本文關(guān)鍵詞： 住宅財富效應(yīng) 消費 流動性約束 倒U型表現(xiàn)　出處：《寧波大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：住宅財富效應(yīng)是指住宅價格變化對居民消費支出的影響。本文針對當(dāng)前我國住宅價格快速上漲和內(nèi)需不振的現(xiàn)實狀況，在綜述現(xiàn)有國內(nèi)外關(guān)于住宅財富效應(yīng)研究文獻的基礎(chǔ)上，以資產(chǎn)價格波動引起的財富效應(yīng)角度梳理了消費理論的發(fā)展脈絡(luò)，依次從完善市場下的住宅財富效應(yīng)傳導(dǎo)渠道、非完善市場下的流動性約束效應(yīng)、住宅財富效應(yīng)倒U型表現(xiàn)三個層次闡述了住宅財富效應(yīng)的傳導(dǎo)機制，并利用我國1999-2010年期間31個省、市、自治區(qū)面板數(shù)據(jù)進行實證檢驗。 本文得到以下四點結(jié)論：第一，住宅價格上漲對有房者的促進消費作用和對無房者的抑制作用是不可抵消的，實證結(jié)果表明我國住宅價格上漲對消費支出具有顯著的促進作用，住宅價格上漲1個單位能帶來0.0283的消費增量。我國居民住宅自有率較高，因此，“創(chuàng)造條件讓更多群眾擁有財產(chǎn)性收入”是一項非常正確的拉動內(nèi)需的長期性政策。第二，，外部金融市場不發(fā)達是造成外部流動性約束的重要原因。眾所周知，金融市場越發(fā)達，外部流動性約束越小。實證結(jié)果表明，我國外部流動性約束越小的區(qū)域，住宅財富效應(yīng)越大，也就是說住宅財富效應(yīng)存在外部流動性約束。第三、家庭內(nèi)部流動性資產(chǎn)配置將影響到內(nèi)部流動性約束。傳統(tǒng)觀點認(rèn)為當(dāng)家庭內(nèi)部擁有足夠的流動性資產(chǎn)時才有能力增加當(dāng)前消費支出，而行為生命周期理論的觀點是當(dāng)家庭流動性資產(chǎn)不足時，住宅財富效應(yīng)反而更大。實證結(jié)果表明我國儲蓄水平越低即內(nèi)部流動性約束越大的區(qū)域，住宅財富效應(yīng)越大，因此符合行為生命周期視角下的內(nèi)部流動性約束。第四，我國住宅財富效應(yīng)符合倒U型表現(xiàn)。實證結(jié)果表明，住宅價格上漲對消費的影響存在一個從促進到抑制的過程，房價非理性上漲亦會損傷內(nèi)需增長。 最后文章以發(fā)揮我國住宅財富效應(yīng)為目標(biāo)，提出了發(fā)展住房金融市場、拓寬居民投資渠道、健全社會保障體系、建立謹(jǐn)防房價過高的住宅宏觀調(diào)控機制的政策建議。
[Abstract]:Housing wealth effect refers to the impact of residential price changes on consumer expenditure. This paper aims at the current situation of rapid rise in housing prices and sluggish domestic demand in China. On the basis of summarizing the domestic and foreign research literature on housing wealth effect, this paper combs the development of consumption theory from the perspective of wealth effect caused by asset price fluctuation. In turn, the transmission mechanism of housing wealth effect is expounded from three levels: consummating the transmission channel of housing wealth effect under the market, the liquidity constraint effect under the imperfect market, and the reverse U-shaped performance of the housing wealth effect. Using the panel data of 31 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions from 1999 to 2010 in China. This paper draws the following four conclusions: first, the housing price rise on the promotion of housing consumption and the inhibition of the non-housing can not be offset. The empirical results show that China's housing price rise has a significant role in promoting consumer expenditure, one unit of housing price increase can bring 0.0283 consumption increment. "creating conditions for more people to own property income" is a very correct long-term policy to boost domestic demand. Second, the underdevelopment of external financial markets is an important cause of external liquidity constraints. The more developed the financial market, the smaller the external liquidity constraint. The empirical results show that the smaller the external liquidity constraints, the greater the housing wealth effect. That is to say, there are external liquidity constraints in the housing wealth effect. Third. The traditional view is that when the household has enough liquid assets, it is able to increase the current consumer spending. The behavioral life cycle theory holds that when the household liquidity assets are insufficient, the housing wealth effect is greater. The empirical results show that the lower the level of savings in China, the greater the internal liquidity constraints. The greater the housing wealth effect, the more consistent with the behavior life cycle perspective of internal liquidity constraints. 4th, China's housing wealth effect conforms to inverted U performance. The empirical results show that. The impact of housing price rise on consumption has a process from promotion to suppression, and irrational rise in house prices will also damage domestic demand growth. Finally, aiming at exerting the effect of our country's housing wealth, this paper proposes to develop the housing financial market, widen the investment channels of residents, and perfect the social security system. Set up guard against the housing macro-control mechanism of housing prices too high policy recommendations.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：寧波大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F299.23;F832.5

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