本文選題：風險　切入點：城市軌道交通　出處：《北京交通大學》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：近年來,我國城市軌道交通發(fā)展迅速,未來建設(shè)需求強烈。城市軌道交通項目建設(shè)所需資金體量大、運營成本高等特點使得PPP模式逐漸成為傳統(tǒng)建設(shè)模式的重要補充。然而,城市軌道交通項目具有資金回收期長、資產(chǎn)專用性強等項目特點,PPP模式具有公私多方合作、合約期長且內(nèi)容復雜等模式特點,項目、模式特點引致的一系列風險可能對項目的順利實施產(chǎn)生嚴重威脅。因此,客觀、有效地對城市軌道交通PPP項目進行風險識別、評價顯得尤為重要。為客觀識別、評價城市軌道交通PPP項目風險,本文首先從項目、模式特點出發(fā),運用不完全契約、機會主義等理論解釋關(guān)鍵風險因素產(chǎn)生機理。其次,通過回顧關(guān)于城市軌道交通PPP項目風險評價的已有研究確定風險清單,設(shè)計了三個評價維度,具體包括風險發(fā)生概率、風險發(fā)生后果嚴重程度和已識別風險的不可控程度,并運用德爾菲問卷確定關(guān)鍵風險因素及風險分類,通過構(gòu)建云并對云進行縱向綜合與橫向綜合處理求取綜合了所有維度、所有風險因素的評價云。研究發(fā)現(xiàn),城市軌道交通PPP項目存在諸多風險與不確定性,且項目特點與項目風險存在密切聯(lián)系。其資產(chǎn)專用性特點可引致違約風險、長期復雜性合約可引致合同不完備風險、項目模式其他特點可引致其他風險。通過運用模糊綜合評價法對S市地鐵6號線進行風險評價實例研究,共識別出36種可能的項目風險因素、篩選出19種對項目有較大影響可能性的關(guān)鍵風險因素,并將19種關(guān)鍵風險因素劃分為"政府部門主導風險"、"項目公司主導風險"和"宏觀因素主導風險"三種風險類別。研究發(fā)現(xiàn),S市地鐵6號線項目風險發(fā)生概率大小介于"低"與"中等"之間,風險發(fā)生后果嚴重程度和已識別風險的不可控程度介于"中等"與"高"之間,且項目風險發(fā)生概率與風險發(fā)生后果的嚴重程度近乎"中等"水平,已識別風險的不可控程度水平偏高,項目整體風險水平介于"低"與"高"之間且偏于"中等"。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the rapid development of urban rail transit in China and the strong demand for future construction, the PPP model has gradually become an important supplement to the traditional construction mode because of the large amount of funds needed for the construction of urban rail transit projects and the high operating costs. Urban rail transit projects have the characteristics of long payback period, strong asset specificity and so on. PPP model has the characteristics of public-private cooperation, long contract period and complex content. A series of risks caused by pattern characteristics may pose a serious threat to the smooth implementation of the project. Therefore, objective and effective risk identification and evaluation of urban rail transit PPP project is particularly important. To evaluate the risk of urban rail transit (PPP) project, this paper first explains the mechanism of the key risk factors by using incomplete contract and opportunism from the characteristics of the project and the mode. By reviewing the existing research on the risk evaluation of urban rail transit PPP project and determining the risk list, three evaluation dimensions are designed, including the probability of risk occurrence, the severity of risk consequences and the uncontrollable degree of identified risk. And using Delphi questionnaire to determine the key risk factors and risk classification, through the construction of clouds and vertical and horizontal synthesis of the cloud to synthesize all dimensions, all risk factors evaluation cloud. There are many risks and uncertainties in urban rail transit PPP project, and the characteristics of the project are closely related to the project risk. The characteristics of asset specificity can lead to default risk, and long-term complex contract can lead to incomplete contract risk. Other characteristics of the project mode can lead to other risks. By using fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to study the risk evaluation of Metro Line 6 in S City, 36 possible project risk factors are identified. Select 19 key risk factors that have a greater impact on the project, 19 kinds of key risk factors are divided into three types: "government department leading risk", "project company leading risk" and "macro factor leading risk". Small between "low" and "medium", The degree of risk occurrence consequence and the uncontrollable degree of identified risk are between "medium" and "high", and the probability of occurrence of project risk and the severity of risk consequence are close to "medium" level. The uncontrollable level of the identified risk is on the high side, and the overall risk level of the project is between "low" and "high" and "moderate".
【學位授予單位】：北京交通大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F572.3;F283

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