【摘要】：現(xiàn)代物流業(yè)作為一種融合了運輸、倉儲、貨代、信息等產(chǎn)業(yè)的復合型服務業(yè),已成為社會經(jīng)濟發(fā)展中的重要環(huán)節(jié),在吸納就業(yè)、促進生產(chǎn)、拉動消費等方面有著重要作用。作為一種基礎性、戰(zhàn)略性產(chǎn)業(yè),現(xiàn)代物流業(yè)的合理、健康發(fā)展,對產(chǎn)業(yè)結構調(diào)整、轉變經(jīng)濟發(fā)展方式等有著重要的促進作用,能夠促進經(jīng)濟的快速發(fā)展,增強經(jīng)濟發(fā)展實力。為了鼓勵物流業(yè)發(fā)展,各級政府相繼出臺了一系列政策和措施,并著手對區(qū)域物流布局進行優(yōu)化,促進物流的區(qū)域一體化發(fā)展。伴隨著電子商務、快遞業(yè)的迅速發(fā)展,互聯(lián)網(wǎng)消費市場也不斷繁榮,這些都促進了物流業(yè)的發(fā)展。與此同時,我國的社會物流總費用占GDP比重卻遠遠高于美、日等發(fā)達國家,也高于部分發(fā)展中國家,高額的物流成本嚴重制約了我國物流業(yè)的健康發(fā)展,造成相關行業(yè)運輸成本上升,同時也影響到經(jīng)濟的穩(wěn)步發(fā)展。當前,世界經(jīng)濟疲軟,我國經(jīng)濟發(fā)展也進入了新常態(tài),經(jīng)濟增速減緩,產(chǎn)能過剩,經(jīng)濟結構面臨優(yōu)化升級,創(chuàng)新驅動逐步超越要素、投資驅動成為主要發(fā)展動力。與此同時,我國適時提出了“一帶一路”戰(zhàn)略,確定了與沿線國家主要的合作重點,并對國內(nèi)主要區(qū)域和城市進行了戰(zhàn)略定位,使我國的社會經(jīng)濟發(fā)展得遇新的突破口和增長點,經(jīng)濟社會經(jīng)濟的發(fā)展離不開物流業(yè)的積極服務。因此,我國物流業(yè)將迎來巨大的發(fā)展機遇,各級政府對現(xiàn)代物流業(yè)的重視程度逐年提升,投入力度不斷加大。但對全國的物流水平、差異程度、空間布局等的發(fā)展狀況和演變過程缺乏詳盡的了解和認知,所以很有必要對我國的區(qū)域物流發(fā)展狀況進行合理研究。對于區(qū)域物流的科學評價,有利于認識和把握區(qū)域物流的發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀及規(guī)律,為物流業(yè)發(fā)展制定科學合理的區(qū)域布局優(yōu)化方案及有效的政策措施。鑒于此,本文以中國大陸31個省級行政區(qū)為研究對象,選取2000、2005、2010和2015年四個時間斷面來研究我國區(qū)域物流發(fā)展水平及時空演變規(guī)律。本研究的主體包括以下四個部分:首先,基于對國內(nèi)外有關區(qū)域物流的文獻梳理及相關理論研究,結合我國經(jīng)濟及物流發(fā)展基本情況,從經(jīng)濟實力、基礎設施、物流規(guī)模、產(chǎn)業(yè)政策、信息水平和物流人才六個方面,選取24個指標構建了我國區(qū)域物流發(fā)展水平的評價體系。其次,對我國區(qū)域物流發(fā)展的現(xiàn)狀進行研究,發(fā)現(xiàn)全國物流發(fā)展水平的區(qū)域差異特征明顯,具體表現(xiàn)在東部沿海省區(qū)物流發(fā)展水平高,中西部地區(qū)物流發(fā)展水平低下。東部省區(qū)在經(jīng)濟實力、基礎設施、物流規(guī)模、產(chǎn)業(yè)政策、信息水平和物流人才等方面均有較高的發(fā)展水平,發(fā)展較為均衡,而中西部省區(qū)在這些方面均缺乏優(yōu)勢,但發(fā)展?jié)摿^大。再次,對我國區(qū)域物流發(fā)展及時空演變進行研究,發(fā)現(xiàn)我國區(qū)域物流發(fā)展迅速,但區(qū)域間的物流發(fā)展速度差異明顯,且區(qū)域物流發(fā)展的總體差異呈減小趨勢。從2000-2015年,全國物流發(fā)展水平的平均值由2000年的0.0493上升到2015年的0.2646,16年間增長了5.38倍,物流發(fā)展迅速;區(qū)域物流發(fā)展水平的變異系數(shù)由2000年的0.7646逐步降至2015年的0.6902,總體差異呈減小趨勢,區(qū)域間物流發(fā)展水平呈均衡發(fā)展態(tài)勢;區(qū)域物流發(fā)展水平從高到低由沿海向內(nèi)陸依次遞減空間布局,其趨勢不斷加強,且表現(xiàn)出較強的集聚性,沿海省區(qū)與長江沿線省區(qū)形成了“T”字型的物流空間布局結構,且在此“T”字型軸線上產(chǎn)生了五個大的物流圈,即珠三角物流圈、長三角物流圈、環(huán)渤海物流圈、長江中游物流圈和成渝物流圈,沿海的區(qū)域物流逐步由“軸”發(fā)展成為更具活力的“帶”。但全國區(qū)域物流發(fā)展的全局空間自相關性不太明顯,全局Moran’s I指數(shù)從2000年的0.2115降至2015年的0.1641,區(qū)域物流發(fā)展的集聚性呈現(xiàn)減弱態(tài)勢。最后,運用障礙度模型,從經(jīng)濟實力、基礎設施、物流規(guī)模、產(chǎn)業(yè)政策、信息水平和物流人才方面分析了影響我國區(qū)域物流發(fā)展的障礙因素,發(fā)現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟實力、物流規(guī)模、基礎設施是主要的障礙因素,且其障礙度隨時間發(fā)展略有上升的趨勢。產(chǎn)業(yè)政策、信息水平、物流人才是次要障礙因素,其中信息水平、產(chǎn)業(yè)政策的障礙度略有下降。另外,進出口貿(mào)易總額、國民生產(chǎn)總值是經(jīng)濟發(fā)展因素中的主要障礙因子。港口貨物吞吐量、機場貨郵吞吐量是物流規(guī)模因素中主要的障礙因子。單位面積內(nèi)河航道里程、單位面積公路營運里程是基礎設施方面的主要障礙因子�；ヂ�(lián)網(wǎng)普及率是信息水平因素中主要的障礙因子。而產(chǎn)業(yè)政策、物流人才對區(qū)域物流發(fā)展的障礙相對較小,但仍起著不可忽視的關鍵性作用。
[Abstract]:Modern logistics industry, as a combination of transportation, warehousing, freight forwarding, information and other industries, has become an important link in the social and economic development. It plays an important role in absorbing employment, promoting production and stimulating consumption. As a basic, strategic industry, the rational and healthy development of modern logistics industry and the industrial knot. In order to encourage the development of the logistics industry, governments at all levels have introduced a series of policies and measures in order to encourage the development