【摘要】：隨著中國改革的深入,金融領(lǐng)域的開放日益增強,國內(nèi)外經(jīng)濟融合度迅速提高,金融分市場中的股票、外匯和貨幣市場通過不同渠道相互作用且相互影響。雖然通過方差比例對三個市場的刻畫已知股價、匯率和利率的發(fā)展趨勢各不相同,但是協(xié)整檢驗表明三者之間存在穩(wěn)定的長期均衡關(guān)系。所以,股票市場、外匯市場和貨幣市場之間的關(guān)聯(lián)應(yīng)該強化而不是相互孤立,改善三個市場之間的傳導(dǎo)渠道能夠提高政府對經(jīng)濟的調(diào)控效率。作為發(fā)展中國家,中國股票、外匯和貨幣三個金融分市場的發(fā)展還遠未達到發(fā)達國家水平,所以改革離不開政府的審慎監(jiān)管,需要基于宏觀經(jīng)濟狀況以及市場現(xiàn)實問題對三個市場進行監(jiān)控,從而避免金融領(lǐng)域的過度投機行為,規(guī)避金融系統(tǒng)風(fēng)險的積累。
[Abstract]:With the deepening of China's reform, the opening up of the financial field is increasing day by day, and the degree of domestic and foreign economic integration is increasing rapidly. The stock, foreign exchange and money markets in the financial sub-market interact and affect each other through different channels. The cointegration test shows that there is a stable long-term equilibrium relationship between the three markets, although the trends of exchange rate and interest rate are different from each other through the characterization of the three markets by the proportion of variance. Therefore, the relationship between the stock market, the foreign exchange market and the money market should be strengthened rather than isolated from each other. Improving the transmission channels between the three markets can improve the efficiency of the government's regulation and control of the economy. As a developing country, the development of the three financial sub-markets of China's stock, foreign exchange and currency is still far from the level of the developed countries, so the reform cannot be separated from the prudent supervision of the government. It is necessary to monitor the three markets on the basis of macroeconomic situation and market reality so as to avoid excessive speculation in the financial field and avoid the accumulation of risks in the financial system.
【作者單位】： 吉林大學(xué)商學(xué)院;
【基金】：國家社會科學(xué)基金項目(11BJY141) 吉林大學(xué)基本科研業(yè)務(wù)費項目(2014QY058)
【分類號】：F832.5

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