【摘要】：中國(guó)轉(zhuǎn)軌進(jìn)程中伴隨著市場(chǎng)化和貨幣化進(jìn)程的推進(jìn),貨幣擴(kuò)張是如何影響金融增長(zhǎng)和資本品價(jià)格的?這是本文研究的核心問(wèn)題。 由于中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)軌的特殊性,貨幣擴(kuò)張具有不同于貨幣數(shù)量論意義上的經(jīng)濟(jì)后果,貨幣層面的變化也不僅僅是數(shù)量擴(kuò)張,還有結(jié)構(gòu)層面的變遷,這是同中國(guó)特有的金融體制相聯(lián)系的。隨著市場(chǎng)化的深入,貨幣化進(jìn)程的推進(jìn),個(gè)人可支配收入的增長(zhǎng)以及財(cái)富積累水平的增加,基于經(jīng)濟(jì)內(nèi)生因素的貨幣需求和投資需求也會(huì)發(fā)生數(shù)量和結(jié)構(gòu)上的變化,這樣就會(huì)出現(xiàn)貨幣化路徑和金融增長(zhǎng)路徑之間的微妙聯(lián)系。 轉(zhuǎn)軌經(jīng)濟(jì)的一個(gè)重要特點(diǎn),同時(shí)也是我們合理的假設(shè)前提是,政府牢牢控制著金融資源等要素,政府擁有左右金融發(fā)展變遷路徑的能力。在政府強(qiáng)大金融控制的情況下,貨幣擴(kuò)張對(duì)資本品價(jià)格的影響會(huì)產(chǎn)生不同于主流經(jīng)濟(jì)模型描述的情況。我們要說(shuō)明的正是：在政府外生金融控制力量非常強(qiáng)大的情況下,貨幣擴(kuò)張以及貨幣結(jié)構(gòu)的變遷是如何沖擊資本品價(jià)格的。這對(duì)于正確理解中國(guó)的特殊貨幣現(xiàn)象和制定正確的金融政策有著重要的意義。 本文的研究思路、主要內(nèi)容和結(jié)論如下：第一章,導(dǎo)言。介紹為什么要研究這個(gè)問(wèn)題即：是貨幣推動(dòng)了資產(chǎn)泡沫嗎?已有的文獻(xiàn)是如何來(lái)回答的,本文又是在這些研究的基礎(chǔ)上如何進(jìn)行研究、其研究的價(jià)值或創(chuàng)新之處。 第二章,中國(guó)的市場(chǎng)化轉(zhuǎn)軌與貨幣化進(jìn)程。本章較為詳細(xì)地梳理了市場(chǎng)化轉(zhuǎn)軌的內(nèi)涵和特征；分析了市場(chǎng)化改革下的內(nèi)生貨幣化進(jìn)程及機(jī)制以及貨幣替代物匱乏下的貨幣數(shù)量擴(kuò)張；闡釋了中國(guó)貨幣化進(jìn)程與資本品泡沫的產(chǎn)生。這包括資本市場(chǎng)貨幣化進(jìn)程中的貨幣與資產(chǎn)價(jià)格關(guān)系和資本市場(chǎng)貨幣化的完結(jié)與資產(chǎn)價(jià)格膨脹。 第三章,中國(guó)的貨幣化進(jìn)程、貨幣結(jié)構(gòu)變遷與金融增長(zhǎng)。中國(guó)的市場(chǎng)化改革帶來(lái)的不僅僅是貨幣數(shù)量的擴(kuò)張,還有貨幣結(jié)構(gòu)的變遷。隨著金融市場(chǎng)的發(fā)展和金融結(jié)構(gòu)的優(yōu)化,貨幣替代物越來(lái)越多,這對(duì)貨幣需求產(chǎn)生了重要的影響。在廣義的貨幣系統(tǒng)中,高能貨幣、存款貨幣等與貨幣替代物之間的關(guān)系也不一樣。貨幣與非貨幣金融資產(chǎn)之間既存在著互補(bǔ)關(guān)系,又存在著替代關(guān)系。擴(kuò)展到宏觀層面,貨幣擴(kuò)張與貨幣結(jié)構(gòu)的變遷也影響著金融增長(zhǎng)和金融深化。 第四章,轉(zhuǎn)軌進(jìn)程中的金融控制、貨幣擴(kuò)張與金融增長(zhǎng)。按照內(nèi)生金融演化理論,如果經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)所積累的資本存量達(dá)到一定程度,大量具有規(guī)模經(jīng)濟(jì)的生產(chǎn)技術(shù)開始出現(xiàn),貨幣等期限短、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)收益匹配單調(diào)的低級(jí)資產(chǎn)就不再滿足社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)中的內(nèi)生金融需求,此時(shí)對(duì)收益-風(fēng)險(xiǎn)特征具有更高要求的金融資產(chǎn)需求就會(huì)擴(kuò)大。這時(shí)候會(huì)存在一個(gè)潛在的內(nèi)生力量來(lái)拉動(dòng)金融市場(chǎng)發(fā)展。但是,在一個(gè)政府主導(dǎo)型的經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)中,政府合意的金融發(fā)展路徑不一定與社會(huì)福利最大化的金融發(fā)展路徑相一致,政府主導(dǎo)的金融市場(chǎng)發(fā)展往往鑲嵌在高額的貨幣存量之中。在這種情況下,轉(zhuǎn)軌經(jīng)濟(jì)就會(huì)出現(xiàn)有別于主流金融發(fā)展理論中所描述的金融增長(zhǎng)次序。