發(fā)布時間：2018-03-25 19:54

  本文選題：人力資本　切入點(diǎn)：經(jīng)濟(jì)增長　出處：《青島大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：經(jīng)過改革開放四十年的高速發(fā)展,中國經(jīng)濟(jì)已經(jīng)進(jìn)入“新常態(tài)”時期,經(jīng)濟(jì)增速下降,后續(xù)發(fā)展勢頭不足。隨著“后發(fā)優(yōu)勢”與市場經(jīng)濟(jì)釋放的“制度紅利”、“人口紅利”的逐漸消退,當(dāng)前中國經(jīng)濟(jì)正面臨著產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)轉(zhuǎn)型困難、創(chuàng)新驅(qū)動能力不足以及供求結(jié)構(gòu)失衡等一系列增長瓶頸,經(jīng)濟(jì)持續(xù)發(fā)展后勁不足的矛盾突顯。為解決上述困境,擺脫“中等收入陷阱”約束,實(shí)施以人力資本帶動經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展方式轉(zhuǎn)變,充分釋放以人力資本帶動的“第二次人口紅利”,將是有效解決上述問題的主要路徑。文章首先對國內(nèi)外人力資本的研究脈絡(luò)及成果進(jìn)行了整理,從概念、核算、與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的關(guān)系等多個方面進(jìn)行具體闡述。其次,詳細(xì)介紹數(shù)據(jù)來源與變量選取,在借鑒已有研究成果的基礎(chǔ)上建立了綜合指標(biāo)體系。隨后,構(gòu)建中國各區(qū)域人力資本與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的多系統(tǒng)耦合模型,探析33年來(1982-2014)兩大類系統(tǒng)間的協(xié)調(diào)演化機(jī)制,并對三系統(tǒng)耦合躍遷機(jī)制進(jìn)行了再討論。然后,文章運(yùn)用半?yún)?shù)可加模型探究區(qū)域間人力資本作用于經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的非線性波動特征,分析了人力資本對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的線性、非線性及綜合影響效應(yīng)。最后,采用分位數(shù)回歸模型分析在特定分位點(diǎn)人力資本等投入量的變化對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長貢獻(xiàn)力的大小,由此明確各投入要素對區(qū)域發(fā)展差異的影響。在此基礎(chǔ)上,應(yīng)用面板平滑轉(zhuǎn)換回歸模型(PSTR),分析城鄉(xiāng)人力資本腦力素質(zhì)和身體素質(zhì)對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長影響的門檻特征與地區(qū)差異。研究結(jié)果表明,中國各區(qū)域人力資本與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長兩系統(tǒng)間的耦合值較低,由東至西逐級遞減,中西部仍處于失調(diào)衰退狀態(tài),尚未跨越至協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展階段,分析表明東部應(yīng)加快培育人力資本的技術(shù)吸收及創(chuàng)新能力,而中西部應(yīng)加強(qiáng)技術(shù)水平的引進(jìn)及消化能力。另外,半?yún)?shù)可加模型、分位數(shù)回歸模型及PSTR模型回歸結(jié)果表明我國人力資本腦力素質(zhì)與身體素質(zhì)對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的拉動效應(yīng)具有顯著的地區(qū)差異;處于條件分布低端的省份要重視人力資本投資,切實(shí)將積累的先進(jìn)人力資本轉(zhuǎn)化為生產(chǎn)力;處于條件分布高端的省份,經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展模式要向技術(shù)導(dǎo)向性產(chǎn)業(yè)傾斜,走可持續(xù)發(fā)展道路。
[Abstract]:After 40 years of rapid development of reform and opening up, China's economy has entered a period of "new normal", and the growth rate of the economy has declined. The momentum of subsequent development is insufficient. With the "late-development advantage" and the "institutional dividend" released by the market economy, and the gradual extinction of the "demographic dividend", the Chinese economy is now facing difficulties in the transformation of its industrial structure. A series of growth bottlenecks, such as insufficient innovation-driven capacity and unbalanced supply and demand structure, are highlighted in the contradiction of insufficient stamina for sustained economic development. In order to solve the above difficulties, we should get rid of the "middle-income trap" constraint. To implement the transformation of the mode of economic development driven by human capital, Fully releasing the "second demographic dividend" driven by human capital will be the main way to solve the above problems effectively. Secondly, the data source and variable selection are introduced in detail, and a comprehensive index system is established based on the existing research results. This paper constructs a multi-system coupling model of human capital and economic growth in different regions of China, analyzes the coordination and evolution mechanism between the two kinds of systems in the past 33 years, and discusses the three-system coupling transition mechanism again. In this paper, the semi-parametric additive model is used to study the nonlinear fluctuation characteristics of human capital acting on economic growth, and the linear, nonlinear and comprehensive effects of human capital on economic growth are analyzed. The quantile regression model is used to analyze the contribution of human capital input to economic growth at specific loci, and the influence of input factors on regional development is clarified. Using the panel smooth transformation regression model (PSTR), this paper analyzes the threshold characteristics and regional differences between urban and rural human capital brainpower and physical fitness on economic growth. The coupling value between the two systems of human capital and economic growth in various regions of China is relatively low, gradually decreasing from east to west, and the central and western regions are still in a state of maladjustment and recession and have not yet crossed the stage of coordinated development. The analysis shows that the eastern part should speed up the cultivation of the technological absorption and innovation ability of human capital, while the central and western regions should strengthen the ability of introducing and digesting the technology level. In addition, the semi-parametric additive model should be used. The results of quantile regression model and PSTR model show that there are significant regional differences in the pull effects of human capital mental quality and physical fitness on economic growth in China, and the provinces with low condition distribution should pay attention to human capital investment. The advanced human capital accumulated should be transformed into productive forces, and the economic development model of the provinces in the high end of conditional distribution should be inclined to the technology-oriented industry and take the road of sustainable development.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：青島大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F249.2;F124.1

