本文選題：房地產(chǎn) + 償債能力��； 參考：《浙江大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：房地產(chǎn)是一種同時(shí)具備消費(fèi)品與投資品屬性的商品,地產(chǎn)業(yè)如果投資過(guò)熱,房?jī)r(jià)不斷攀升容易產(chǎn)生經(jīng)濟(jì)泡沫,進(jìn)而引發(fā)經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)；如果投資蕭條,則不利于解決社會(huì)就業(yè),維持社會(huì)穩(wěn)定,帶動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展。正因?yàn)槿绱?我國(guó)要對(duì)房地產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展保持較高的關(guān)注度,充分運(yùn)用宏觀調(diào)控政策,以此推動(dòng)房地產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展。值得指出的是,我國(guó)房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)的運(yùn)作十分依賴于負(fù)債資金。統(tǒng)計(jì)2015年A股上市公司各個(gè)行業(yè)(按證監(jiān)會(huì)的行業(yè)分類)的資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表,發(fā)現(xiàn)房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)的資產(chǎn)負(fù)債率高達(dá)77%,僅低于建筑業(yè)與金融業(yè)；流動(dòng)資產(chǎn)占比86%,高居行業(yè)第一。本文最終選定極具典型意義的上市房地產(chǎn)公司為研究對(duì)象,這一類型的企業(yè)在行業(yè)內(nèi)處于領(lǐng)先位置,可將該行業(yè)的普遍性與基本特征全面地體現(xiàn)出來(lái),同時(shí)也能相當(dāng)精準(zhǔn)地呈現(xiàn)出廣泛地存在于行業(yè)內(nèi)部的問(wèn)題。本文從理論上闡述了企業(yè)償債能力的影響因素,并從多個(gè)方面研究了房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)獨(dú)有的財(cái)務(wù)特點(diǎn)和經(jīng)營(yíng)現(xiàn)狀。然后,采取實(shí)證手段確定上市房地產(chǎn)償債能力指標(biāo),依托此模型針對(duì)債務(wù)結(jié)構(gòu)給償債能力形成的影響進(jìn)行檢驗(yàn)。在剖析房地產(chǎn)的經(jīng)營(yíng)現(xiàn)狀時(shí),本文指出房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)的財(cái)務(wù)特點(diǎn),包括資金驅(qū)動(dòng)型、融資需求大,項(xiàng)目周轉(zhuǎn)長(zhǎng)導(dǎo)致利潤(rùn)表不同步、現(xiàn)金流波動(dòng)大、行業(yè)周期性強(qiáng)、盈利能力波動(dòng)大等。在實(shí)證分析過(guò)程中,本文在滬深兩地上市的120家房地產(chǎn)公司里,剔除財(cái)務(wù)數(shù)據(jù)異常和缺失的6家后,選擇其中的114家作為研究樣本。根據(jù)其2009-2015年的相關(guān)財(cái)務(wù)數(shù)據(jù),采取因子分析的策略在全方位地結(jié)合現(xiàn)金獲取能力指標(biāo)、盈利能力指標(biāo)、發(fā)展能力指標(biāo)、償債能力指標(biāo)等十三項(xiàng)指標(biāo)的基礎(chǔ)上,構(gòu)建出企業(yè)的償債能力綜合評(píng)價(jià)模型。隨后,利用定義的償債能力指數(shù)作為體現(xiàn)企業(yè)償債能力的因變量,將債務(wù)的來(lái)源結(jié)構(gòu)作為分析債務(wù)結(jié)構(gòu)的切入點(diǎn),并選擇銀行借款率、長(zhǎng)期負(fù)債率、商業(yè)信用率和短期負(fù)債率四個(gè)指標(biāo)作為自變量,最終找出債務(wù)來(lái)源的不同如何影響到企業(yè)的償債能力。研究結(jié)論表明,我國(guó)上市房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)平均償債能力指數(shù)表現(xiàn)為震蕩向下,行業(yè)整體處于長(zhǎng)期下行階段；房地產(chǎn)的償債能力周期和房地產(chǎn)調(diào)控周期并不同步,但與房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)的業(yè)績(jī)周期基本一致；房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)規(guī)模效應(yīng)的價(jià)值非常突出,在未來(lái)人口紅利消失、城鎮(zhèn)化走過(guò)高增長(zhǎng)的行業(yè)下行時(shí)代,龍頭和中小地產(chǎn)商在償債能力上的差別將越發(fā)得到體現(xiàn),行業(yè)可能面臨強(qiáng)者恒強(qiáng)的分化趨勢(shì)。在針對(duì)債務(wù)結(jié)構(gòu)給償債能力形成的影響的實(shí)證分析驗(yàn)證過(guò)程中,研究發(fā)現(xiàn),地產(chǎn)企業(yè)償債能力會(huì)受到長(zhǎng)期負(fù)債率帶來(lái)的嚴(yán)重影響,而商業(yè)信用率、短期負(fù)債率以及銀行借款率的回歸系數(shù)盡管為負(fù)數(shù),但是其影響并不明顯。其中短期負(fù)債率、商業(yè)信用率主要是因?yàn)橐越?jīng)營(yíng)性負(fù)債為主,不帶息、不增加公司的償債壓力；而銀行借款率可能是未考慮近年發(fā)展迅猛的企業(yè)債以及新型的債券類融資工具,值得進(jìn)一步挖掘。
[Abstract]:Real estate is a commodity with the properties of consumer goods and investment goods at the same time. If the investment is overheated in the land industry, the rising price of house prices will lead to economic bubble, which will lead to economic crisis. If the investment is depressed, it is not conducive to solving social employment, maintaining social stability and promoting economic development. In order to promote the development of real estate industry, it is worth pointing out that the operation of real estate enterprises in China depends on the debt fund. The balance sheet of the A shares of the listed companies in 2015 (according to the industry classification of the SFC) has been found to find the asset liability ratio of the real estate industry. Up to 77%, only