本文選題：城鎮(zhèn)化發(fā)展 + 空間杜賓模型�。� 參考：《經(jīng)濟(jì)與管理研究》2017年09期

【摘要】：本文采用空間杜賓模型針對(duì)2005—2015年中國(guó)31個(gè)省級(jí)區(qū)域的面板數(shù)據(jù),就城鎮(zhèn)化發(fā)展及其他影響因素對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的影響程度進(jìn)行測(cè)算,并將其對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的影響效應(yīng)進(jìn)行分解。研究結(jié)果表明,城鎮(zhèn)化率每提高1個(gè)百分點(diǎn),能夠促進(jìn)本地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)0.25%,但對(duì)相鄰地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的空間溢出效應(yīng)為負(fù),帶來(lái)相鄰地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)減少0.49%。"十三五"時(shí)期及中長(zhǎng)期亟須區(qū)域協(xié)同推進(jìn)新型城鎮(zhèn)化建設(shè),發(fā)揮新型城鎮(zhèn)化在新常態(tài)下拉動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的重要作用。
[Abstract]:Based on the panel data of 31 provincial regions in China from 2005 to 2015, this paper uses the spatial Doberbin model to measure the influence of urbanization and other influencing factors on economic growth, and to decompose the effect of urbanization on economic growth. The results show that if the urbanization rate increases by 1 percentage point, it can promote the local economic growth by 0.25%, but the spatial spillover effect on the economic growth of the adjacent regions is negative, resulting in a decrease of 0.49% in the adjacent regions' economy. " In the period of the 13th Five-Year Plan and in the medium and long term, it is urgent for the region to promote the construction of new urbanization and play an important role in stimulating economic growth under the new normal condition.
【作者單位】： 國(guó)家信息中心;中國(guó)人民大學(xué)環(huán)境學(xué)院;國(guó)家信息中心經(jīng)濟(jì)預(yù)測(cè)部;
【基金】：國(guó)家重點(diǎn)研發(fā)計(jì)劃項(xiàng)目“氣候變化經(jīng)濟(jì)影響綜合評(píng)估模式研究”(2016YFA0602601) 全國(guó)統(tǒng)計(jì)科學(xué)研究重點(diǎn)項(xiàng)目“新常態(tài)下我國(guó)潛在經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率測(cè)算及動(dòng)力轉(zhuǎn)換研究”(2016LZ24)
【分類號(hào)】：F124.1;F299.21

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