)的發(fā)展有一個(gè)促進(jìn)作用。這種商貿(mào)業(yè)與物流業(yè)之間的協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展,對(duì)于二者之間的優(yōu)勢(shì)互補(bǔ)和資源共享,具有一定的積極作用。在京津冀一體化背景下,協(xié)調(diào)好北京市物流業(yè)和商貿(mào)業(yè)的發(fā)展?fàn)顩r,可以使資源要素達(dá)到合理的流動(dòng),實(shí)現(xiàn)協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展的最優(yōu)效果。本文重點(diǎn)圍繞京津冀一體化下北京市物流業(yè)和商貿(mào)業(yè)之間的協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展情況展開研究。以北京市物流業(yè)和商貿(mào)業(yè)的協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展系統(tǒng)為主要研究對(duì)象,在京津冀一體化的大背景下分析兩行業(yè)協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展情況,主要研究?jī)?nèi)容如下:首先,本文論述了京津冀一體化政策對(duì)京津冀區(qū)域協(xié)同發(fā)展格局的影響,并且從北京當(dāng)前的空間形態(tài)布局出發(fā),基于產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)移和疏解政策分析了其對(duì)北京市物流業(yè)和商貿(mào)業(yè)帶來的影響,以及對(duì)兩業(yè)之間的協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展帶來的影響。其次,在分析京津冀一體化政策的影響基礎(chǔ)上,結(jié)合該背景政策,以北京市2011年到2015年兩業(yè)的數(shù)據(jù)為基礎(chǔ),從物流業(yè)和商貿(mào)業(yè)的投入、產(chǎn)出和效率三個(gè)維度對(duì)兩者之間協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展的因果關(guān)系進(jìn)行了檢驗(yàn),對(duì)兩行業(yè)相互支持、相互依存、共同發(fā)展的協(xié)調(diào)關(guān)系現(xiàn)狀進(jìn)行了定量研究,并在此基礎(chǔ)上建立了兩業(yè)各自相應(yīng)的評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系,進(jìn)而構(gòu)建出北京市物流業(yè)和商貿(mào)業(yè)協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展的耦合協(xié)調(diào)度模型,并給出了耦合協(xié)調(diào)度的等級(jí)劃分標(biāo)準(zhǔn)。最后,本文應(yīng)用系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)模型對(duì)京津冀一體化下部分指標(biāo)的變化進(jìn)行仿真模擬以及相應(yīng)的預(yù)測(cè),結(jié)合耦合協(xié)調(diào)度模型得到2011年-2020年北京市兩業(yè)的綜合發(fā)展水平以及耦合協(xié)調(diào)度,并對(duì)物流基地疏解面積影響因子和商品交易市場(chǎng)疏解面積影響因子系數(shù)的影響程度進(jìn)行了分析。
[Abstract]:The proposal of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei integration strategy has enhanced exchanges and cooperation between regions, and has proposed to accelerate the overall development of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei. Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei has become China's largest urban agglomeration and economic core area. Beijing is the political and cultural center of China and the most important consumer city. Logistics and commerce are developing very rapidly. The coordinated development between them has become a hot spot of many experts and scholars. Logistics industry has gradually become a comprehensive service industry and an important part of our economic development. The construction of efficient logistics service system plays an important role in serving people's livelihood, promoting the prosperity and development of commerce and commerce, and promoting the reform of circulation mode. At the same time, the rapid development of trade will increase the demand for logistics services, thus promoting the development of modern logistics industry. The coordinated development of this trade and logistics industry plays a positive role in complementing each other and sharing resources. Under the background of the integration of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei, coordinating the development of logistics industry and commerce industry in Beijing can make the resource elements flow reasonably and realize the optimal effect of coordinated development. This paper focuses on the coordinated development of logistics industry and commerce industry under the integration of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei. Taking the coordinated development system of logistics industry and commerce industry in Beijing as the main research object, under the background of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei integration, the coordinated development of the two industries is analyzed. The main research contents are as follows: first, This paper discusses the influence of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei integration policy on the coordinated development pattern of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, and proceeds from the present spatial pattern of Beijing. Based on the policy of industry transfer and deconstruction, this paper analyzes the impact on the logistics industry and commerce industry in Beijing, as well as on the coordinated development between the two industries. Secondly, on the basis of analyzing the impact of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei integration policy and combining the background policy, based on the data of the two industries in Beijing from 2011 to 2015, from the input of the logistics and trade industries, The three dimensions of output and efficiency test the causality of the coordinated development between the two industries, and make a quantitative study on the current situation of the coordination relationship between the two industries, which supports each other, depends on each other, and develops together. On this basis, the corresponding evaluation index system of the two industries is established, and then the coupling coordination degree model of the coordinated development of logistics industry and commerce industry in Beijing is established, and the classification standard of coupling coordination degree is given. Finally, the system dynamics model is used to simulate and predict the change of some indexes under the integration of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei. Combined with the coupling coordination degree model, the comprehensive development level and coupling coordination degree of the two industries in Beijing from 2011 to 2020 are obtained. The influence degree of the influence factor of the area of logistics base and the factor coefficient of the factor of clearing area in the commodity trading market is analyzed.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：北京交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F259.27;F727

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