本文關鍵詞：基于MARKAL-MACRO模型的中國碳交易市場交易與定價基礎研究　出處：《東北財經(jīng)大學》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

  更多相關文章： CO_2排放量 碳配額 MARKAL-MACRO耦合模型 碳交易市場

【摘要】：2008年之后,中國超過美國,成為世界上CO2排放量最多的國家,作為《京都議定書》下非附件Ⅰ國家,利用市場手段促進我國減排已經(jīng)成為國際上不可逆轉的方向,構建我國碳交易市場既是當前國家政策法規(guī)的要求,也是與國際碳交易市場接軌的必經(jīng)之路。 綜合國家政策、不同地區(qū)工業(yè)產(chǎn)值比重、能源消費結構及區(qū)域CO2歷史排放量等因素,我國碳交易市場應按照先區(qū)域,后全國的順序,2011年11月,率先在北京、天津、上海、重慶、湖北、廣東及深圳7省市建立碳排放權交易試點。2013年6月18日,深圳市排放權交易試點已經(jīng)啟動使用,預計2013年年底其余6省市的交易試點工作將全面啟動。2013年10月24日,國家發(fā)改委應對氣候變化司推出自愿減排交易信息平臺,CCER注冊登記簿系統(tǒng)預計將會在2014年上半年上線,這標志著中國CCER(核證自愿減排量)的交易邁出了實質性的一步,也是中國碳交易市場發(fā)展的一個里程碑一步。預計到2015年左右,我國將建成遍及全國統(tǒng)一的碳交易市場。 然而建設中國碳交易市場的最大難題在于確定碳配額以及如何分配配額。按照市場功能碳交易市場可以分為碳排放權配額的初始分配的一級市場和碳排放權自行交易的二級市場。在交易市場中,配額總量決定著市場配額總供給量,而配額總量的確定的前提是要確定碳排放量。一級市場在此基礎上為不同行業(yè)和企業(yè)分配配額,交易市場配額的稀缺性進一步影響了其交易的價格。于是本文利用MARKAL-MACRO非線性動態(tài)規(guī)劃模型把經(jīng)濟系統(tǒng)中GDP、經(jīng)濟增長率、人口數(shù)量、資本存量、勞動投入量等數(shù)據(jù)和能源系統(tǒng)中電力行業(yè)、煉油行業(yè)、焦炭行業(yè)、洗煤行業(yè)、石油石化行業(yè)、煤制油行業(yè)、煤制氣行業(yè)、煤加工等行業(yè)的數(shù)據(jù)結合一起,將經(jīng)濟系統(tǒng)和能源系統(tǒng)看作統(tǒng)一的實體,在系統(tǒng)貼現(xiàn)效率最大化的條件下,計算出2015～2050年全國CO2排放總量,為中國碳交易市場的碳配額的確定提供數(shù)據(jù)參考,另一方面,參考當前國際上主要的碳交易市場,針對我國碳交易市場的現(xiàn)狀和存在的問題,明確了我國碳交易市場的交易場所、交易產(chǎn)品、交易機制、交易價格形成機制、監(jiān)管機制等要素。 本文結構安排如下：第一章闡述文章的研究意義、文獻綜述、研究內(nèi)容和創(chuàng)新點以及不足之處；第二部分主要介紹了當前國際上主要的碳交易市場；第三部分是MARKAL-MACRO模型的介紹和應用及結果分析；第四部分主要討論中國碳交易市場構建研究,分析當前中國交易市場的現(xiàn)狀以及對構建中國碳交易市場的提出一些建議。 此外,本文采用的數(shù)據(jù)來源于2003-2012年的相關年鑒,使計算結果更具有現(xiàn)實意義。當然,本文亦存在不足之處,由于文章中數(shù)據(jù)可得性有限,因此在模型計算過程中,進行了許多假設,這也使得計算出來的數(shù)據(jù)與實際的數(shù)據(jù)有一定的出入。
[Abstract]:After 2008, China overtook the United States to become the world's largest CO2 emitter, as a non-Annex I country under the Kyoto Protocol. Using market means to promote China's emission reduction has become an irreversible direction in the world. The construction of China's carbon trading market is not only the requirement of current national policies and regulations, but also the only way to connect with the international carbon trading market. Comprehensive national policies, the proportion of industrial output value in different regions, energy consumption structure and regional CO2 historical emissions and other factors, China's carbon trading market should be in the order of the first region, then the national order, November 2011. It has taken the lead in setting up carbon emissions trading pilot in Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Chongqing, Hubei, Guangdong and Shenzhen. In June 18th 2013, Shenzhen emission trading pilot has been launched. It is expected that at the end of 2013, the other 6 provinces and cities will start trading pilot work in full. On October 24th 2013, the National Development and Reform Commission launched a voluntary emission reduction trading information platform for the Department of Climate change. The CCER registry system is expected to be launched in the first half of 2014, marking a substantial step forward in the trade of China's CCERs (certified voluntary emission reductions). It is also a milestone in the development of China's carbon trading market. It is expected that by 2015, China will have a unified carbon trading market all over the country. However, the biggest problem in building China's carbon trading market is to determine carbon quotas and how to allocate them. According to market function, carbon trading market can be divided into primary market and carbon emission rights market. A secondary market for trading. In a trading market. The total quantity of quota determines the total supply of market quota, and the premise of determining the total quantity of quota is to determine the carbon emission. On this basis, the primary market allocates quotas for different industries and enterprises. The scarcity of the quota in the trading market further affects the price of the transaction. So this paper uses the MARKAL-MACRO nonlinear dynamic programming model to analyze the economic growth rate in the economic system. Population, capital stock, labor input and other data and energy systems in the power industry, oil refining industry, coke industry, coal washing industry, petroleum and petrochemical industry, coal oil industry, coal gas industry. Combined with the data of coal processing and other industries, the economic system and energy system are regarded as a unified entity. Under the condition of maximizing the discount efficiency of the system, the total amount of CO2 emissions in the whole country from 2015 to 2050 is calculated. On the other hand, referring to the main international carbon trading market, aiming at the current situation and existing problems of China's carbon trading market. The trading place, trading products, trading mechanism, price formation mechanism and supervision mechanism of carbon trading market in China are clarified. The structure of this paper is as follows: the first chapter describes the significance of the article, literature review, research content and innovation, as well as shortcomings; The second part mainly introduces the main international carbon trading market; The third part is the introduction, application and result analysis of MARKAL-MACRO model. Part 4th mainly discusses the construction of China's carbon trading market, analyzes the current situation of China's carbon trading market and puts forward some suggestions for the construction of China's carbon trading market. In addition, the data used in this paper come from the relevant yearbooks of 2003-2012, which makes the results more practical. Of course, there are some shortcomings in this paper, because of the limited availability of data in the paper. Therefore, many assumptions are made in the process of model calculation, which makes the calculated data and the actual data somewhat different.
【學位授予單位】：東北財經(jīng)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F224;F124.5;F832.5

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本文編號：1407944