【摘要】：我國(guó)在改革開(kāi)放后進(jìn)入了快速城市化的時(shí)期，對(duì)于城市基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施的投資不斷擴(kuò)大。我國(guó)自1994年起實(shí)行分稅制改革，將中央與地方的稅收劃分，減少了地方的財(cái)政收入。城市基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)龐大的資金需求與地方財(cái)政收入不足之間的矛盾，催生了地方政府尋求市場(chǎng)化融資的需求。而由地方政府成立的城投公司向市場(chǎng)發(fā)行的債券，就是城投債。而城投債所募集的資金一般運(yùn)用于與政府公共職能相關(guān)的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施行業(yè)。金融危機(jī)之后，我國(guó)出臺(tái)了四萬(wàn)億經(jīng)濟(jì)刺激政策，刺激了地方政府的城市建設(shè)支出，同時(shí)城投債迎來(lái)了一個(gè)爆發(fā)式增長(zhǎng)的時(shí)期。城投債的規(guī)模、范圍的不斷擴(kuò)大，其信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)也開(kāi)始逐漸顯現(xiàn)出來(lái)，引起了越來(lái)越多的投資人和公眾的關(guān)注。 本文首先確定論文的選題背景和研究意義，對(duì)現(xiàn)有的對(duì)城投債信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的研究進(jìn)行回顧和總結(jié)，整理論文的研究思路和框架，指出了論文的創(chuàng)新與不足。第二章中，將對(duì)城投債的產(chǎn)生背景和發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀進(jìn)行深入研究。從城市化和分稅制改革兩方面闡述城投債的產(chǎn)生背景，從三個(gè)階段分析城投債的發(fā)展歷程，從發(fā)行監(jiān)管、發(fā)行主體、地域分布、信用資質(zhì)和債券期限五方面剖析我國(guó)城投債的發(fā)展特點(diǎn)。在第三章中，將對(duì)信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)基本理論及度量模型進(jìn)行梳理�？偨Y(jié)現(xiàn)有的信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)理論，包括信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的含義和特征，，以及信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的來(lái)源。對(duì)信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)度量模型進(jìn)行分類(lèi)和總結(jié)。在概述四大現(xiàn)代商用信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)度量模型的基礎(chǔ)上，對(duì)本文使用的KMV模型進(jìn)行詳述。第四章中，將以天津市城投債為例進(jìn)行信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的實(shí)證研究。本文首先對(duì)KMV模型進(jìn)行改造，使其能夠運(yùn)用于城投債的信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)度量中。然后選取北方經(jīng)濟(jì)中心城市天津市的城投債進(jìn)行實(shí)證研究。在第五章，文章將探討城投債信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的控制對(duì)策。本章首先對(duì)國(guó)外的信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理方法進(jìn)行了分析，其中包括對(duì)美國(guó)市政債和日本地方公債的信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理。并結(jié)合我國(guó)城投債的發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀、信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)狀況等對(duì)我國(guó)城投債的發(fā)展提出政策性建議。
[Abstract]:China has entered a period of rapid urbanization after reform and opening up, and the investment in urban infrastructure is expanding. Since 1994, China has implemented the reform of the tax sharing system, dividing the central and local taxes and reducing the local fiscal revenue. The contradiction between the huge capital demand of urban infrastructure construction and the insufficiency of local fiscal revenue has given birth to the demand of local governments to seek market-oriented financing. And by the local government set up by the City Investment Corporation issued to the market bonds, is the City Investment debt. The capital raised by the city debt is generally used in the infrastructure industry related to the public functions of the government. After the financial crisis, our country issued 4 trillion economic stimulus policy, stimulated the local government's urban construction expenditure, and the city investment debt ushered in a period of explosive growth. With the expansion of the scale and scope of the city investment debt, its credit risk has gradually appeared, which has attracted more and more attention from investors and the public. This paper first determines the background and significance of the thesis, reviews and summarizes the existing research on the credit risk of city investment debt, collates the research ideas and framework, and points out the innovation and deficiency of the paper. In the second chapter, the background and present situation of city investment debt are studied. From the aspects of urbanization and tax distribution reform, this paper expounds the background of city investment debt, analyzes the development course of city investment debt from three stages, from issuing supervision, issuing main body, regional distribution. Credit qualification and bond maturity five aspects of China's city investment debt development characteristics. In the third chapter, the basic theory and measurement model of credit risk will be combed. Summarizes the existing credit risk theory, including the meaning and characteristics of credit risk, as well as the source of credit risk. The credit risk measurement model is classified and summarized. On the basis of summarizing four modern commercial credit risk measurement models, the KMV model used in this paper is described in detail. The fourth chapter will take Tianjin City Investment debt as an example to carry on the empirical study of credit risk. In this paper, the KMV model is first modified to be applied to the credit risk measurement of city debt. Then select the northern economic center of Tianjin City debt for empirical research. In the fifth chapter, the article will discuss the city investment debt credit risk control countermeasures. This chapter firstly analyzes the methods of credit risk management in foreign countries, including the credit risk management of American municipal debt and Japanese local public debt. Combined with the development of China's city investment debt, credit risk, and so on, put forward policy recommendations for the development of our country's city investment debt.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：上海交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F299.24;F812.5

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