發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-03-13 20:00

  本文選題：管理者背景特征　切入點(diǎn)：信息披露　出處：《西南財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文　論文類(lèi)型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：隨著我國(guó)證券市場(chǎng)的逐步發(fā)展,由于信息不對(duì)稱所引發(fā)的各種問(wèn)題日益凸顯,投資者對(duì)上市公司相關(guān)信息的需求和要求也越來(lái)越高；同時(shí),由于“逆向選擇”的存在,為了避免“劣幣驅(qū)逐良幣”的情況產(chǎn)生,降低公司的資本成本,管理者會(huì)披露各種內(nèi)部信息,通過(guò)信號(hào)傳遞的方式來(lái)表明自身的經(jīng)營(yíng)和財(cái)務(wù)狀況,傳遞有關(guān)公司真實(shí)價(jià)值的信息,降低投資者對(duì)公司未來(lái)預(yù)期的不確定性,進(jìn)而有效地讓投資者正確地對(duì)公司作出評(píng)價(jià),將自身與其他公司進(jìn)行甄別,從而進(jìn)行正確的投資。信息披露作為投資者了解上市公司經(jīng)營(yíng)業(yè)績(jī)和財(cái)務(wù)狀況的基本途徑,是有效減輕信息不對(duì)稱的重要手段。而管理者盈余預(yù)測(cè)信息作為財(cái)務(wù)信息披露中非常重要的一種,不同于傳統(tǒng)會(huì)計(jì)信息反應(yīng)的是公司歷史財(cái)務(wù)信息,其傳遞了上市公司未來(lái)的盈利情況,增強(qiáng)了信啟、的決策有用性,是投資者進(jìn)行合理決策的重要依據(jù),在證券市場(chǎng)受到普遍重視,也受到了學(xué)術(shù)界的廣泛關(guān)注。但現(xiàn)有關(guān)于盈余預(yù)測(cè)研究的文章較少,已有研究主要集中在盈余預(yù)測(cè)披露行為的動(dòng)機(jī)、行為方式等,而鮮有研究關(guān)注盈余預(yù)測(cè)性質(zhì)(如預(yù)測(cè)的頻率、預(yù)測(cè)的精確度、預(yù)測(cè)導(dǎo)向以及預(yù)測(cè)偏差)這個(gè)重要的問(wèn)題,降低了盈余預(yù)測(cè)作為投資者決策依據(jù)的有效性。此外,眾多學(xué)者主要都從公司本身這個(gè)層面對(duì)盈余預(yù)測(cè)開(kāi)展研究,鮮有學(xué)者在探討盈余預(yù)測(cè)時(shí)考慮管理者個(gè)人特征因素,忽視了信息披露行為主體——上市公司管理者,其背景特征的異質(zhì)性所可能帶來(lái)的盈余預(yù)測(cè)信息差異,以及管理者特征對(duì)盈余預(yù)測(cè)性質(zhì)或者特征的具體影響,可以說(shuō)從管理者的個(gè)人背景特征來(lái)研究上市公司的盈余預(yù)測(cè)性質(zhì)尚屬空白領(lǐng)域。 特別是由于我國(guó)上市公司盈余預(yù)測(cè)機(jī)制的建立起步較晚,直至2007年中國(guó)證監(jiān)會(huì)正式頒布實(shí)施信息披露規(guī)范統(tǒng)領(lǐng)性文件《上市公司信息披露管理辦法》,我國(guó)的業(yè)績(jī)預(yù)告制度才日趨成熟。在我國(guó)特殊的業(yè)績(jī)預(yù)告制度背景下,由于強(qiáng)制性業(yè)績(jī)預(yù)告和非強(qiáng)制性業(yè)績(jī)預(yù)告的同時(shí)存在,有些應(yīng)該披露的公司沒(méi)有進(jìn)行披露,而有些非強(qiáng)制性公司卻自愿地披露了盈余預(yù)測(cè)信息,公司在做出盈余預(yù)測(cè)信息披露時(shí)靈活性較大,具有不同的披露特征。對(duì)于盈余預(yù)測(cè)的內(nèi)容和準(zhǔn)確性等條款上,管理者都相應(yīng)地進(jìn)行了選擇。管理層會(huì)適當(dāng)調(diào)整盈余預(yù)測(cè)的時(shí)間、準(zhǔn)確性和精確性。這些特征是分析盈余預(yù)測(cè)信息質(zhì)量的重要依據(jù)。因而如何從更為微觀的管理者個(gè)體層面和決策者層面研究我國(guó)上市公司盈余預(yù)測(cè)的性質(zhì),了解特定管理者的披露風(fēng)格,對(duì)于投資者更為客觀準(zhǔn)確地進(jìn)行決策以及提高資本市場(chǎng)的配置效率具有重要意義。 因此,本文試圖采用理論與實(shí)踐相結(jié)合、規(guī)范和實(shí)證相結(jié)合的兩種研究方法,通過(guò)閱讀文獻(xiàn)了解國(guó)內(nèi)外學(xué)者關(guān)于管理者背景特征、盈余預(yù)測(cè)性質(zhì)方面研究的現(xiàn)狀及局限；基于委托代理理論、信息不對(duì)稱理論、信號(hào)傳遞理論、高階管理理論等理論基礎(chǔ),通過(guò)邏輯演繹、歸納推理等方法,深入分析管理者背景特征對(duì)上市公司盈余預(yù)測(cè)性質(zhì)的影響機(jī)制和傳導(dǎo)路徑,為本文提出實(shí)證研究奠定堅(jiān)實(shí)的理論基礎(chǔ)和前提條件。然后闡述了我國(guó)業(yè)績(jī)預(yù)告制度的演變歷程和特點(diǎn)。接著主要從管理者的年齡、性別、學(xué)歷、教育背景以及工作經(jīng)歷五個(gè)方面提出假設(shè),運(yùn)用描述性統(tǒng)計(jì),相關(guān)性分析,多元有序變量模型(Ordered Logit Model)實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)我國(guó)管理者的人口背景特征對(duì)上市公司盈余預(yù)測(cè)性質(zhì)(預(yù)測(cè)的頻率、預(yù)測(cè)的精確度、預(yù)測(cè)導(dǎo)向以及預(yù)測(cè)偏差)的影響,得出本文結(jié)論。最后再回到規(guī)范研究上提出“該怎樣”的對(duì)策建議。 本文選取了滬深兩市發(fā)行A股的537家公司2008-2010年的數(shù)據(jù)作為研究樣本,從管理者的性別、年齡、學(xué)歷、教育背景以及工作經(jīng)歷五個(gè)方面,實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)了管理者背景特征對(duì)上市公司盈余預(yù)測(cè)性質(zhì)(預(yù)測(cè)的頻率、預(yù)測(cè)的精確度、預(yù)測(cè)導(dǎo)向以及預(yù)測(cè)偏差)的影響。研究結(jié)果表明：管理者背景特征與上市公司盈余預(yù)測(cè)性質(zhì)之間存在一定的相關(guān)性。具體而言,在影響上市公司盈余預(yù)測(cè)性質(zhì)的管理者背景特征中,(1)管理者性別主要會(huì)對(duì)盈余預(yù)測(cè)的精確度和預(yù)測(cè)偏差產(chǎn)生影響,女性管理者預(yù)測(cè)的精確度比男性管理者相對(duì)更高,預(yù)測(cè)的偏差更低。(2)管理者年齡特征的影響最為顯著,其與盈余預(yù)測(cè)的頻率、精確性、預(yù)測(cè)導(dǎo)向均存在顯著相關(guān)性,管理者年齡與預(yù)測(cè)頻率和預(yù)測(cè)導(dǎo)向是顯著負(fù)相關(guān),管理者年齡越大,更為“保守悲觀”,越不愿易進(jìn)行盈余預(yù)測(cè)信息披露,越傾向于向下的預(yù)測(cè)引導(dǎo)；而與盈余預(yù)測(cè)的精確性顯著正相關(guān),年齡越大的管理者越傾向于選擇更精確的點(diǎn)估計(jì)進(jìn)行信息披露。(3)管理者的財(cái)務(wù)會(huì)計(jì)教育專業(yè)背景對(duì)盈余預(yù)測(cè)頻率有一定影響,但是該影響并不顯著；然而接受過(guò)財(cái)務(wù)會(huì)計(jì)教育的管理者由于專業(yè)性和對(duì)數(shù)據(jù)的敏感性,其盈余預(yù)測(cè)的偏差更低。(4)有過(guò)財(cái)務(wù)會(huì)計(jì)工作經(jīng)歷的管理者披露的盈余預(yù)測(cè)信息偏差也更小。(5)管理者的學(xué)歷對(duì)盈余預(yù)測(cè)性質(zhì)沒(méi)有顯著影響。 本文的創(chuàng)新之處和研究貢獻(xiàn)主要表現(xiàn)在以下三個(gè)方面： 第一,本文創(chuàng)新性地從信息披露行為者的層面出發(fā),即上市公司管理者背景特征的角度,全面系統(tǒng)地探討了管理者的年齡、教育背景等個(gè)人特征變量與上市公司盈余預(yù)測(cè)信息性質(zhì)之間的關(guān)系,填補(bǔ)了信息披露主體特征與信息披露特點(diǎn)之間相關(guān)性研究的空白,拓展了現(xiàn)有關(guān)于上市公司管理者背景特征、信息披露理論的研究視角和研究深度,為后續(xù)研究提供了一個(gè)新的思路和值得探索的新方向。 第二,本文的實(shí)證研究發(fā)現(xiàn),管理者背景特征的異質(zhì)性確實(shí)會(huì)對(duì)上市公司的盈余預(yù)測(cè)性質(zhì)產(chǎn)生影響,形成不同的盈余預(yù)測(cè)信息披露風(fēng)格,進(jìn)而可以在一定程度上解釋我國(guó)證券市場(chǎng)中上市公司信息披露存在差異性的原因,揭示上市公司盈余預(yù)測(cè)性質(zhì)中的個(gè)人特征因素,有利于為我國(guó)監(jiān)管部門(mén)完善業(yè)績(jī)預(yù)告制度、加強(qiáng)制定投資者保護(hù)相關(guān)的政策提供依據(jù)和思路。 第三,通過(guò)對(duì)管理者背景特征與上市公司盈余預(yù)測(cè)性質(zhì)之間關(guān)系的研究,有助于投資者識(shí)別不同特征管理者的信息披露風(fēng)格,更為客觀科學(xué)地評(píng)價(jià)相應(yīng)管理者所選擇披露的信息,有利于降低投資者和公司管理者之間信息不對(duì)稱的程度,避免公司報(bào)表公布日股價(jià)的大幅波動(dòng),在一定程度上提高我國(guó)投資者分析決策的準(zhǔn)確性,進(jìn)而提高我國(guó)證券市場(chǎng)的投資效率和資本市場(chǎng)的配置效率。
