【摘要】：能源是經(jīng)濟發(fā)展、人類生存所必要的資源。在不久的將來,我國將全面完成工業(yè)化與城鎮(zhèn)化進程,實現(xiàn)現(xiàn)代化,這毫無疑問必將會導(dǎo)致能源消耗的大幅度增加。我國雖然能源貯藏總量大,但人均能源占有量仍顯不足,能源前景仍然不容樂觀,因此需要加快轉(zhuǎn)變能源發(fā)展方式,調(diào)整能源消費結(jié)構(gòu)與能源生產(chǎn)結(jié)構(gòu)。對玉溪市能源消費進行科學(xué)地研究與節(jié)能潛力分析,這對于能源的正確監(jiān)管與規(guī)劃,促進玉溪市地區(qū)生產(chǎn)總值的增加,構(gòu)建和諧社會和節(jié)約型社會,具有十分重要的意義。本文通過對玉溪市能源利用現(xiàn)狀進行分析,2010-2015年,玉溪市經(jīng)濟平穩(wěn)增長,能耗水平不斷降低,產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)不斷優(yōu)化。通過設(shè)定高、中、低三種能源消費預(yù)測模式,分析和探討玉溪市能源消費量的變化特征,對玉溪市結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整節(jié)能潛力、技術(shù)進步節(jié)能潛力、管理節(jié)能潛力、能源結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整節(jié)能潛力進行分析研究。由測算結(jié)果可以看出,在全市GDP年均增長9%的方案下,到2020年三次產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整后將比2015年存在節(jié)能潛力809.42萬噸標準煤。玉溪市二產(chǎn)所占比重較一、三產(chǎn)較高,一、三產(chǎn)比重還有較大提升空間,玉溪市結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整節(jié)能潛力主要來自一產(chǎn)和三產(chǎn);玉溪市工業(yè)在保持快速增長的基礎(chǔ)上,通過工業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化和調(diào)整,能源消費總量增長可得到有效控制。2020年優(yōu)化調(diào)整后,工業(yè)內(nèi)部可實現(xiàn)節(jié)約能源173.4萬噸標準煤;從能耗預(yù)測與節(jié)能潛力分析后得出了玉溪市能源系統(tǒng)存在的問題,并對玉溪市能源產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展提出了詳細的對策及建議。首先,本文論述了能源問題與社會協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展之間的關(guān)系,分析了玉溪市能源發(fā)展的現(xiàn)狀。第二,設(shè)定了高、中、低三種能源消費預(yù)測模式,以三種能源模式情景的推算結(jié)果做比較,分析和探討玉溪市能源消費量的變化特征。第三,對玉溪市結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整節(jié)能潛力、技術(shù)進步節(jié)能潛力、管理節(jié)能潛力、能源結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整節(jié)能潛力進行分析研究。最后,從加快推進轉(zhuǎn)方式、調(diào)結(jié)構(gòu)、推進節(jié)能技術(shù)進步、加強重點用能單位節(jié)能管理等各方面提出了相關(guān)對策與建議。
[Abstract]:Energy is the necessary resource for economic development and human survival. In the near future, China will complete the process of industrialization and urbanization, realize modernization, which will undoubtedly lead to a large increase in energy consumption. Although the total amount of energy storage in China is large, the per capita energy possession is still insufficient, and the energy prospect is still not optimistic. Therefore, it is necessary to accelerate the transformation of energy development mode and adjust the energy consumption structure and energy production structure. The scientific research and energy saving potential analysis of energy consumption in Yuxi City is of great significance to the correct supervision and planning of energy resources, the promotion of the increase of the gross domestic product of Yuxi City, and the construction of a harmonious society and a saving society. This paper analyzes the present situation of energy utilization in Yuxi City. From 2010 to 2015, the economy of Yuxi City grows steadily, the level of energy consumption decreases and the industrial structure is optimized. By setting high, middle and low energy consumption forecasting modes, the change characteristics of energy consumption in Yuxi City are analyzed and discussed, and the structural adjustment potential, technological improvement potential and management potential of energy saving are analyzed and discussed in Yuxi City. Energy structure adjustment and energy conservation potential are analyzed and studied. It can be seen from the calculation results that under the scheme of annual GDP growth of 9% in the whole city, there will be 8.0942 million tons of standard coal energy saving potential compared with 2015 after three industrial structure adjustment in 2020. The proportion of the second production in Yuxi is higher than that in the first and the third, and the proportion of the first and third production still has great room for improvement. The energy saving potential of the structure adjustment in Yuxi mainly comes from one industry and three industries. Based on the rapid growth of Yuxi industry, the growth of total energy consumption can be effectively controlled through the optimization and adjustment of industrial structure. After the optimization and adjustment in 2020, energy saving of 1.734 million tons of standard coal can be realized within the industry. Based on the analysis of energy consumption prediction and energy saving potential, the existing problems of energy system in Yuxi City are obtained, and the detailed countermeasures and suggestions for the development of energy industry in Yuxi City are put forward. Firstly, this paper discusses the relationship between energy problems and social coordinated development, and analyzes the present situation of energy development in Yuxi. Secondly, three kinds of energy consumption prediction models are set up, which are high, middle and low energy consumption, and the change characteristics of energy consumption in Yuxi are analyzed and discussed by comparing the calculated results of three energy model scenarios. Thirdly, the energy saving potential of structural adjustment, technological progress, management energy saving and energy structure adjustment of Yuxi City are analyzed and studied. Finally, the countermeasures and suggestions are put forward from the aspects of speeding up the transformation mode, adjusting the structure, promoting the progress of energy-saving technology and strengthening the energy-saving management of key energy-using units.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：昆明理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F206

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