發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-03-25 20:00

  本文選題：風(fēng)險(xiǎn)　切入點(diǎn)：城市軌道交通　出處：《北京交通大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：近年來,我國(guó)城市軌道交通發(fā)展迅速,未來建設(shè)需求強(qiáng)烈。城市軌道交通項(xiàng)目建設(shè)所需資金體量大、運(yùn)營(yíng)成本高等特點(diǎn)使得PPP模式逐漸成為傳統(tǒng)建設(shè)模式的重要補(bǔ)充。然而,城市軌道交通項(xiàng)目具有資金回收期長(zhǎng)、資產(chǎn)專用性強(qiáng)等項(xiàng)目特點(diǎn),PPP模式具有公私多方合作、合約期長(zhǎng)且內(nèi)容復(fù)雜等模式特點(diǎn),項(xiàng)目、模式特點(diǎn)引致的一系列風(fēng)險(xiǎn)可能對(duì)項(xiàng)目的順利實(shí)施產(chǎn)生嚴(yán)重威脅。因此,客觀、有效地對(duì)城市軌道交通PPP項(xiàng)目進(jìn)行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識(shí)別、評(píng)價(jià)顯得尤為重要。為客觀識(shí)別、評(píng)價(jià)城市軌道交通PPP項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn),本文首先從項(xiàng)目、模式特點(diǎn)出發(fā),運(yùn)用不完全契約、機(jī)會(huì)主義等理論解釋關(guān)鍵風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素產(chǎn)生機(jī)理。其次,通過回顧關(guān)于城市軌道交通PPP項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)的已有研究確定風(fēng)險(xiǎn)清單,設(shè)計(jì)了三個(gè)評(píng)價(jià)維度,具體包括風(fēng)險(xiǎn)發(fā)生概率、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)發(fā)生后果嚴(yán)重程度和已識(shí)別風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的不可控程度,并運(yùn)用德爾菲問卷確定關(guān)鍵風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素及風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分類,通過構(gòu)建云并對(duì)云進(jìn)行縱向綜合與橫向綜合處理求取綜合了所有維度、所有風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素的評(píng)價(jià)云。研究發(fā)現(xiàn),城市軌道交通PPP項(xiàng)目存在諸多風(fēng)險(xiǎn)與不確定性,且項(xiàng)目特點(diǎn)與項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)存在密切聯(lián)系。其資產(chǎn)專用性特點(diǎn)可引致違約風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、長(zhǎng)期復(fù)雜性合約可引致合同不完備風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、項(xiàng)目模式其他特點(diǎn)可引致其他風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。通過運(yùn)用模糊綜合評(píng)價(jià)法對(duì)S市地鐵6號(hào)線進(jìn)行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)實(shí)例研究,共識(shí)別出36種可能的項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素、篩選出19種對(duì)項(xiàng)目有較大影響可能性的關(guān)鍵風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素,并將19種關(guān)鍵風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素劃分為"政府部門主導(dǎo)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)"、"項(xiàng)目公司主導(dǎo)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)"和"宏觀因素主導(dǎo)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)"三種風(fēng)險(xiǎn)類別。研究發(fā)現(xiàn),S市地鐵6號(hào)線項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)發(fā)生概率大小介于"低"與"中等"之間,風(fēng)險(xiǎn)發(fā)生后果嚴(yán)重程度和已識(shí)別風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的不可控程度介于"中等"與"高"之間,且項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)發(fā)生概率與風(fēng)險(xiǎn)發(fā)生后果的嚴(yán)重程度近乎"中等"水平,已識(shí)別風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的不可控程度水平偏高,項(xiàng)目整體風(fēng)險(xiǎn)水平介于"低"與"高"之間且偏于"中等"。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the rapid development of urban rail transit in China and the strong demand for future construction, the PPP model has gradually become an important supplement to the traditional construction mode because of the large amount of funds needed for the construction of urban rail transit projects and the high operating costs. Urban rail transit projects have the characteristics of long payback period, strong asset specificity and so on. PPP model has the characteristics of public-private cooperation, long contract period and complex content. A series of risks caused by pattern characteristics may pose a serious threat to the smooth implementation of the project. Therefore, objective and effective risk identification and evaluation of urban rail transit PPP project is particularly important. To evaluate the risk of urban rail transit (PPP) project, this paper first explains the mechanism of the key risk factors by using incomplete contract and opportunism from the characteristics of the project and the mode. By reviewing the existing research on the risk evaluation of urban rail transit PPP project and determining the risk list, three evaluation dimensions are designed, including the probability of risk occurrence, the severity of risk consequences and the uncontrollable degree of identified risk. And using Delphi questionnaire to determine the key risk factors and risk classification, through the construction of clouds and vertical and horizontal synthesis of the cloud to synthesize all dimensions, all risk factors evaluation cloud. There are many risks and uncertainties in urban rail transit PPP project, and the characteristics of the project are closely related to the project risk. The characteristics of asset specificity can lead to default risk, and long-term complex contract can lead to incomplete contract risk. Other characteristics of the project mode can lead to other risks. By using fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to study the risk evaluation of Metro Line 6 in S City, 36 possible project risk factors are identified. Select 19 key risk factors that have a greater impact on the project, 19 kinds of key risk factors are divided into three types: "government department leading risk", "project company leading risk" and "macro factor leading risk". Small between "low" and "medium", The degree of risk occurrence consequence and the uncontrollable degree of identified risk are between "medium" and "high", and the probability of occurrence of project risk and the severity of risk consequence are close to "medium" level. The uncontrollable level of the identified risk is on the high side, and the overall risk level of the project is between "low" and "high" and "moderate".
【學(xué)位授予單位】：北京交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F572.3;F283

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 顧曼;陳紅梅;;城市軌道交通PPP項(xiàng)目公私雙方關(guān)鍵風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識(shí)別[J];四川建材;2016年06期

2 寧勇;趙世強(qiáng);;基于AHP的軌道交通PPP項(xiàng)目全生命周期風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識(shí)別[J];北京建筑大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào);2016年02期

3 沈光;;PPP項(xiàng)目中的政府違約風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析與防范[J];門窗;2016年04期

4 鄭勝?gòu)?qiáng);簡(jiǎn)迎輝;徐丹;;基于FANP的城市軌道交通PPP項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分擔(dān)研究[J];項(xiàng)目管理技術(shù);2016年03期

5 景雅琪;梁冬玲;;基于德爾菲法的黑龍江省灌區(qū)PPP模式建設(shè)項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析[J];中國(guó)市場(chǎng);2015年52期

6 李樹志;;淺析城市軌道交通的PPP融資模式[J];時(shí)代金融;2015年35期

7 李妍;趙蕾;;新型城鎮(zhèn)化背景下的PPP項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)體系的構(gòu)建——以上海莘莊CCHP項(xiàng)目為例[J];經(jīng)濟(jì)體制改革;2015年05期

8 劉曉凱;張明;;全球視角下的PPP:內(nèi)涵、模式、實(shí)踐與問題[J];國(guó)際經(jīng)濟(jì)評(píng)論;2015年04期

9 趙曄;;我國(guó)PPP項(xiàng)目失敗案例分析及風(fēng)險(xiǎn)防范[J];地方財(cái)政研究;2015年06期

10 申志峰;;基于熵權(quán)-層次的城市軌道交通項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)研究[J];價(jià)值工程;2015年10期

相關(guān)博士學(xué)位論文 前1條

1 楊宏力;本杰明·克萊因不完全契約理論述評(píng)[D];山東大學(xué);2012年

相關(guān)碩士學(xué)位論文 前5條

1 方R，

本文編號(hào)：1664631