[Abstract]:With the gradual development of China's securities market, due to various problems caused by information asymmetry has become increasingly prominent, the investor needs and requirements of the relevant information of listed companies is more and more high; at the same time, because of "adverse selection", in order to avoid the "bad money drives out good money" situation, reduce the cost of capital. Managers will disclose internal information, through a signal transmission way to show that their business and financial status, to transfer the real value of the company information, investors in the company reduce the uncertainty of future expectations, and effectively allow investors to correctly evaluate the company itself with other companies to identify, thus the correct the investment information disclosure as the basic way to understand investors business performance and financial situation of the listed companies is an important means to reduce the information asymmetry. Management earnings forecast information as a very important financial information disclosure of accounting information is different from the traditional reaction is the company of historical financial information, the transfer of listed company's future earnings, enhanced information, decision usefulness, is an important basis for investors to make reasonable decisions, pay attention to in the securities market also, received wide attention in academic circles. But the existing research on the earnings forecast of the article less, the research mainly concentrates in the earnings forecast disclosure behavior motivation, behavior, and little is known about the earnings forecast properties (such as prediction accuracy, prediction of frequency, orientation and prediction error) of this important problem that reduces the earnings forecast effectiveness as investors decision-making. In addition, many scholars mainly from the company itself in earnings forecast research, few studies Considering the management factors of personal characteristics on earnings forecast, ignored the information disclosure agents, managers of listed companies, the information may be caused by differences in earnings forecast heterogeneity of its background characteristics, and the specific effect of the management features and quality or characteristics on earnings forecast, it can be said that from the personal background characteristics of managers of earnings forecast property of listed companies is still a blank field.
Especially due to the earnings of Listed Companies in China to establish the prediction mechanism of a late start, until 2007 China Commission officially promulgated regulations on information disclosure and document "measures on the administration of information disclosure of Listed Companies in China, the performance forecast system is becoming more and more mature. In the background of China's special notice system of the performance, at the same time, due to the presence of mandatory performance notice and non mandatory performance forecast, the company should disclose some without disclosure, and some non mandatory companies have voluntarily disclosed earnings forecast information, the company in the information disclosure of earnings forecast disclosure flexibility, has different characteristics. For the content and accuracy of earnings forecasts and other terms, managers are accordingly for the choice. The management will adjust the earnings forecast time, accuracy and precision. These characteristics are analysis of earnings forecast information quality An important basis for the volume. So how to from more microcosmic management earnings of individual level and decision-making of Chinese listed company level and predict the nature, understanding specific disclosure management style for investors is more objective and accurate decision and has important significance in improving the capital market allocation efficiency.
Therefore, this paper attempts to use a combination of theory and practice, two kinds of normative and positive research methods, understand the domestic and foreign scholars on the managerial background characteristics through reading literature, the status and limitations of earnings forecast properties research; based on the principal-agent theory, asymmetric information theory, signal transmission theory, high order management theory the basis, through logical deduction, reasoning and other methods, in-depth analysis of influence mechanism and conduction path of nature of the managerial background characteristics of the listed companies' earnings forecast, to lay a solid theoretical foundation and prerequisite for empirical research in this paper. And then describes the evolution and characteristics of the system in our country. Then the main performance notice from managers age, gender, education, educational background and work experience five aspects put forward the hypothesis by using descriptive statistics, correlation analysis, multivariate ordinal variable model Type (Ordered Logit Model) empirical test of population background characteristics of Chinese managers of the listed company earnings forecast properties (prediction frequency, accuracy, prediction of orientation and prediction error) effect, the thesis draws a conclusion. The final suggestions back to normative research and put forward the "how to".
