本文選題：黃金價格 + 貨幣流動性　； 參考：《華東交通大學(xué)》2012年碩士論文

【摘要】：自2007年的次貸危機(jī)以來，全球經(jīng)濟(jì)就陷入了一場百年不遇的金融危機(jī)，在這場危機(jī)中，不論是金融市場還是實體經(jīng)濟(jì)都受到了嚴(yán)重的創(chuàng)傷。人們感受最深的是貨幣流動性收縮，資金運(yùn)轉(zhuǎn)困難。隨著危機(jī)的層層加深，全球的貨幣流動性急劇減弱，投資者出現(xiàn)了資金短缺，購買力下降的狀況，各類資產(chǎn)需求隨之減少，資產(chǎn)價格大幅度下跌。但是為了盡量減少在危機(jī)中的損失，人們紛紛將目光投向了具有保值避險功能的黃金。在金融市場一片蕭條的同時，黃金市場卻出現(xiàn)異常的火爆，黃金需求推動著黃金價格的一路上漲，然而就在投資者對黃金市場充滿了無限憧憬的時候，創(chuàng)出新高的黃金價格卻出現(xiàn)了拐點，一路持續(xù)震蕩下跌，，此刻的黃金失去了昨日的光輝，投資者變的手足無策。然而在美聯(lián)儲實施寬松貨幣政策之后，黃金市場又起死回生再次成為人們關(guān)注的熱點。貨幣流動性的大起大落與黃金價格的巨幅波動引起了全球金融界的熱議。 本文主要是在借鑒國內(nèi)外專家學(xué)者對于貨幣流動性對資產(chǎn)價格的影響分析以及黃金價格影響因素分析的基礎(chǔ)上，圍繞“貨幣流動性對黃金價格的影響”的論題，結(jié)合了近十幾年來黃金價格的走勢，闡述了貨幣流動性的內(nèi)涵及其度量方法，分析了影響黃金價格的長期、中期以及短期因素，采用了波動性指標(biāo)提取方法、協(xié)整方法、向量自回歸模型以及誤差修正模型等實證分析方法深入地研究了貨幣流動性和黃金價格之間的相關(guān)關(guān)系，通過方差分解進(jìn)一步分析了模型中各影響因素的貢獻(xiàn)率，最后使用GARCH模型預(yù)測黃金價格未來的走勢。 通過結(jié)合理論分析與實證分析，發(fā)現(xiàn)貨幣流動性是最重要的黃金價格短期影響因素，美元指數(shù)對黃金價格的影響也尤為重要。根據(jù)已有的信息預(yù)測了在接下來的兩個季度黃金價格的走勢，并為投資者在當(dāng)前的經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢下有效的使用黃金作為保值避險抗通貨膨脹的工具，控制投資風(fēng)險，更合理的投資黃金市場提供了具有針對性的建議。
[Abstract]:Since the subprime mortgage crisis in 2007, the global economy has been plunged into a financial crisis, in which both the financial markets and the real economy have been seriously traumatized. What is most felt is the contraction of monetary liquidity and the difficulty of running funds. With the deepening of the crisis, global monetary liquidity has weakened sharply, investors have faced a shortage of capital, reduced purchasing power, reduced demand for all types of assets, asset prices have fallen sharply. But in order to minimize the loss in the crisis, people have turned their eyes to gold with the function of hedging and avoiding risks. While the financial market is in a depression, the gold market is booming. Gold demand is driving the gold price up all the way, but at a time when investors are full of boundless hopes for the gold market, The gold price, which has reached a new high, has turned into an inflection point and has continued to fluctuate. The gold has lost its glory yesterday, and investors have become helpless. However, after the Federal Reserve's loose monetary policy, the gold market came back to life and became the focus of attention again. The volatility of monetary liquidity and the huge volatility of gold prices have aroused heated debate in the global financial world. Based on the analysis of the influence of monetary liquidity on asset price and the factors influencing gold price, this paper focuses on the topic of "the influence of Monetary liquidity on Gold Price". Combined with the trend of gold price in recent ten years, this paper expounds the connotation of monetary liquidity and its measurement method, analyzes the factors affecting gold price in the long, medium and short term, and adopts the method of extracting volatility index and cointegration. The empirical analysis methods such as vector autoregressive model and error correction model deeply study the correlation between monetary liquidity and gold price, and further analyze the contribution rate of various factors in the model through variance decomposition. Finally, GARCH model is used to predict the future trend of gold price. Through theoretical analysis and empirical analysis, it is found that monetary liquidity is the most important short-term influence factor of gold price, and the influence of dollar index on gold price is particularly important. According to the available information, it predicts the trend of gold prices in the next two quarters, and effectively uses gold as a hedge against inflation and controls investment risks for investors in the current economic situation. More rational investment in the gold market provides targeted advice.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華東交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：F224;F721;F831.54

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