本章就是按照轉(zhuǎn)軌路徑和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)路徑繼續(xù)前行,探索在轉(zhuǎn)軌經(jīng)濟(jì)強(qiáng)大的金融控制下政府是如何安排金融制度,貨幣數(shù)量擴(kuò)張是如何影響這一外生金融增長(zhǎng)路徑的,以及鑲嵌在高額貨幣存量中的資本市場(chǎng)的宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)后果。 第五章,貨幣數(shù)量、貨幣結(jié)構(gòu)與資本品價(jià)格：傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制。本章較為系統(tǒng)地分析了貨幣擴(kuò)張與資本品價(jià)格的作用機(jī)制和利率在貨幣與資本品價(jià)格傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制中的作用、貨幣擴(kuò)張的倒逼機(jī)制以及貨幣結(jié)構(gòu)的變遷與資本品價(jià)格并且從資產(chǎn)泡沫化的另一個(gè)途徑分析了土地財(cái)政、土地貨幣化與房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格。 第六章,中國(guó)貨幣擴(kuò)張與資本品價(jià)格的實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)：基于貨幣市場(chǎng)與資本市場(chǎng)的實(shí)證研究。本章主要是在VAR模型的基礎(chǔ)上考慮了貨幣結(jié)構(gòu)的流動(dòng)中現(xiàn)金、活期存款、定期存款對(duì)股票和房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格的影響,并且給出了他們之間基于Cholesky分解的脈沖響應(yīng)函數(shù)的動(dòng)態(tài)分析。結(jié)論為：不同的貨幣形式對(duì)股票和房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格的動(dòng)態(tài)影響是不一樣的。我們不能籠統(tǒng)地說(shuō)貨幣擴(kuò)張對(duì)股票和房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格的影響,而是應(yīng)該從貨幣的結(jié)構(gòu),即貨幣的不同的表現(xiàn)形式來(lái)看他們對(duì)股票和房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格的影響以及股票和房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格對(duì)貨幣不同表現(xiàn)的影響,從而能動(dòng)態(tài)的刻畫二者的變化機(jī)制,這對(duì)于我國(guó)政府如何更好地控制資產(chǎn)泡沫以及更好地促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)的良性發(fā)展是十分有益的。 第七章,貨幣擴(kuò)張與資產(chǎn)價(jià)格：貨幣政策含義。資產(chǎn)價(jià)格的波動(dòng)對(duì)一國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展產(chǎn)生重要影響,2008年全球性的金融危機(jī)給我們提供了深刻的教訓(xùn)。資產(chǎn)泡沫的破滅引起居民消費(fèi)需求的下降、相關(guān)產(chǎn)業(yè)的蕭條以及政府財(cái)政的減少,危及整個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)。貨幣擴(kuò)張與資產(chǎn)價(jià)格存在密切關(guān)系,貨幣政策應(yīng)該關(guān)注資產(chǎn)價(jià)格,防止資產(chǎn)價(jià)格劇烈波動(dòng)。 本文的價(jià)值所在,第一,對(duì)貨幣與資本品價(jià)格之間的關(guān)系進(jìn)行了一個(gè)綜合考察。如果說(shuō)在成熟的、金融深化程度較高的經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)中,貨幣與資本品之間存在著相互替代的Tobin效應(yīng)和具有收入互補(bǔ)性的財(cái)富效應(yīng),那么在中國(guó)轉(zhuǎn)軌進(jìn)程中的貨幣化動(dòng)態(tài)過(guò)程中,貨幣與資本品之間的關(guān)系則相對(duì)更加復(fù)雜,且具有動(dòng)態(tài)性,不同的路徑階段有不同的機(jī)理聯(lián)結(jié)；第二,結(jié)合中國(guó)轉(zhuǎn)軌經(jīng)濟(jì)實(shí)踐的特有貨幣金融的制度條件,建立一個(gè)動(dòng)態(tài)一般均衡模型,來(lái)分析貨幣化與金融深化之間的關(guān)系；第三,對(duì)中國(guó)的數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)。