【摘要】：我國地方政府債券于2009年由財政部代理發(fā)行,其中地方政府債務(wù)大幅增加、整頓地方政府融資平臺是發(fā)展地方政府債券的一個重要背景,也是面對國際金融危機(jī)、擴(kuò)大內(nèi)需、發(fā)展債券市場、分散銀行風(fēng)險的重要舉措。從發(fā)行背景來看,我國地方政府債券的發(fā)行帶有應(yīng)急和探索的雙重性質(zhì)。故此,要平衡地方政府債券的融資功能和風(fēng)險問題。毋庸置疑,地方政府債券的發(fā)行利弊相伴,但是從地方政府經(jīng)濟(jì)持續(xù)性發(fā)展來看,發(fā)展地方政府債券利大于弊,所以地方政府債券在實踐中所遇到的問題和暴露的風(fēng)險需要得到重視與解決。從地方政府債券產(chǎn)品設(shè)計、購買對象、使用渠道、發(fā)行規(guī)模、監(jiān)督管理、風(fēng)險預(yù)警與防范,地方政府債券從“代發(fā)”、“自行”發(fā)債最后到“自主”發(fā)債可謂任重而道遠(yuǎn),作為金融市場的融資工具,對于地方政府債券的投資、融資主體而言,信用風(fēng)險問題是地方政府債券面臨的最重要風(fēng)險。通過研究地方政府債券的信用風(fēng)險,分析信用風(fēng)險的來源和成因,對風(fēng)險預(yù)警防范,將對我國地方政府債券的持續(xù)健康發(fā)展具有重要意義。 本文以2009年以來,我國財政部代理發(fā)行的地方政府債券為研究對象,通過理論與實證相結(jié)合的研究方法對地方政府債券的信用風(fēng)險問題進(jìn)行研究。首先,在回顧了歷史上我國曾經(jīng)發(fā)行的地方政府債券的情況后,重點分析了2009年以來我國地方政府債券發(fā)行狀況、特點、存在問題。其次,從定性和定量兩個方面對地方政府債券面臨的信用風(fēng)險進(jìn)行分析,并進(jìn)一步探究信用風(fēng)險的來源及成因。從定性的角度看,地方政府債券的信用風(fēng)險是客觀存在的,并且結(jié)合我國實踐情況和經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境,地方政府債券的信用風(fēng)險主要有以下四個來源：使用效率和用途、經(jīng)濟(jì)政治運行環(huán)境、地方政府債務(wù)問題、統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)失實；從定量角度實證分析了地方政府債券的信用風(fēng)險,利用改進(jìn)后的KMV模型,以上海為例,分析地方政府債券的違約可能性和合理的發(fā)債規(guī)模。得出的結(jié)論是：第一,為了降低違約風(fēng)險,應(yīng)該合理控制地方政府債券的發(fā)行規(guī)模,通過發(fā)債規(guī)模占可擔(dān)保地方政府債券財政收入比重與違約距離之間的關(guān)系可知,這個比重越大,違約風(fēng)險的概率越大,越容易發(fā)生地方政府債券的違約風(fēng)險。第二,違約風(fēng)險與地方經(jīng)濟(jì)有密切的聯(lián)系。第三,控制地方政府債務(wù)成為預(yù)防地方政府債券信用風(fēng)險的關(guān)鍵因素。最后,基于以上信用風(fēng)險的研究,通過總結(jié)發(fā)達(dá)國家和發(fā)展中國家地方政府債券信用風(fēng)險防范經(jīng)驗,提出對我國地方政府債券信用風(fēng)險防范的有益啟示。最后,結(jié)合我國地方政府債券發(fā)行實踐,對我國地方政府債券存在的信用風(fēng)險問題提出合理的政策建議、防范對策。主要包括以下方面：規(guī)范完善地方政府債券產(chǎn)品的設(shè)計、建立完善的償債保障機(jī)制和風(fēng)險預(yù)警機(jī)制、構(gòu)建完善的地方政府債券監(jiān)管機(jī)制。
[Abstract]:China's local government bonds were issued by the Ministry of Finance in 2009. Among them, the local government debt increased substantially. Rectifying the local government financing platform is an important background for the development of local government bonds. It is also an important background for the development of local government bonds. Develop bond market, disperse the important measure of bank risk. From the perspective of issuing background, the issuance of local government bonds in China has the dual nature of emergency and exploration. Therefore, must balance the local government bond financing function and the risk question. There is no doubt that the advantages and disadvantages of issuing local government bonds go hand in hand, but from the point of view of the sustained economic development of local governments, the advantages of developing local government bonds outweigh the disadvantages. Therefore, the problems and exposed risks of local government bonds in practice need to be paid attention to and solved. From local government bond product design, purchase object, use channel, issue scale, supervision and management, risk warning and prevention, local government bond from "acting", "self" bond issuance to "independent" bond issuance is a long way to go. As a financing tool in the financial market, the credit risk is the most important risk faced by the local government bonds for the local government bond investment and financing subject. By studying the credit risk of local government bonds, analyzing the sources and causes of credit risk, and preventing the risk early warning, it will be of great significance for the sustainable and healthy development of local government bonds in China. In this paper, the local government bonds issued by the Ministry of Finance since 2009 as the research object, through the combination of theoretical and empirical research methods to study the credit risk of local government bonds. First of all, after reviewing the history of local government bonds issued in China, this paper focuses on the analysis of the status, characteristics and problems of local government bonds issued since 2009. Secondly, the paper analyzes the credit risk of local government bond from qualitative and quantitative aspects, and further explores the origin and cause of credit risk. From the qualitative point of view, the credit risk of local government bonds exists objectively, and the credit risk of local government bonds mainly has the following four sources: use efficiency and use, combined with the practice and economic environment of our country. This paper analyzes the credit risk of local government bonds from a quantitative point of view, using the improved KMV model, taking Shanghai as an example. Analyze the possibility of default of local government bonds and the reasonable scale of issuing bonds. The conclusions are as follows: first, in order to reduce the risk of default, we should reasonably control the issuing scale of local government bonds. The greater this proportion, the greater the probability of default risk, the more prone to default risk of local government bonds. Second, default risk and local economy have close relation. Third, controlling local government debt becomes the key factor to prevent the credit risk of local government bonds. Finally, based on the above study of credit risk, through summing up the experience of local government bond credit risk prevention in developed and developing countries, this paper puts forward some useful enlightenment to our local government bond credit risk prevention. Finally, based on the practice of issuing local government bonds in our country, the paper puts forward some reasonable policy suggestions and preventive measures to the credit risk problems of local government bonds in our country. It mainly includes the following aspects: standardizing and perfecting the design of local government bond products, establishing perfect debt service guarantee mechanism and risk warning mechanism, and constructing perfect local government bond supervision mechanism.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：東北財經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F812.5

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