基于LSSVM改進(jìn)模型的北京市能源消費預(yù)測研究
發(fā)布時間：2018-10-23 07:33
【摘要】：目前,京津冀協(xié)同發(fā)展提升為國家頂級發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略,其中產(chǎn)業(yè)協(xié)同發(fā)展是京津冀協(xié)同發(fā)展的重要先行工作。然而,京津冀產(chǎn)業(yè)協(xié)同發(fā)展中存在擴(kuò)散效應(yīng)弱、產(chǎn)業(yè)重疊、環(huán)境污染嚴(yán)重、資源綜合利用效率低等問題,經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展與資源環(huán)境約束的矛盾已成為京津冀產(chǎn)業(yè)協(xié)同發(fā)展面臨的主要矛盾。北京作為京津冀協(xié)同發(fā)展的核心,近年來飽受人口增長、交通擁堵、空氣污染等“城市病”的困擾。為解決經(jīng)濟(jì)、資源和環(huán)境問題,做好能源消費管理是關(guān)鍵。本文研究北京市能源消費影響因素及其發(fā)展趨勢預(yù)測,根據(jù)研究結(jié)果提出在京津冀協(xié)同發(fā)展背景下北京市能源消費管理的提升策略,對于北京“大城市病”的解決,產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)移政策的制定,京津冀協(xié)同發(fā)展的推進(jìn),具有重要的現(xiàn)實意義。本文以京津冀協(xié)同發(fā)展下的北京市能源消費為研究對象,基于1995—2014年的歷史數(shù)據(jù),在深入分析北京市能源消費發(fā)展變化情況和現(xiàn)狀的基礎(chǔ)上,研究北京能源消費的主要影響因素并據(jù)此進(jìn)行發(fā)展趨勢的預(yù)測。首先,本文在梳理國內(nèi)外研究現(xiàn)狀的基礎(chǔ)上,對能源消費及預(yù)測理論方法進(jìn)行了分析闡述;其次,立足于京津冀協(xié)同發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略下,闡述了北京市的功能定位,并對北京市能源消費及其影響因素進(jìn)行了分析,剖析了各變量逐年變化情況及原因;在此基礎(chǔ)上,利用LMDI分解模型從三次產(chǎn)業(yè)能源消費和生活消費能源兩個角度,將北京市能源消費量分解為人口效應(yīng)、經(jīng)濟(jì)水平效應(yīng)、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)效應(yīng)、生產(chǎn)能源消費強(qiáng)度、居民消費效應(yīng)和生活能源消費強(qiáng)度六個方面,并定量測算各因素對能源消費的貢獻(xiàn)程度,得到正向驅(qū)動的因素主要有人口效應(yīng)、經(jīng)濟(jì)水平效應(yīng)、居民消費效應(yīng);負(fù)向驅(qū)動因素主要包括產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)效應(yīng)、生產(chǎn)能源消費強(qiáng)度、生活能源消費強(qiáng)度。并依照結(jié)果分析各個因素對能源消費的影響機(jī)制,就此運用布谷鳥算法優(yōu)化的最小二乘支持向量機(jī)算法構(gòu)建相應(yīng)的能源消費預(yù)測模型。最后,立足于京津冀協(xié)同發(fā)展,依據(jù)北京市發(fā)展的歷史情況、相關(guān)規(guī)劃政策定義了基準(zhǔn)情景和有效協(xié)同發(fā)展發(fā)展兩種不同情景,并針對不同情景發(fā)展水平的不同設(shè)置了不同的人口、實際GDP、第三產(chǎn)業(yè)比重、能源消費強(qiáng)度、居民消費水平等參數(shù)。而后利用預(yù)測模型對2015-2020年北京市能源消費量進(jìn)行預(yù)測,得到如下結(jié)果:到2020年,在基準(zhǔn)情景下,北京市能源消費總量可達(dá)8256萬噸標(biāo)準(zhǔn)煤。在有效協(xié)同發(fā)展下,總量為7894萬噸標(biāo)準(zhǔn)煤。最后,根據(jù)研究結(jié)果提出在京津冀協(xié)同發(fā)展背景下北京市能源消費發(fā)展的提升策略。
[Abstract]:At present, the coordinated development of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei has become the top development strategy of the country, and the industry coordinated development is the important advance work of the coordinated development of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei. However, in the coordinated development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei industry, there are some problems, such as weak diffusion effect, overlapping industries, serious environmental pollution, low efficiency of comprehensive utilization of resources, etc. The contradiction between economic development and resource and environmental constraints has become the main contradiction that Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei industries are facing. As the core of the coordinated development of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei, Beijing has been plagued by urban diseases such as population growth, traffic congestion and air pollution in recent years. In order to solve the economic, resource and environmental problems, energy consumption management is the key. This paper studies the influencing factors of Beijing's energy consumption and forecasts its development trend. According to the research results, it puts forward the promotion strategy of Beijing's energy consumption management under the background of the coordinated development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, so as to solve the problem of "big city disease" in Beijing. The formulation of industrial transfer policy and the promotion of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei coordinated development have important practical significance. Based on the historical data from 1995 to 2014, this paper takes the energy consumption of Beijing under the coordinated development of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei as the research object, and analyzes the changes and the present situation of the energy consumption in Beijing. The main influencing factors of energy consumption in Beijing are studied and the development trend is forecasted accordingly. Firstly, on the basis of combing the current research situation at home and abroad, this paper analyzes and expounds the energy consumption and prediction theory. Secondly, based on the cooperative development strategy of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei, it expounds the function orientation of Beijing. Based on the analysis of the energy consumption and its influencing factors in Beijing, and the analysis of the changes and reasons of each variable year by year, this paper uses the LMDI decomposition model to analyze the energy consumption of the tertiary industry and the energy consumption from the perspective of daily energy consumption. The energy consumption in Beijing is divided into six aspects: population effect, economic level effect, industrial structure effect, production energy consumption intensity, resident consumption effect and living energy consumption intensity. Quantificationally measuring the contribution of various factors to energy consumption, we can get that the positive driving factors mainly include population effect, economic level effect, resident consumption effect, negative driving factors mainly include industrial structure effect, production energy consumption intensity, Energy consumption intensity. According to the results, the influence mechanism of various factors on energy consumption is analyzed, and the prediction model of energy consumption is constructed by using the least squares support vector machine (LS-SVM) algorithm optimized by cuckoo algorithm. Finally, based on the coordinated development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, and according to the historical situation of Beijing's development, the relevant planning policies define two different scenarios, the benchmark scenario and the effective coordinated development scenario. Different population, actual GDP, tertiary industry proportion, energy consumption intensity, resident consumption level and other parameters are set according to the different development level of different scenarios. Then the energy consumption of Beijing from 2015 to 2020 is predicted by using the forecasting model. The results are as follows: under the standard scenario, the total energy consumption of Beijing can reach 82.56 million tons of standard coal by 2020. In the effective coordinated development, the total amount of 78.94 million tons of standard coal. Finally, according to the research results, the promotion strategy of Beijing's energy consumption is put forward under the background of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei coordinated development.