主要是從股票市場(chǎng)和房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的視角來(lái)分析資本市場(chǎng)和貨幣市場(chǎng)之間的關(guān)系,利用VAR模型的優(yōu)點(diǎn),動(dòng)態(tài)分析貨幣結(jié)構(gòu)對(duì)股票價(jià)格和房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格之間關(guān)系,從而為政府部門關(guān)于貨幣發(fā)行的決策給出有益的建議。第四,貨幣政策涵義。當(dāng)前占主流的通貨膨脹目標(biāo)制來(lái)看,資產(chǎn)價(jià)格并不在貨幣當(dāng)局的目標(biāo)集合內(nèi)。但是隨著金融市場(chǎng)的發(fā)展,金融創(chuàng)新工具的升級(jí),貨幣當(dāng)局的這一看法開始有所改變,尤其是剛剛發(fā)生的金融危機(jī)更加加深了貨幣當(dāng)局對(duì)資產(chǎn)價(jià)格的警醒和認(rèn)識(shí)。這是因?yàn)樨泿艛?shù)量、通貨膨脹與資產(chǎn)價(jià)格之間的關(guān)系變得越來(lái)越復(fù)雜,時(shí)間滯后性越來(lái)越難以捉摸。
[Abstract]:With the development of marketization and monetization in the process of China's transition, how does monetary expansion affect financial growth and capital prices? This is the core issue of this paper.
Because of the particularity of China's economic transition, monetary expansion has different economic consequences from monetary quantity theory. The change of monetary level is not only quantitative expansion, but also structural change, which is related to China's unique financial system. Increasing incomes and the level of wealth accumulation will result in quantitative and structural changes in money demand and investment demand based on economic endogenous factors, thus creating subtle links between monetization paths and financial growth paths.
An important feature of the transition economy and our reasonable assumption is that the government firmly controls the financial resources and other factors, and the government has the ability to influence the path of financial development and change. What we want to say is: how the monetary expansion and the change of monetary structure impact the price of capital goods under the strong external financial control of the government. It is of great significance to understand China's special monetary phenomenon correctly and formulate correct financial policies.
The main contents and conclusions of this paper are as follows: Chapter 1, Introduction. Introduce why we should study this question: Is money driving asset bubbles? How do the existing literature answer this question? This paper is based on these studies how to study, the value or innovation of the study.