This paper selects 537 companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen two city issued A shares 2008-2010 years of data as the research sample, from the manager's gender, age, education, educational background and work experience five aspects, an empirical test of managers'background characteristics prediction of properties of the listed company's earnings forecast (frequency, accuracy, predictive guidance and the prediction error). The results show that the influence of management earnings background characteristics and prediction of listed companies there is a certain correlation between properties. Specifically, the influence of earnings forecast of managers'background characteristics in nature, (1) management sex will affect the earnings forecast accuracy and prediction error, female managers forecast accuracy were relatively higher, lower deviation prediction. (2) the impact of managerial characteristics of age is the most significant, and the prediction of surplus frequency, precision Indeed, there was a significant correlation between prediction guidance, management and prediction of age frequency and predictors of orientation is negatively related to the management of older, more conservative, more easily than pessimistic earnings forecast information disclosure, more inclined to downward prediction guidance; significant positive correlation and accuracy of prediction and surplus the older managers are more likely to choose a more accurate estimate of the information disclosure. (3) the background of professional accounting education managers have a certain influence on the earnings forecast frequency, but the effect is not significant; however, received financial accounting education managers because of speciality and sensitivity to data. The deviation of lower earnings forecast. (4) there have been financial accounting work experience management information disclosure of earnings forecast deviation is smaller. (5) degree of the managers on earnings forecast properties had no significant effect.
The innovation and research contribution of this paper are mainly shown in the following three aspects:
First, this paper creatively from the perspective of information disclosure behavior of listed companies management background characteristics perspective, systematically discusses the manager's age, relationship between earnings information nature of educational background, personal characteristic variables and prediction of listed companies, to fill the gaps in the study of the correlation between information disclosure and the characteristic of the subject of information disclosure, to expand the existing listed companies on the managerial background characteristics, information disclosure theory research perspective and research depth, provides a new idea and worth exploring new directions for future research.
Second, the empirical study found that the heterogeneity of managers'background characteristics does affect the listed company's earnings forecast, the formation of different styles of the earnings forecast information disclosure, and can to some extent explain China's stock market information disclosure of Listed Companies in the reason of the difference, reveal the listed company earnings prediction the characteristic factors in nature, is conducive to China's regulatory authorities to improve the performance forecast system, strengthen the protection of investors making relevant policy basis and ideas.
Third, through the study of the nature of the relationship between the earnings management background characteristics and prediction of listed companies, information disclosure style will help investors identify different characteristics of managers, more objective and scientific evaluation of the corresponding managers choose to disclose the information, the information asymmetry between investors and companies to reduce the management level, to avoid the company announced on stock price volatility statements, improve our investors to analyze the accuracy of decision-making in a certain extent, and improve the investment efficiency of China's securities market and the capital market allocation efficiency.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F275;F832.51

