本文關(guān)鍵詞：我國(guó)人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)對(duì)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)價(jià)格變動(dòng)的影響研究　出處：《云南師范大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文　論文類(lèi)型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu) 房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng) “資產(chǎn)消融”假說(shuō)

【摘要】：房地產(chǎn)產(chǎn)業(yè)作為關(guān)乎我國(guó)國(guó)計(jì)民生的重要產(chǎn)業(yè),它不僅充當(dāng)著我國(guó)國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的重要支柱,而且是我國(guó)民生工程的重要組成部分。自二十世紀(jì)八十年代以來(lái),我國(guó)住房制度開(kāi)始進(jìn)行改革,我國(guó)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)呈現(xiàn)了迅速發(fā)展的趨勢(shì),特別是從1998年以后,各地房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)無(wú)論從銷(xiāo)量還是從價(jià)格上都呈現(xiàn)了迅速上漲的態(tài)勢(shì),但是也伴隨著劇烈的波動(dòng)。與此同時(shí)我國(guó)人口結(jié)構(gòu)也發(fā)生了較大的轉(zhuǎn)變,完成了由年輕型向老年型社會(huì)的過(guò)渡,隨著老齡化程度的不斷加深,少子化趨勢(shì)日趨嚴(yán)重,我國(guó)人口問(wèn)題逐漸凸顯,經(jīng)濟(jì)生活的各個(gè)方面都受到了影響。為了更好的厘清我國(guó)近年來(lái)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)上價(jià)格波動(dòng)與人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)轉(zhuǎn)變的關(guān)系,本文在已有研究的基礎(chǔ)之上使用理論模型與實(shí)證工具對(duì)該問(wèn)題進(jìn)行了深入的研究。首先本文回顧了我國(guó)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的發(fā)展歷程以及我國(guó)人口結(jié)構(gòu)的轉(zhuǎn)變歷程,定性地分析了我國(guó)人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)變化與房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)價(jià)格波動(dòng)的相互關(guān)系;其次選取2000~2015年間我國(guó)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)商品房平均銷(xiāo)售價(jià)格為被解釋變量,選取少兒撫養(yǎng)比和老年撫養(yǎng)比為解釋變量,同時(shí)加入相關(guān)控制變量,構(gòu)建面板模型進(jìn)行回歸分析,結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn):就全國(guó)范圍內(nèi),少年撫養(yǎng)比以及老年撫養(yǎng)比均與我國(guó)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)價(jià)格呈現(xiàn)反方向變動(dòng)關(guān)系,進(jìn)一步證明了“資產(chǎn)消融”假說(shuō)在我國(guó)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)上成立的事實(shí)。最后在本文研究結(jié)論的基礎(chǔ)上,對(duì)我國(guó)政府調(diào)控房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)價(jià)格波動(dòng),維持我國(guó)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)穩(wěn)健運(yùn)行提出了相關(guān)政策建議。
[Abstract]:The real estate industry as an important industry in our country is beneficial to the people's livelihood not only serves as, it is an important pillar of our national economy, and is an important part of the project of people's livelihood in China. Since 1980s, China's housing system reform began, China's real estate market presents the trend of rapid development, especially since 1998 after all, the real estate market in terms of sales or from the price showed a rapid rising trend, but also accompanied by dramatic fluctuations. At the same time, China's population structure has undergone great changes, completed the transition from young to old age society, along with the deepening of the aging, fewer children the trend is becoming more and more serious, the population of our country gradually appeared, all aspects of economic life are affected. In order to better clarify the Chinese real estate market prices in recent years The relationship between changes in volatility and the age structure of the population, the use of theoretical models and empirical tools based on the existing research carried out in-depth research on this problem. Firstly, this paper reviews the development history of China's real estate market and the transformation process of China's population structure, qualitative analyzed the relationship between the change and real age the structure of China's real estate market price fluctuation; secondly choose the average sales price of 2000~2015 years, China's real estate market commercial housing as the explanatory variable, select the dependency ratio of children and the elderly dependency ratio as explanatory variables, and adding control variables to construct the regression analysis, panel model results: all across the country, raising children ratio and the elderly dependency ratio were presented with China's real estate market price changes in the opposite direction, it is further proved that the "asset meltdown" hypothesis in China's real estate market Finally, based on the conclusions of this paper, we put forward relevant policy recommendations for our government to control the real estate market price fluctuations and maintain the robust operation of China's real estate market.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：云南師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：C924.2;F299.23

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