本文選題：空間溢出效應(yīng) + 經(jīng)濟波動��； 參考：《統(tǒng)計研究》2017年05期

【摘要】：本文基于中國31個省市1979—2012年的數(shù)據(jù),采用動態(tài)空間杜賓模型,實證分析轉(zhuǎn)型期中國省際經(jīng)濟波動對經(jīng)濟增長的空間溢出效應(yīng)及其形成機制,得出結(jié)論如下:經(jīng)濟波動在淘汰本地區(qū)低效率投資項目和企業(yè)、優(yōu)化投資結(jié)構(gòu)、從而對本地區(qū)經(jīng)濟增長產(chǎn)生正向直接效應(yīng)的基礎(chǔ)上,因受中國地區(qū)間激烈競爭和產(chǎn)業(yè)同構(gòu)的影響,會吸引鄰近地區(qū)的優(yōu)質(zhì)資源,對這些地區(qū)的投資結(jié)構(gòu)產(chǎn)生不利影響,進而對經(jīng)濟增長產(chǎn)生負向空間溢出效應(yīng)。并且,從動態(tài)視角的檢驗發(fā)現(xiàn),相比于短期,兩種效應(yīng)在長期的作用更大。本文關(guān)于經(jīng)濟波動對經(jīng)濟增長空間溢出效應(yīng)的研究對于解釋中國經(jīng)濟波動與經(jīng)濟增長的關(guān)系機理,以及對于區(qū)域經(jīng)濟協(xié)同發(fā)展、加快國內(nèi)市場一體化相關(guān)政策的制定具有重要意義。
[Abstract]:Based on the data of 31 provinces and cities in China from 1979 to 2012, using the dynamic spatial Dobbin model, this paper empirically analyzes the spatial spillover effect of interprovincial economic fluctuation on economic growth and its formation mechanism in the transitional period of China. The conclusions are as follows: the economic fluctuation is based on the elimination of inefficient investment projects and enterprises in the region and the optimization of the investment structure, thus having a positive and direct effect on the regional economic growth. Due to the influence of fierce competition and industrial isomorphism among regions in China, it will attract high-quality resources from neighboring regions, adversely affect the investment structure of these regions, and then produce negative spatial spillover effects on economic growth. Furthermore, from the dynamic point of view, it is found that the two effects are more important in the long term than in the short term. This paper studies the spatial spillover effect of economic fluctuation on economic growth. It explains the mechanism of the relationship between economic fluctuation and economic growth in China, as well as the coordinated development of regional economy. It is of great significance to speed up the formulation of policies related to the integration of the domestic market.
【作者單位】： 教育部重點研究基地中國人民大學(xué)應(yīng)用統(tǒng)計科學(xué)研究中心;中國人民大學(xué)統(tǒng)計學(xué)院;
【基金】：國家社會科學(xué)基金重大項目“經(jīng)濟社會公共數(shù)據(jù)空間標(biāo)準(zhǔn)化與空間統(tǒng)計應(yīng)用研究”(11&ZD157),國家社會科學(xué)基金青年項目“基于分位數(shù)回歸的時空數(shù)據(jù)分析及應(yīng)用研究”(12CTJ008)資助
【分類號】：F127;F224

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本文編號：2047343