【摘要】：新疆自然災害多發(fā)的地區(qū)，特別是因為所處的地理位置，常年遭受各種自然災害的影響，給居民的生產(chǎn)生活帶來了巨大損失。新疆作為一個農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)大省，而農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)會又受到自然災害很大程度上的影響，，如何減少自然災害對新疆農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)造成的損失就成了影響新疆經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的重要問題。目前彌補損失的方法除了政府的救災資金，主要還是依靠新疆農(nóng)業(yè)保險。政府和保險業(yè)在發(fā)生重大自然災害時所面臨的壓力也隨著自然災害發(fā)生頻率和規(guī)模的增加而增加。由于自然災害的頻繁發(fā)生，各種農(nóng)業(yè)保險產(chǎn)品的賠付率也一直居高不下。并且近年來隨著市場化經(jīng)濟的逐步改革，保險業(yè)競爭壓力越來越大，政府給予各種政策上的幫助也在逐漸減少。因此如何解決這種資金短缺，農(nóng)業(yè)保險有效需求不能得到滿足的狀況是本研究的目的。 本文借鑒了美國的一種金融衍生工具——保險連接證券，也叫巨災風險證券化。它一方面可以借助資本市場分散保險市場的風險，從而有效提高了保險業(yè)抵御風險的能力；另一方面保險業(yè)憑借著這種金融工具可以從資本市場上獲得大量的資金，擴大了本身的承保容量。同時，也使政府能夠擺脫“最后保險人”的尷尬境地。保險連接證券主要包括巨災期權(quán)，巨災期貨，巨災互換和巨災債券等產(chǎn)品。而巨災債券比較其他的金融衍生工具而言有一定的優(yōu)點，并因此在巨災風險管理中被廣泛的應用。本文從此出發(fā)，為了增加新疆農(nóng)業(yè)保險的抗風險能力和承保容量，并結(jié)合新疆農(nóng)業(yè)保險的實際情況，將新疆農(nóng)業(yè)災害風險和巨災債券相結(jié)合，設計了并計算了目前新疆發(fā)行農(nóng)業(yè)災害風險債券適用的規(guī)模和價格。 首先，文章在介紹了保險連接證券的基本概念和原理的基礎(chǔ)上介紹了不同的證券化產(chǎn)品，尤其是它們當中的巨災債券的獨特的運作模式和屬性。其次對新疆的農(nóng)業(yè)災害風險與巨災債券相結(jié)合的可能行做出了分析，提出新疆發(fā)行農(nóng)業(yè)自然災害風險債券以解決新疆農(nóng)業(yè)保險面臨的種種困境，并對其運行機制做出了相關(guān)建議。最后，文章結(jié)合新疆近60年來發(fā)生的農(nóng)業(yè)自然災害數(shù)據(jù)，對其損失分布進行擬合，提出合適的農(nóng)業(yè)災害風險債券發(fā)行規(guī)模，以實際數(shù)據(jù)為基礎(chǔ)，根據(jù)資本資產(chǎn)定價模型計算新疆發(fā)行一年期不同類型的農(nóng)業(yè)災害風險債券的可行利率和價格。
[Abstract]:Xinjiang is a large province of agricultural production, and agricultural production will be affected to a great extent by natural disasters. How to reduce natural disasters on agriculture in Xinjiang The loss caused by production has become an important issue affecting the economic development of Xinjiang. At present, the way to make up for the loss is mainly depending on agricultural insurance in Xinjiang besides the government's relief fund. The pressure faced by the government and insurance industry in the event of major natural disasters increases with the frequency and scale of natural disasters. However, with the frequent occurrence of disasters, the compensation rate of various agricultural insurance products has been high. And in recent years, with the gradual reform of the market economy, the pressure of competition in the insurance industry has become greater and greater, and the government has given a variety of policies to help gradually reduce. Therefore, how to solve this shortage of funds, the effective demand for agricultural insurance can not be obtained. Satisfaction is the purpose of this study.
This paper draws lessons from an American financial derivative, insurance-linked securities, also known as catastrophe risk securitization. A large amount of money has expanded its underwriting capacity. At the same time, it has also enabled the government to get rid of the embarrassment of the "last insurer". Insurance-linked securities mainly include catastrophe options, catastrophe futures, catastrophe swaps and catastrophe bonds. Catastrophe bonds have certain advantages over other financial derivatives, and therefore in catastrophe. From this point of view, in order to increase the anti-risk ability and underwriting capacity of agricultural insurance in Xinjiang, and combining with the actual situation of agricultural insurance in Xinjiang, this paper designs and calculates the applicable scale and price of agricultural disaster risk bonds in Xinjiang.
Firstly, based on the introduction of the basic concepts and principles of insurance-linked securities, this paper introduces different securitization products, especially the unique operation mode and attributes of catastrophe bonds. Secondly, it analyzes the possibility of combining catastrophe bonds with agricultural disaster risk in Xinjiang, and proposes that Xinjiang issue agricultural self-financing. However, disaster risk bonds can solve the various difficulties faced by agricultural insurance in Xinjiang, and make relevant suggestions on its operation mechanism. Finally, the paper combines the data of agricultural natural disasters occurred in Xinjiang in the past 60 years, fits the loss distribution, and puts forward the appropriate issuance scale of agricultural disaster risk bonds, based on the actual data and according to the actual data. The capital asset pricing model calculates the feasible interest rate and price of one-year agricultural disaster risk bonds issued in Xinjiang.
【學位授予單位】：新疆財經(jīng)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：F832.51;F327;F224

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