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 陳國(guó)輝;韓海文;;自愿性信息披露的價(jià)值效應(yīng)檢驗(yàn)[J];財(cái)經(jīng)問(wèn)題研究;2010年05期

2 喬旭東;上市公司年度報(bào)告自愿披露行為的實(shí)證研究[J];當(dāng)代經(jīng)濟(jì)科學(xué);2003年02期

3 姜付秀;伊志宏;蘇飛;黃磊;;管理者背景特征與企業(yè)過(guò)度投資行為[J];管理世界;2009年01期

4 張龍;劉洪;;高管團(tuán)隊(duì)中垂直對(duì)人口特征差異對(duì)高管離職的影響[J];管理世界;2009年04期

5 何威風(fēng);劉啟亮;;我國(guó)上市公司高管背景特征與財(cái)務(wù)重述行為研究[J];管理世界;2010年07期

6 范德玲;劉春林;殷楓;;上市公司自愿性信息披露的影響因素研究[J];經(jīng)濟(jì)管理;2004年20期

7 陳守明;李杰;;基于高層管理團(tuán)隊(duì)人口特征的實(shí)證研究綜述[J];經(jīng)濟(jì)論壇;2009年11期

8 史建梁;;董事會(huì)特征與自愿性信息披露的相關(guān)性研究[J];經(jīng)濟(jì)問(wèn)題;2010年05期

9 汪煒,蔣高峰;信息披露、透明度與資本成本[J];經(jīng)濟(jì)研究;2004年07期

10 孫俊華;賈良定;;高層管理團(tuán)隊(duì)與企業(yè)戰(zhàn)略關(guān)系研究述評(píng)[J];科技進(jìn)步與對(duì)策;2009年09期

，

本文編號(hào)：1607896