【摘要】：隨著中國(guó)改革的深入,金融領(lǐng)域的開(kāi)放日益增強(qiáng),國(guó)內(nèi)外經(jīng)濟(jì)融合度迅速提高,金融分市場(chǎng)中的股票、外匯和貨幣市場(chǎng)通過(guò)不同渠道相互作用且相互影響。雖然通過(guò)方差比例對(duì)三個(gè)市場(chǎng)的刻畫(huà)已知股價(jià)、匯率和利率的發(fā)展趨勢(shì)各不相同,但是協(xié)整檢驗(yàn)表明三者之間存在穩(wěn)定的長(zhǎng)期均衡關(guān)系。所以,股票市場(chǎng)、外匯市場(chǎng)和貨幣市場(chǎng)之間的關(guān)聯(lián)應(yīng)該強(qiáng)化而不是相互孤立,改善三個(gè)市場(chǎng)之間的傳導(dǎo)渠道能夠提高政府對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的調(diào)控效率。作為發(fā)展中國(guó)家,中國(guó)股票、外匯和貨幣三個(gè)金融分市場(chǎng)的發(fā)展還遠(yuǎn)未達(dá)到發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家水平,所以改革離不開(kāi)政府的審慎監(jiān)管,需要基于宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況以及市場(chǎng)現(xiàn)實(shí)問(wèn)題對(duì)三個(gè)市場(chǎng)進(jìn)行監(jiān)控,從而避免金融領(lǐng)域的過(guò)度投機(jī)行為,規(guī)避金融系統(tǒng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的積累。
[Abstract]:With the deepening of China's reform, the opening up of the financial field is increasing day by day, and the degree of domestic and foreign economic integration is increasing rapidly. The stock, foreign exchange and money markets in the financial sub-market interact and affect each other through different channels. The cointegration test shows that there is a stable long-term equilibrium relationship between the three markets, although the trends of exchange rate and interest rate are different from each other through the characterization of the three markets by the proportion of variance. Therefore, the relationship between the stock market, the foreign exchange market and the money market should be strengthened rather than isolated from each other. Improving the transmission channels between the three markets can improve the efficiency of the government's regulation and control of the economy. As a developing country, the development of the three financial sub-markets of China's stock, foreign exchange and currency is still far from the level of the developed countries, so the reform cannot be separated from the prudent supervision of the government. It is necessary to monitor the three markets on the basis of macroeconomic situation and market reality so as to avoid excessive speculation in the financial field and avoid the accumulation of risks in the financial system.
【作者單位】： 吉林大學(xué)商學(xué)院;
【基金】：國(guó)家社會(huì)科學(xué)基金項(xiàng)目(11BJY141) 吉林大學(xué)基本科研業(yè)務(wù)費(fèi)項(xiàng)目(2014QY058)
【分類號(hào)】：F832.5

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