本文選題：資產(chǎn)替代　切入點：空間面板　出處：《山西財經(jīng)大學》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：自2004年以來我國房地產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展迅速,商品住宅價格經(jīng)歷了一段時期的高速增長,從而引發(fā)了政府和學術(shù)界對房地產(chǎn)泡沫的廣泛討論。房價為何迅速增長,原因之一是快速城鎮(zhèn)化導致的剛需大量增長,原因之二是房價上漲滋生了住房投資需求,因為住房不僅是生活必需品,還是一種資產(chǎn),能夠保值增值。但是住房的投資需求到底在房價上漲過程中有多大貢獻,尚未有文獻進行測度,有的只是定性分析,有人認為投資需求尚不構(gòu)成房價上漲的主要原因,有人認為是主要原因之一。本文將實證測度住房投資需求對房價上漲的貢獻率,為政府掌握房價變動原因提供參考。要測度住房投資需求對房價上漲的貢獻,首先要測度住房投資需求,然后測度住房需求對房價的影響,最后才能得到投資需求對房價的影響。針對住房投資需求測度尚未有從宏觀視角進行研究的文獻,本文抓住住房投資是將住房視為資產(chǎn)的關(guān)鍵特征,將住房與其他資產(chǎn)的替代程度作為住房投資強弱的衡量指標,將住房在自身及其他資產(chǎn)收益率發(fā)生變化時的替代效應(yīng)作為住房投資需求的衡量指標,對住房投資進行測度。住房投資需求測度是在第二章完成,先建立包括存款、股票和住房三種資產(chǎn)的住戶部門資產(chǎn)需求系統(tǒng),然后根據(jù)資產(chǎn)需求系統(tǒng)估計結(jié)果測度住房投資需求。第三章通過構(gòu)建和估計住房價格影響因素模型,估計出住房需求對房價的影響系數(shù),并利用該影響系數(shù)和住房投資需求相結(jié)合,設(shè)計出住房投資需求對房價上漲貢獻的計算公式,測算出了住房投資需求對房價上漲的貢獻度。本章首先對住房價格的影響因素進行了理論分析�？紤]到房價具有空間聯(lián)動性,房價模型形式采用了空間面板模型。在模型構(gòu)建和估計時,解決了住房需求作為房價解釋變量的內(nèi)生性問題。本文的主要結(jié)論是:第一,我國商品住宅已經(jīng)表現(xiàn)出投資屬性。商品住宅與股票的替代彈性明顯大于其與存款的替代彈性,說明住戶部門認為商品住宅與股票更加接近,商品住宅具有投資屬性。第二,我國商品住宅投資需求對房價上漲的貢獻有時是正向的有時是負向的。房價上漲速度越快時,投資需求對房價上漲的貢獻就越大。在股票價格瘋狂增長的2006年和2007年,住房的投資需求為負,說明有部分住房投資資金流向股市,該階段住房投資需求對房價上漲的貢獻是負的。房價上漲速度較慢時,住房投資需求也是負的,說明有些住房投資資金已經(jīng)撤離,此時住房投資需求對房價上漲貢獻也是負的。第三,商品住宅價格水平在空間分布上具有一定的空間效應(yīng)特征。第四,除了空間因素以外,我國不同地區(qū)經(jīng)濟發(fā)展水平的不平衡,也會造成商品住宅價格的不同。最后,主要從稅收角度給出了政策建議。
[Abstract]:Since 2004, the real estate industry of our country has developed rapidly, and the price of commodity housing has experienced a period of rapid growth, which has caused the government and academic circles to discuss the real estate bubble widely. One of the reasons is that the rigid demand due to rapid urbanization has increased greatly, and the second reason is that rising house prices breed the demand for housing investment, because housing is not only a necessity, but also an asset. But how much contribution housing investment demand has made in the process of housing price rise has not yet been measured by literature, and some are only qualitative analysis. Some people think that investment demand has not yet constituted the main reason for the rise in house prices. Some people think it is one of the main reasons. This paper will measure the contribution rate of housing investment demand to the rise of house price, and provide a reference for the government to grasp the reasons for the change of house price. In order to measure the contribution of housing investment demand to the rise of house price, First of all, we should measure the housing investment demand, then measure the impact of housing demand on housing prices, finally, we can get the impact of investment demand on housing prices. In this paper, housing investment is regarded as a key characteristic of housing as an asset, and the degree of substitution of housing and other assets is regarded as a measure of housing investment. Taking the substitution effect of housing when the rate of return on itself and other assets changes as a measure of housing investment demand, this paper measures housing investment. The housing investment demand measurement is completed in the second chapter. Stock and housing three assets of the household sector asset demand system, and then according to the results of the asset demand system to measure housing investment demand. Chapter three through the construction and estimation of housing price impact factors model, The influence coefficient of housing demand on housing price is estimated, and the formula for calculating the contribution of housing investment demand to housing price increase is designed by combining this influence coefficient with housing investment demand. The paper calculates the contribution of housing investment demand to housing price increase. Firstly, this chapter analyzes the influence factors of housing price. The housing price model adopts the spatial panel model. When the model is constructed and estimated, the endogenous problem of housing demand as the explanatory variable of housing price is solved. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: first, The substitution elasticity of commodity residence and stock is obviously greater than that of deposit, which indicates that the household department thinks that commodity residence is closer to stock, and commodity residence has investment attribute. The contribution of China's commodity housing investment demand to the rise of house prices is sometimes positive and sometimes negative. The faster the housing price rises, the greater the contribution of investment demand to the rise of house prices. The negative demand for housing investment indicates that some housing investment funds flow to the stock market, and the contribution of housing investment demand to the housing price rise at this stage is negative. When the housing price rises slowly, the housing investment demand is also negative. It shows that some housing investment funds have been withdrawn, and the demand for housing investment has also contributed negatively to the rise of house prices. Third, the level of commodity housing prices has a certain spatial effect on the spatial distribution. Fourth, in addition to spatial factors, The imbalance of economic development level in different regions of China will also lead to the difference of commodity housing prices. Finally, some policy suggestions are given from the perspective of taxation.
【學位授予單位】：山西財經(jīng)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F299.23

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