本文關(guān)鍵詞：調(diào)控政策下綠景控股現(xiàn)金流風(fēng)險管理研究　出處：《石河子大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 房地產(chǎn)企業(yè) 現(xiàn)金流 風(fēng)險管理 調(diào)控政策

【摘要】：房地產(chǎn)業(yè)是資金密集型行業(yè),項目開發(fā)需要大量資金投入,資金的投入與回收對項目開發(fā)意義重大。企業(yè)的現(xiàn)金流是企業(yè)正常經(jīng)營的基礎(chǔ),現(xiàn)金流風(fēng)險的控制影響著企業(yè)的發(fā)展。在中國轉(zhuǎn)型經(jīng)濟的特殊背景下,房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)的政策敏感性,使得房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)必須關(guān)心房地產(chǎn)調(diào)控政策,及時作出應(yīng)對決策。在經(jīng)濟環(huán)境較好時,一般采取抑制型的調(diào)控政策;經(jīng)濟環(huán)境過冷時,則采取激勵型的調(diào)控政策。因此,研究房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)發(fā)展過程中在調(diào)控政策下如何管理現(xiàn)金流和控制現(xiàn)金流風(fēng)險具有重要意義。本文嘗試從調(diào)控政策對房地產(chǎn)業(yè)影響的角度,探討企業(yè)如何在這些政策背景下加強現(xiàn)金流產(chǎn)生的風(fēng)險隱患并對其進行有效管理。本文首先從行業(yè)角度出發(fā),分析了房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)的情況,然后對調(diào)控政策進行梳理并根據(jù)特點分為兩個類別,然后對兩種政策下的房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)現(xiàn)金流的總體情況、現(xiàn)金流量結(jié)構(gòu)、償債能力進行對比分析,接著對房地產(chǎn)業(yè)的現(xiàn)金流風(fēng)險基本特征進行分析,運用了主成分分析法建立對風(fēng)險的預(yù)測模型。最后選取已經(jīng)上市24年的中小房企,卻有過六次更名歷史,并經(jīng)歷多次轉(zhuǎn)型失敗的綠景控股公司進行案例研究,并根據(jù)前文對行業(yè)兩種政策的分類,運用于綠景控股的現(xiàn)金流風(fēng)險分析中,文末則根據(jù)分析結(jié)果對現(xiàn)金流產(chǎn)生的隱患提出了四個建議。本文通過對房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)在兩種政策下的現(xiàn)金流管理,結(jié)合綠景控股案例進行分析,得出以下幾點結(jié)論:(1)調(diào)控政策的出臺并不會立即影響企業(yè)的現(xiàn)金流狀況;(2)不管是在激勵型政策的影響下還是抑制型政策影響下,房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)中籌資活動產(chǎn)生的現(xiàn)金正流入在總現(xiàn)金流入凈額中所占比例最大,經(jīng)營活動產(chǎn)生的流量凈額受政策影響較大,投資活動產(chǎn)生的現(xiàn)金流凈額一般產(chǎn)生負的效應(yīng)。綠景控股現(xiàn)金流現(xiàn)狀可以得出與行業(yè)特征有所不同:(1)在寬松的調(diào)控政策下,綠景控股現(xiàn)金流狀況并未得到明顯改善,而在抑制型政策影響下,對企業(yè)經(jīng)營狀況是雪上加霜,現(xiàn)金流風(fēng)險更大;(2)不管是在政策激勵階段還是抑制階段,總現(xiàn)金流入凈額主要依靠經(jīng)營活動產(chǎn)生的現(xiàn)金流凈額,而隨著行業(yè)集中度的提升,綠景控股的競爭不足,如果此時又處于緊縮的政策環(huán)境下,經(jīng)營現(xiàn)金流凈額就會出現(xiàn)較大的影響。針對上述問題,本文給出如下建議:(1)增加籌資渠道;(2)控制現(xiàn)金周轉(zhuǎn)期;(3)確定現(xiàn)金的最佳持有額度;(4)繼續(xù)尋找新的投資項目。
[Abstract]:Real estate industry is a capital-intensive industry, project development needs a lot of capital investment, the investment and recovery of funds is of great significance to project development. The cash flow of enterprises is the basis of the normal operation of enterprises. Cash flow risk control affects the development of enterprises. Under the special background of China's transition economy, the policy sensitivity of the real estate industry makes real estate enterprises must care about the real estate regulation policy. Timely decision making. When the economic environment is better, generally adopt the control policy of restraining type; When the economic environment is too cold, the policy of stimulating regulation and control should be adopted. It is important to study how to manage cash flow and control cash flow risk in the process of real estate enterprise development. This paper discusses how to strengthen the risk hidden danger of cash flow and manage it effectively under the background of these policies. Firstly, this paper analyzes the situation of real estate development from the angle of industry. Then the regulation and control policies are sorted out and divided into two categories according to the characteristics, and then the overall situation of cash flow, cash flow structure and solvency of the real estate industry under the two policies are compared and analyzed. Then the paper analyzes the basic characteristics of cash flow risk of real estate industry, and establishes the risk prediction model by principal component analysis. Finally, it selects the small and medium-sized housing enterprises which have been listed for 24 years, but has six renaming history. And after many failures of the transformation of the Green King holding company case study, and according to the previous classification of the two policies of the industry, used in the cash flow risk analysis of Green King holding. Finally, according to the results of the analysis of the hidden dangers of cash flow put forward four suggestions. Through the real estate industry under the two policies of cash flow management, combined with the green landscape holding case analysis. Draw the following conclusions: 1) the introduction of regulatory policies will not immediately affect the cash flow of enterprises; (2) under the influence of incentive policy or restraint policy, the cash inflow from financing activities in real estate enterprises is the largest in the total net cash inflow. Net flows from operating activities are strongly affected by policies. The net cash flow generated by investment activities generally has a negative effect. The cash flow situation of Greenview Holdings can be obtained to be different from the characteristics of the industry.) under the loose regulation and control policy. The cash flow status of Green King Holdings has not been significantly improved, but under the influence of restraining policies, the operating conditions of enterprises are aggravated, and the cash flow risk is greater; Whether in the policy incentive stage or the suppression stage, the net cash inflow mainly depends on the net cash flow generated by the business activities, and with the increase of industry concentration, the competition of Green King Holdings is insufficient. If we are in a tight policy environment at this time, the net operating cash flow will have a greater impact. In view of the above problems, this paper gives the following suggestions: 1) increase the financing channels; (2) controlling cash turnover; (III) determining the best level of cash holdings; Continue to look for new investment projects.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：石河子大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F299.233.42

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