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 逯進(jìn);常虹;汪運(yùn)波;;中國區(qū)域能源、經(jīng)濟(jì)與環(huán)境耦合的動態(tài)演化[J];中國人口·資源與環(huán)境;2017年02期

2 逯進(jìn);常虹;郭志儀;;中國省域能源、經(jīng)濟(jì)與環(huán)境耦合的演化機(jī)制研究[J];中國人口科學(xué);2016年03期

3 王圣元;陳萬明;周蔓;;異質(zhì)性人力資本對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長作用區(qū)域差異研究[J];工業(yè)技術(shù)經(jīng)濟(jì);2016年02期

4 封巖;柴志宏;;健康人力資本對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的影響[J];經(jīng)濟(jì)與管理研究;2016年02期

5 袁富華;張平;陸明濤;;長期經(jīng)濟(jì)增長過程中的人力資本結(jié)構(gòu)——兼論中國人力資本梯度升級問題[J];經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)動態(tài);2015年05期

6 姚洋;崔靜遠(yuǎn);;中國人力資本的測算研究[J];中國人口科學(xué);2015年01期

7 馬紅旗;王韌;;對人力資本形成理論的新認(rèn)識[J];經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家;2014年12期

8 李海崢;李波;裘越芳;郭大治;唐棠;;中國人力資本的度量:方法、結(jié)果及應(yīng)用[J];中央財經(jīng)大學(xué)學(xué)報;2014年05期

9 劉偉;張鵬飛;郭銳欣;;人力資本跨部門流動對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長和社會福利的影響[J];經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)(季刊);2014年02期

10 逯進(jìn);翟倩倩;周惠民;;人力資本、經(jīng)濟(jì)增長與空間溢出效應(yīng)——基于中國省域面板數(shù)據(jù)的實(shí)證分析[J];人口與發(fā)展;2014年02期

相關(guān)碩士學(xué)位論文 前1條

1 柯慧;廣義加性模型在醫(yī)療費(fèi)用控制的應(yīng)用[D];天津醫(yī)科大學(xué);2011年

，

本文編號：1664604