【摘要】：基于我國2000~2015年的省際面板數(shù)據(jù),將31個省市按東、中、西三大區(qū)域劃分,建立個體固定效應(yīng)變系數(shù)模型分析了就業(yè)、城鎮(zhèn)化、城鄉(xiāng)收入差距等因素對我國人口增長的影響。結(jié)果表明:我國不同區(qū)域人口增長的影響因素存在較大差異,東部地區(qū)主要受城鎮(zhèn)化、在崗職工工資的影響;中西部地區(qū)主要受就業(yè)、城鎮(zhèn)化和在崗職工工資的影響;在總體上,就業(yè)和城鎮(zhèn)化對人口增長起促進作用,而城鄉(xiāng)收入差距對人口增長起阻礙作用,其影響程度依次遞減。由于人口增長的影響因素存在地區(qū)差異,為了減緩目前我國人口增長緩慢,人口老齡化速度加快,勞動力日漸短缺的狀況,國家和地方政府應(yīng)該根據(jù)不同的區(qū)域特征制定不同的人口政策,促進人口增長,最大限度地減緩人口老齡化可能給我國的經(jīng)濟發(fā)展帶來的負面影響。
[Abstract]:Based on the provincial panel data from 2000 to 2015 in China, 31 provinces and cities are divided into three regions: east, middle and west, and an individual fixed effect variable coefficient model is established to analyze the effects of employment, urbanization and income gap between urban and rural areas on the population growth in China. The results show that there are great differences in the influencing factors of population growth in different regions of China, the eastern region is mainly affected by urbanization and the wages of the employed workers, and the central and western regions are mainly affected by the employment, urbanization and the wages of the workers and staff on the job. On the whole, employment and urbanization promote population growth, while urban-rural income gap hinders population growth. Because there are regional differences in the influencing factors of population growth, in order to slow down the current population growth in China, the aging rate of the population is accelerating, and the labor force is becoming increasingly short. National and local governments should formulate different population policies according to different regional characteristics to promote population growth and to minimize the possible negative impact of population aging on China's economic development.
【作者單位】： 華僑大學(xué)經(jīng)濟與金融學(xué)院;湘潭大學(xué)數(shù)學(xué)與計算科學(xué)學(xué)院;
【基金】：國家自然科學(xué)基金面上項目“中國人口老齡化進程與勞動生產(chǎn)率:檢驗;預(yù)測與政策選擇”(715703154) 華僑大學(xué)研究生科研創(chuàng)新能力培養(yǎng)計劃項目“人口老齡化背景下養(yǎng)老產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展問題研究”
【分類號】：C924.2;F124.7;F249.2;F299.21

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