below the construction industry and the financial industry; the mobile assets account for 86% and the industry first. This article finally chooses the most typical listed Real Estate Company as the research object. This type of enterprise is in the leading position in the industry, which can fully reflect the industry's universality and basic characteristics, and can also be quite precise. This paper presents the problems that exist widely in the industry. This paper expounds the influencing factors of the solvency of the enterprises in theory, and studies the unique financial characteristics and management status of the real estate enterprises from many aspects. Then, we take an empirical method to determine the index of the solvency of the listed real estate, and rely on this model to compensate for the debt structure. When analyzing the current situation of the real estate, this paper points out the financial characteristics of the real estate industry, including capital driven, large financing demand, unsynchronized profit statement, large cash flow fluctuation, strong cyclical industry, and great fluctuation in profitability. This paper is in Shanghai and Shenzhen in the empirical analysis process. In the 120 Real Estate Company listed on the two sides, 114 of them were selected as research samples after eliminating 6 financial data anomalies and missing families. According to their 2009-2015 year related financial data, the strategy of factor analysis was integrated with the index of cash acquisition capability, profitability index, development capability index, debt service index and so on. On the basis of the thirteen indicators, a comprehensive evaluation model of the solvency of the enterprise is built. Then, the definition of debt Solvency Index is used as the dependent variable to reflect the solvency of the enterprise, and the source structure of the debt is used as the breakthrough point to analyze the debt structure, and the bank loan rate, the long-term debt rate, the commercial credit rate and the short-term debt rate are four. The results show that the average debt Solvency Index of the listed real estate enterprises in China is oscillating downward and the industry is in a long-term downward stage; the debt repayment energy cycle of real estate is not synchronized with the real estate regulation cycle. The performance cycle of real estate enterprises is basically consistent; the value of the size effect of real estate enterprises is very prominent. In the future, the demographic dividend disappears, the urbanization has gone through the high growth period of the industry, the difference between the leading and the small and medium-sized real estate businessmen will be more and more manifested, the industry may face the tendency of the strong strong of the strong. In the process of empirical analysis, the study found that the solvency of the real estate companies will be seriously affected by the long-term debt rate, while the commercial credit rate, the short-term debt rate and the regression coefficient of the bank loan rate are negative, but the short-term debt rate, business letter, is not obvious. The rate of use is mainly due to operating liability, without interest, and no increase in the company's debt service pressure; and the bank borrowing rate may be a new debt financing tool that is not considered rapid in recent years and a new bond financing tool. It is worth further digging.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：浙江大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F299.233.42

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