本文選題：房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng) + 股票市場(chǎng)��； 參考：《南京財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2012年碩士論文

【摘要】：作為一國(guó)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況的重要表現(xiàn)，通貨膨脹一直都是社會(huì)各大主體關(guān)注的焦點(diǎn)。從我國(guó)的現(xiàn)行經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況來(lái)看，，通貨膨脹、房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)與股票市場(chǎng)均面臨著巨大的挑戰(zhàn)和機(jī)遇。因此，深入研究這三方的聯(lián)動(dòng)關(guān)系，找準(zhǔn)調(diào)控著力點(diǎn)，對(duì)于我國(guó)政府更為準(zhǔn)確定位財(cái)政政策和貨幣政策傾向，從而實(shí)現(xiàn)通貨膨脹、房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)與股票市場(chǎng)三者關(guān)系的最優(yōu)化，具有十分重要的理論和實(shí)際意義。 通過整理國(guó)內(nèi)外學(xué)者對(duì)于房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)、股票市場(chǎng)與通貨膨脹三者之間關(guān)系的研究發(fā)現(xiàn)，他們絕大多數(shù)側(cè)重于討論房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)、股票市場(chǎng)與通貨膨脹之間的兩兩對(duì)應(yīng)關(guān)系，卻很少注重對(duì)三者間整體互動(dòng)關(guān)系進(jìn)行系統(tǒng)地研究與分析。因此，本文在從房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)、股票市場(chǎng)與通貨膨脹三者之間的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)理論出發(fā)，在總結(jié)現(xiàn)有觀點(diǎn)與實(shí)證方法的基礎(chǔ)上，引入VAR模型，對(duì)這三個(gè)變量進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析和研究，找出三者之間的整體動(dòng)態(tài)關(guān)系。 本文主要分為理論、實(shí)證兩大部分，理論部分重在對(duì)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)、股票市場(chǎng)與通貨膨脹三者之間的關(guān)系進(jìn)行分析；實(shí)證部分則通過相關(guān)性分析、數(shù)據(jù)平穩(wěn)性檢驗(yàn)、協(xié)整檢驗(yàn)、格蘭杰因果檢驗(yàn)、脈沖響應(yīng)函數(shù)和方差分解的計(jì)量方法對(duì)中國(guó)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)、股票市場(chǎng)和通貨膨脹的聯(lián)動(dòng)關(guān)系進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析。本文實(shí)證結(jié)果顯示：房?jī)r(jià)上漲會(huì)刺激通貨膨脹，通貨膨脹會(huì)抑制房?jī)r(jià)的上漲；股價(jià)與通貨膨脹的相互作用方向是不確定的；房?jī)r(jià)對(duì)股價(jià)的作用方向不確定，股價(jià)上漲會(huì)刺激房?jī)r(jià)上漲。最后，在聯(lián)系理論與實(shí)際經(jīng)濟(jì)意義對(duì)研究結(jié)果進(jìn)行了分析和解釋的基礎(chǔ)上，本文提出了以下調(diào)控建議：引導(dǎo)投資房地產(chǎn)行為更趨理性化；適度調(diào)整房地產(chǎn)、股票兩市場(chǎng)更趨平衡化；穩(wěn)健控制股票市場(chǎng)使之更趨規(guī)范化；全面調(diào)控社會(huì)需求更趨合理化。
[Abstract]:As an important manifestation of the macro-economic situation of a country, inflation has always been the focus of all the major subjects of the society. From the current economic situation of our country, inflation, the real estate market and the stock market are faced with great challenges and opportunities. Therefore, the in-depth study of the linkage relationship between the three parties should be made to adjust and control the focus of our country. The government is more accurate in positioning financial policy and monetary policy, thus achieving inflation. The optimization of the relationship between the three parties in the real estate market and the stock market is of great theoretical and practical significance.
Through the study of the relations between the domestic and foreign scholars on the real estate market, the stock market and the inflation three, most of them focus on the discussion of the real estate market, the 22 corresponding relationship between the stock market and inflation, but rarely pay little attention to the systematic study and analysis of the overall interaction between the three. This paper, based on the economic theory between the real estate market, the stock market and the three inflation, introduces the VAR model on the basis of the existing and empirical methods, and carries out empirical analysis and Research on the three variables, and finds out the overall dynamic relationship between the three.
This article is mainly divided into two parts: the theoretical part, the theoretical part focuses on the analysis of the relationship between the real estate market, the stock market and the three inflation, and the empirical part is based on the correlation analysis, the data stability test, the cointegration test, the Grainger causality test, the pulse impulse response function and the variance decomposition measurement method. The empirical analysis of the linkage between the real estate market, the stock market and the inflation shows that the rising price of the house price will stimulate the inflation, the inflation will inhibit the rise of the house price; the direction of the interaction between the price and the inflation is uncertain; the direction of the price to the stock price is uncertain, and the rise of the price will stimulate the house. In the end, on the basis of the analysis and explanation of the relationship theory and the practical economic significance, this paper puts forward the following suggestions: guiding the behavior of investment real estate to be more rational; adjusting the real estate appropriately; the two market is more balanced; the steady control of the stock market makes it more standardized; comprehensive adjustment is made. Control social demand is more rationalized.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：南京財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號(hào)】：F832.51;F822.5;F293.3;F224

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