【摘要】：我國(guó)城市正處在快速發(fā)展的過(guò)程中,隨著城市化水平的不斷提高,城市人口增長(zhǎng)過(guò)快,城市規(guī)模不斷擴(kuò)大,城市資源告急,城市環(huán)境質(zhì)量下降等一系列問(wèn)題也隨之產(chǎn)生。這些城市問(wèn)題已經(jīng)影響到城市的可持續(xù)發(fā)展,城市綜合承載力是衡量城市可持續(xù)發(fā)展的標(biāo)準(zhǔn),因此城市綜合承載力引起了人們的高度關(guān)注。本文以新疆14個(gè)地州市的中心城市為研究靶區(qū),將研究區(qū)分為北疆、南疆、東疆三大區(qū),北疆代表城市:烏魯木齊市、克拉瑪依市、昌吉市、博樂(lè)市、塔城市、伊寧市和阿勒泰市7個(gè)城市,南疆代表城市庫(kù)爾勒市、阿克蘇市、和田市、阿圖什市和喀什市5個(gè)城市,東疆代表城市吐魯番市和哈密市2個(gè)城市�；�2006-2015年10年間的數(shù)據(jù),選取資源、生態(tài)環(huán)境和社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)三個(gè)一級(jí)指標(biāo),水資源、土地資源、生態(tài)、資源、社會(huì)和經(jīng)濟(jì)6個(gè)二級(jí)指標(biāo),25個(gè)具體指標(biāo)構(gòu)建城市綜合承載力的評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系。首先通過(guò)變異系數(shù)法和熵權(quán)法的綜合賦權(quán)法計(jì)算出各指標(biāo)層的權(quán)重。其次運(yùn)用非線性加權(quán)綜合評(píng)價(jià)法和TOPSISI模型分別測(cè)度新疆14個(gè)地州市中心城市的綜合承載力水平和承載質(zhì)量,分析城市綜合承載力水平是否與承載力質(zhì)量一致。然后運(yùn)用協(xié)調(diào)度對(duì)城市綜合承載力系統(tǒng)的內(nèi)部結(jié)構(gòu)進(jìn)行分析。分別評(píng)價(jià)北疆、南疆和東疆三個(gè)研究區(qū)的城市綜合承載力,主要研究成果包括以下幾個(gè)方面:(1)通過(guò)綜合指數(shù)法構(gòu)建新疆14個(gè)地州市中心城市的綜合承載力指數(shù)模型,分析2006-2015年間城市綜合承載力的變化趨勢(shì)。結(jié)果表明:無(wú)論是北疆城市、南疆城市還是東疆城市的綜合承載力水平都普遍存在波動(dòng)上升的趨勢(shì),但是整體承載水平不是很高,其中北疆城市、南疆城市和東疆城市綜合承載力水平提高的平均波動(dòng)值分別是0.31,0.32,0.28。(2)運(yùn)用TOPSISI模型分析新疆城市綜合承載力的質(zhì)量,研究結(jié)果表明:整體上新疆城市承載力質(zhì)量的變化趨勢(shì)與承載力水平基本保持一致,都呈現(xiàn)出波動(dòng)上升的趨勢(shì)。其中北疆城市、南疆城市、東疆城市的城市綜合承載力的貼近度都更加偏離負(fù)理想解,逐漸靠近正理想解,表明隨著時(shí)間的變化城市綜合承載力的質(zhì)量都在不斷地變好。(3)在時(shí)間序列上14個(gè)地州市的中心城市之間的綜合承載力的差異在波動(dòng)中先擴(kuò)大后減小,在空間分布上,呈現(xiàn)出東疆城市優(yōu)于北疆城市,北疆城市優(yōu)于南疆城市的布局。在北疆城市中克拉瑪依市的各項(xiàng)承載力都比較高,南疆則是庫(kù)爾勒市的承載力較高,東疆城市中吐魯番市與哈密市的承載力不相上下,吐魯番市的綜合承載能力略?xún)?yōu)于哈密市。(4)根據(jù)評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系的科學(xué)性、完整性、可操作性等原則,構(gòu)建新疆城市綜合承載力評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系。城市綜合承載力內(nèi)部以資源承載力、生態(tài)環(huán)境承載力、社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)承載力三大系統(tǒng)進(jìn)行解構(gòu),研究結(jié)果表明:制約新疆14個(gè)地州市中心城市承載力的主要因素是不盡相同的,且各個(gè)城市綜合承載力的優(yōu)勢(shì)承載因素也不同。(5)運(yùn)用協(xié)調(diào)度分析城市綜合承載力的內(nèi)部協(xié)調(diào)程度,結(jié)果表明:新疆14個(gè)地州市的中心城市綜合承載力各系統(tǒng)層指標(biāo)的協(xié)調(diào)度均達(dá)到良好協(xié)調(diào),其中庫(kù)爾勒市屬于優(yōu)質(zhì)協(xié)調(diào),其它城市均屬于良好協(xié)調(diào)。說(shuō)明新疆各城市內(nèi)部均能達(dá)到良好協(xié)調(diào),系統(tǒng)內(nèi)部協(xié)調(diào)性好。城市綜合承載力三個(gè)子系統(tǒng),生態(tài)環(huán)境承載力和社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)承載力子系統(tǒng)屬于良好協(xié)調(diào),最差的是資源承載力屬于一般協(xié)調(diào)。說(shuō)明新疆14個(gè)城市間的綜合承載力系統(tǒng)的協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展建設(shè)程度較低,城市綜合承載力各系統(tǒng)均需要進(jìn)一步加強(qiáng)它的協(xié)調(diào)建設(shè),尤其要重視資源承載力子系統(tǒng)的協(xié)調(diào)建設(shè)。
[Abstract]:China's cities are in the process of rapid development, along with the increasing urbanization level, the urban population has been growing rapidly, the city scale is expanding, the city resources are urgent, the urban environmental quality decline and so on a series of problems. These urban problems have affected the sustainable development of the city, the comprehensive bearing capacity of the city is the standard to measure the sustainable development of the city, so the comprehensive carrying capacity of the city has caused the people's high concern. Based on the central city of 14 cities in Xinjiang, this paper divides the study into three regions of North Xinjiang, South Xinjiang, East Xinjiang, and the representative cities of North Xinjiang: Urumqi, Karamay City, Changji City, Bolle City, Tcity, Yining City and Aletai City 7 cities. South Xinjiang represents the city of Korla city, Aksu city, Hetian city, Atush city and Kashgar city in 5 cities, east Xinjiang represents city of Turpan city and cantoncity 2 cities. Based on the data from 2006 to 2015, resources, ecological environment and socio-economic indicators, water resources, land resources, ecology, resources, social and economic indicators, and 25 concrete indicators were selected to construct the evaluation index system of urban comprehensive bearing capacity. Firstly, the weights of each index layer are calculated by the method of coefficient of variation and the comprehensive weighting method of entropy weight method. Secondly, using the nonlinear weighted comprehensive evaluation method and TOPSIS model to measure