發(fā)布時間：2018-04-16 18:23

  本文選題：貨幣政策 + 房地產(chǎn)市場　； 參考：《吉林財經(jīng)大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：我國從1998年開始進行住房貨幣化改革,之后房地產(chǎn)市場一片繁榮,無論房價水平還是投資水平都得到顯著提升。而房地產(chǎn)市場的快速發(fā)展也會帶來這樣那樣的問題,比如短期內(nèi)我國房價上漲過快,遠超國家經(jīng)濟預(yù)期,再如房地產(chǎn)的開發(fā)資金極度依賴于銀行信貸。在這種環(huán)境下,為使貨幣政策發(fā)揮出更加積極的調(diào)節(jié)作用,使房地產(chǎn)市場平穩(wěn)發(fā)展,中央銀行更有效地維護金融體系和宏觀經(jīng)濟,筆者認為探析我國貨幣政策是否具備有效調(diào)控房地產(chǎn)市場的經(jīng)濟能力,探討我國房地產(chǎn)市場發(fā)展會對貨幣政策的發(fā)展產(chǎn)生哪些影響,探究房地產(chǎn)市場與貨幣供應(yīng)量、商業(yè)銀行法定存款準(zhǔn)備金率、1年期貸款基準(zhǔn)利率以及房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)資金來源于國內(nèi)貸款的聯(lián)系,具有十分重要的現(xiàn)實意義。筆者根據(jù)我國2000年12月-2016年06月的有關(guān)數(shù)據(jù),科學(xué)有效地分析了我國房地產(chǎn)市場發(fā)展對貨幣政策的影響,其中實證分析靈活的運用了多種方法,分別是:在平穩(wěn)的時間序列中運用普通最小二乘法(高斯);對非平穩(wěn)時間序列的分析運用VAR模型(向量自回歸模型),并且對向量自回歸模型進行GRANGER檢驗;對后期的殘差存在自相關(guān)的回歸進行修正。正文從多種角度分析房地產(chǎn)市場發(fā)展的影響因素,發(fā)現(xiàn)貨幣政策所具有的時滯性;單獨某個貨幣政策工具難以實現(xiàn)對房價的調(diào)節(jié);貨幣政策的制定往往考慮的是經(jīng)濟的總體狀況以及公眾預(yù)期影響貨幣政策調(diào)控房地產(chǎn)的效果等因素是使得房地產(chǎn)市場發(fā)展到現(xiàn)在這種局面的主要原因。結(jié)合文章的實證分析,本文提出了關(guān)于完善我國貨幣政策的建議:第一,縮短貨幣政策的時滯時間;第二,保持貨幣政策的一致性、連續(xù)性和透明性;第三,加強貨幣政策與信貸政策的配合,綜合運用多種貨幣政策工具;第四,合理控制貨幣供應(yīng)量,嚴格控制房地產(chǎn)投機信貸規(guī)模;第五,加強中央銀行房地產(chǎn)市場金融市場的溝通;第六,改善政府保障的服務(wù)功能,提高保障房的服務(wù)功能。
[Abstract]:China started the housing reform in 1998, after a prosperous real estate market, regardless of the price level or the level of investment have been significantly improved. And the rapid development of the real estate market will also have such problems, such as the short term of China's housing prices rose too fast, far exceeding the national economic expectations, and real estate the development funds is extremely dependent on bank credit. In this environment, in order to make monetary policy play a more active role in regulating the smooth development of the real estate market, the central bank to maintain the financial system and macro economy more effectively, the author thinks that whether the analysis of monetary policy in China has the effective regulation of the real estate market economy ability. To explore the development of China's real estate market will affect the development of monetary policy, explore the real estate market and the money supply, commercial banks statutory deposit reserve ratio, a period of 1 years. The benchmark interest rate loans and real estate development funds from domestic loans, has very important practical significance. According to the relevant data of China from December 2000 -2016 years 06 months, scientific and effective analysis of the impact of China's real estate market development on monetary policy, the empirical analysis of the flexible use of a variety of methods, respectively. Is using ordinary least squares method in stationary time series in (Gauss); analysis of the use of VAR model of non-stationary time series (vector autoregressive model), and the GRANGER test vector autoregressive model test; residual on the later period the correlation regression analysis of influencing factors of the correction. The development of the real estate market from different angles, it is found that the delay of the monetary policy has; a single monetary policy tools to regulate the prices; monetary policy is often considered The overall situation of economic factors and the public expected impact of monetary policy on real estate is the result of the development of the real estate market to make the main reason for this situation now. Combining with the empirical analysis, this paper presents a perfect monetary policy recommendations: first, to shorten the time lag of monetary policy; second, maintaining the consistency of currency policy, continuity and transparency; third, strengthen the coordination of monetary policy and credit policy, comprehensive use of various monetary policy tools; fourth, the reasonable control of the money supply, strictly control the real estate speculation credit scale; fifth, the central bank to strengthen the financial market of the real estate market communication; sixth, to improve the service function of the government guarantee and enhance the service function of the low-income housing.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：吉林財經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F822.0;F299.23

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本文編號：1760075