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華北電力大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F206;F224
本文編號：2288519
[Abstract]:At present, the coordinated development of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei has become the top development strategy of the country, and the industry coordinated development is the important advance work of the coordinated development of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei. However, in the coordinated development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei industry, there are some problems, such as weak diffusion effect, overlapping industries, serious environmental pollution, low efficiency of comprehensive utilization of resources, etc. The contradiction between economic development and resource and environmental constraints has become the main contradiction that Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei industries are facing. As the core of the coordinated development of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei, Beijing has been plagued by urban diseases such as population growth, traffic congestion and air pollution in recent years. In order to solve the economic, resource and environmental problems, energy consumption management is the key. This paper studies the influencing factors of Beijing's energy consumption and forecasts its development trend. According to the research results, it puts forward the promotion strategy of Beijing's energy consumption management under the background of the coordinated development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, so as to solve the problem of "big city disease" in Beijing. The formulation of industrial transfer policy and the promotion of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei coordinated development have important practical significance. Based on the historical data from 1995 to 2014, this paper takes the energy consumption of Beijing under the coordinated development of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei as the research object, and analyzes the changes and the present situation of the energy consumption in Beijing. The main influencing factors of energy consumption in Beijing are studied and the development trend is forecasted accordingly. Firstly, on the basis of combing the current research situation at home and abroad, this paper analyzes and expounds the energy consumption and prediction theory. Secondly, based on the cooperative development strategy of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei, it expounds the function orientation of Beijing. Based on the analysis of the energy consumption and its influencing factors in Beijing, and the analysis of the changes and reasons of each variable year by year, this paper uses the LMDI decomposition model to analyze the energy consumption of the tertiary industry and the energy consumption from the perspective of daily energy consumption. The energy consumption in Beijing is divided into six aspects: population effect, economic level effect, industrial structure effect, production energy consumption intensity, resident consumption effect and living energy consumption intensity. Quantificationally measuring the contribution of various factors to energy consumption, we can get that the positive driving factors mainly include population effect, economic level effect, resident consumption effect, negative driving factors mainly include industrial structure effect, production energy consumption intensity, Energy consumption intensity. According to the results, the influence mechanism of various factors on energy consumption is analyzed, and the prediction model of energy consumption is constructed by using the least squares support vector machine (LS-SVM) algorithm optimized by cuckoo algorithm. Finally, based on the coordinated development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, and according to the historical situation of Beijing's development, the relevant planning policies define two different scenarios, the benchmark scenario and the effective coordinated development scenario. Different population, actual GDP, tertiary industry proportion, energy consumption intensity, resident consumption level and other parameters are set according to the different development level of different scenarios. Then the energy consumption of Beijing from 2015 to 2020 is predicted by using the forecasting model. The results are as follows: under the standard scenario, the total energy consumption of Beijing can reach 82.56 million tons of standard coal by 2020. In the effective coordinated development, the total amount of 78.94 million tons of standard coal. Finally, according to the research results, the promotion strategy of Beijing's energy consumption is put forward under the background of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei coordinated development.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華北電力大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F206;F224
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