the comprehensive bearing capacity and bearing quality of the cities in 14 prefectures and cities in Xinjiang, and analyze whether the comprehensive bearing capacity of cities is consistent with the quality of bearing capacity. Then the internal structure of the urban comprehensive bearing capacity system is analyzed with the coordination degree. The comprehensive bearing capacity of the cities in the three research areas of North Xinjiang, South Xinjiang and East Xinjiang is evaluated. The main research results include the following aspects: (1) constructing the comprehensive bearing capacity index model of the urban center cities in 14 prefectures in Xinjiang through the comprehensive index method; The trend of urban comprehensive bearing capacity during 2006-2015 was analyzed. The results show that the overall bearing capacity is not very high, but the whole bearing level is not very high, in the north Xinjiang city, the south Xinjiang city or the east Xinjiang city, but the whole bearing level is not very high, among which the Beijiang city, The average fluctuation values of comprehensive bearing capacity of urban and eastern Xinjiang were 0. 31, 0. 32, 0. 28, respectively. (2) Using TOPISI model to analyze the quality of the comprehensive bearing capacity of Xinjiang city, the research results show that the change trend of the quality of the urban bearing capacity in Xinjiang is basically consistent with the bearing capacity level, and the trend of fluctuation rise is presented. Among them, the close degree of urban comprehensive bearing capacity of Beijiang city, Nanjiang city and east Xinjiang is more deviated from the negative ideal solution, gradually close to the positive ideal solution, indicating that the quality of the comprehensive bearing capacity of the city is changing continuously over time. (3) The difference of the comprehensive bearing capacity between the central cities of the 14 cities in the time series is reduced in the fluctuation, and in the spatial distribution, it shows that the east Xinjiang city is better than the Beijiang city, and the north Xinjiang city is superior to the layout of the south Xinjiang city. In the northern Xinjiang city, the bearing capacity of Karamay City is relatively high, and south Xinjiang is the capacity of Kuerle City. The capacity of Turpan City in East Xinjiang is equal to that of hami city, and the comprehensive bearing capacity of Turpan City is slightly better than that of hami city. (4) To construct comprehensive evaluation index system of urban comprehensive bearing capacity in Xinjiang according to the principles of scientific, completeness and operability of evaluation index system. The results show that the main factors which restrict the urban carrying capacity of 14 prefectures and cities in Xinjiang are different. and the advantages of the comprehensive bearing capacity of each city are different. (5) Using the coordination degree to analyze the internal coordination degree of the urban comprehensive bearing capacity, the results show that the coordination degree of each system level indicator of the central city comprehensive bearing capacity of 14 cities in Xinjiang is well coordinated, among which Korla City belongs to high-quality coordination, and other cities belong to good coordination. It is pointed out that the interior of all cities in Xinjiang can achieve good coordination, and the internal coordination of the system is good. The three subsystems of urban comprehensive bearing capacity, the ecological environment carrying capacity and the social economic bearing capacity subsystem belong to good coordination, and the worst is that the resource carrying capacity belongs to general coordination. It is pointed out that the coordinated development degree of the comprehensive bearing capacity system between 14 cities in Xinjiang is low, and each system of the comprehensive bearing capacity of the city needs to further strengthen its coordination construction, especially the coordination and construction of the resource carrying capacity subsystem.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：新疆大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F299.27

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