Chapter 2, China's market-oriented transition and monetization process. This chapter combs the connotation and characteristics of market-oriented transition in detail; analyzes the process and mechanism of endogenous monetization under market-oriented reform and the expansion of money quantity under the lack of money substitutes; and explains the process of China's monetization and the emergence of capital product bubbles. It includes the relationship between money and asset price in the process of capital market monetization and the end of capital market monetization and asset price inflation.
In the third chapter, the process of China's monetization, the change of monetary structure and financial growth. China's market-oriented reform not only brings about the expansion of the amount of money, but also the change of monetary structure. In the monetary system, the relationship between high-energy money, deposit money and monetary substitutes is different. There are complementary and substitutive relationships between money and non-monetary financial assets.
According to the theory of endogenous financial evolution, if the capital stock accumulated by economic growth reaches a certain degree, a large number of production technologies with economies of scale begin to appear, such as money, etc. are short, the low-grade assets with monotonous risk-return matching can no longer meet the needs of social economy. There is a potential endogenous force to drive the development of financial markets. However, in a government-led economic system, the government's desirable path of financial development does not necessarily maximize social welfare. In this case, the transition economy will appear different from the financial growth order described in the mainstream financial development theory. This chapter is to continue to move forward in accordance with the transition path and economic growth path, and explore the transition economy. How does the government arrange the financial system under the strong financial control, how does the monetary expansion affect this exogenous financial growth path, and the macroeconomic consequences of the capital market embedded in the high monetary stock.
Chapter five, the quantity of money, the structure of money and the price of capital goods: transmission mechanism. This chapter systematically analyzes the mechanism of money expansion and the price of capital goods and the role of interest rate in the transmission mechanism of money and capital goods, the mechanism of currency expansion and the mechanism of currency expansion, the change of monetary structure and the price of capital goods, and from asset bubbles. Another way to solve the problem is land finance, land monetization and real estate prices.
Chapter 6, Empirical Test of China's Monetary Expansion and Capital Price: Empirical Research Based on Money Market and Capital Market. This chapter mainly considers the influence of cash, demand deposit and time deposit on the stock and real estate prices in the currency structure on the basis of VAR model, and gives the Chomsky score between them. The dynamic analysis of the impulse response function of the solution shows that different currency forms have different dynamic effects on stock and real estate prices. The influence of property price and the influence of stock and real estate prices on the different performance of money can dynamically depict the change mechanism of the two, which is very useful for our government how to better control the asset bubble and better promote the healthy development of the economy.
Chapter 7, Monetary Expansion and Asset Price: Implications of Monetary Policy. The fluctuation of asset prices has an important impact on a country's economic development. The 2008 global financial crisis has provided us with a profound lesson. There is a close relationship between monetary expansion and asset prices. Monetary policy should pay attention to asset prices to prevent sharp fluctuations in asset prices.
The value of this paper lies in, first, a comprehensive study of the relationship between money and the price of capital goods. If there is a Tobin effect of mutual substitution and a wealth effect of income complementarity between money and capital goods in a mature and highly financial deepening economic system, then the goods in the process of China's transition. In the dynamic process of monetization, the relationship between money and capital goods is relatively more complex and dynamic, and there are different mechanism links in different stages of the path; secondly, a dynamic general equilibrium model is established to analyze the relationship between monetization and financial deepening based on the peculiar monetary and financial system conditions of China's economic transition practice. Thirdly, the paper carries on the empirical test to the data of China. It mainly analyzes the relationship between the capital market and the money market from the perspective of the stock market and the real estate market. Fourth, the implication of monetary policy. Currently the dominant inflation targeting system shows that asset prices are not within the target set of monetary authorities. This is because the relationship between monetary quantity, inflation and asset prices has become more and more complex and the time lag has become increasingly elusive.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：山東大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號(hào)】：F822.0;F832.5;F224

【引證文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)博士學(xué)位論文 前1條

1 楊新松;中國(guó)貨幣政策的股票市場(chǎng)傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制研究[D];復(fù)旦大學(xué);2006年

，

本文編號(hào)：2198191