of the logistics industry. And we also begin to optimize the distribution of regional logistics and promote the regional integration of logistics. The rapid development of business, express industry and the continuous prosperity of the Internet consumption market have promoted the development of the logistics industry. At the same time, the proportion of the total cost of social logistics in our country is far higher than that of the United States, and the developed countries such as Japan are also higher than some developing countries. The high logistics cost seriously restricts the healthy development of the logistics industry in our country, and the high cost of logistics has seriously restricted the healthy development of the logistics industry in our country. At present, the world economy is weak, the economic development of our country has also entered the new normal, the economic growth is slowing down, the economic structure is overcapacity, the economic structure is facing the optimization and upgrading, the innovation driven step by step is the key factor and the investment drive has become the main driving force. Meanwhile, China is timely. The strategy of "one area and one road" is put forward, the main focal point of cooperation with the countries along the line is determined, and the strategic positioning of the major regions and cities in China is carried out so that the social and economic development of our country will meet the new breakthrough and growth point. The development of economic and social economy can not be separated from the active service of the logistics industry. Therefore, the logistics industry in our country will usher in a huge amount. With the opportunity of development, the government at all levels has paid more attention to the modern logistics industry, and the investment is increasing. However, there is no detailed understanding and cognition about the development and evolution of the national logistics level, the degree of difference and the spatial distribution, so it is necessary to make a reasonable Study on the development of regional logistics in China. The scientific evaluation of regional logistics is beneficial to understanding and grasping the current situation and law of regional logistics development, making a scientific and rational regional layout optimization scheme and effective policy measures for the development of the logistics industry. In view of this, this paper takes 31 provincial administrative regions in mainland China as the research object, and selects four time sections of 200020052010 and 2015 to study The main body of this study includes the following four parts: first, based on the literature of regional logistics at home and abroad and related theoretical research, combined with the basic situation of China's economic and logistics development, from economic strength, infrastructure, logistics scale, industrial policy, information level and logistics Six aspects of talent, select 24 indicators to build the evaluation system of the development level of regional logistics in China. Secondly, the current situation of regional logistics development in China is studied. It is found that the regional difference characteristics of the national logistics development level is obvious, which is manifested in the high level of logistics development in the eastern coastal provinces, and the low level of logistics development in the central and western regions. The eastern provinces have a high level of development in economic strength, infrastructure, logistics scale, industrial policy, information level and logistics talents. The development of the central and western provinces is more balanced, but the central and western provinces are lack of advantages in these areas, but the development potential is great. The regional logistics development is rapid, but the regional logistics development speed difference is obvious, and the overall difference of regional logistics development is decreasing. From 2000-2015 years, the average value of the national logistics development level increased from 0.0493 in 2000 to 2015 in 0.2646,16, and the flow of material flow developed rapidly; the variation of regional logistics development level From 0.7646 in 2000 to 0.6902 in 2015, the overall difference is decreasing, the level of regional logistics development shows a balanced development trend, and the development level of regional logistics is gradually decreasing from the high to low from the coastal to the inland, and the trend is constantly strengthened, and it shows a strong agglomeration. The coastal provinces and provinces along the Yangtze River are formed. The "T" type of logistics space layout structure, and on this "T" axis produced five large logistics circles, namely the Pearl River Delta logistics circle, the Yangtze River Delta logistics circle, the Bohai logistics circle, the logistics circle of the middle reaches of the Yangtze River and the Chengdu Chongqing logistics circle, the coastal regional logistics gradually developed into a more dynamic "belt" by the "axis". The global spatial autocorrelation of logistics development is not very obvious, the global Moran 's I index has dropped from 0.2115 in 2000 to 0.1641 in 2015, and the agglomeration of regional logistics development is weakened. Finally, the impact of the obstacle model is analyzed from the aspects of economic strength, infrastructure, logistics scale, production policy, information level and logistics personnel. The obstacle factors of the development of regional logistics in China have found that the economic strength, the logistics scale, the infrastructure are the main obstacle factors, and the obstacles are slightly rising with time. Industrial policy, information level, logistics personnel are secondary barriers, the level of information and the barriers of industrial policy have slightly decreased. In addition, import and export trade Total gross national product (GNP) is the main obstacle factor in economic development factors. Port cargo throughput, airport and postal throughput are the main obstacle factors in logistics scale factors. The mileage of river channel in unit area, road operating mileage per unit area is the main obstacle factor in infrastructure. The Internet popularity rate is the level of information. The main obstacle factor of the factors is the industrial policy. The logistics talents have relatively little obstacles to the development of regional logistics, but they still play a key role that can not be ignored.
【學位授予單位】：西南大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F259.27

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