本文關(guān)鍵詞： 城市社區(qū) 應(yīng)急疏散 情景-應(yīng)對(duì) 案例驅(qū)動(dòng) 準(zhǔn)備規(guī)劃　出處：《哈爾濱工業(yè)大學(xué)》2017年博士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：隨著城市化進(jìn)程的日益加快及城市建設(shè)的快速發(fā)展,作為現(xiàn)代人們生活、生產(chǎn)的主要活動(dòng)區(qū)域,城市的人口越來越稠密。一方面城市人口的增加為社會(huì)發(fā)展提供著源動(dòng)力,另一方面人群聚集通常也是事故發(fā)生的隱患,有時(shí)也是造成二次事故發(fā)生的根源。一般人口擁擠度越高,事故發(fā)生后造成的災(zāi)難也就越大,人口與物質(zhì)的高度集中使城市面臨災(zāi)害時(shí)的易損性大大增加。尤其城市中人員密集場(chǎng)所,其人群密度非常大、流動(dòng)性很強(qiáng),一旦發(fā)生突發(fā)事件等緊急情況,在安全疏散設(shè)施不完備或者疏散決策不合理時(shí),就有可能造成大量人員傷亡和財(cái)產(chǎn)損失。社區(qū)作為城市中最基本的空間單元、基本的功能地域及行政單元,成為了城市防災(zāi)、減災(zāi)規(guī)劃中最具操作意義的空間單元,由于其人口密度高、人員種類多樣,以其進(jìn)行應(yīng)急疏散研究具典型的示范作用。本文基于“情景-應(yīng)對(duì)”研究了應(yīng)急管理領(lǐng)域相關(guān)問題,以管理學(xué)、計(jì)算機(jī)科學(xué)、災(zāi)害學(xué)等多個(gè)學(xué)科的理論技術(shù)為基礎(chǔ),提出了社區(qū)應(yīng)急疏散情景應(yīng)對(duì)規(guī)劃的案例-模型驅(qū)動(dòng)方法,并對(duì)其在社區(qū)應(yīng)急疏散過程中的應(yīng)用進(jìn)行了研究。按照社區(qū)應(yīng)急疏散理論分析、社區(qū)應(yīng)急準(zhǔn)備規(guī)劃框架構(gòu)建、并基于準(zhǔn)備規(guī)劃框架進(jìn)行案例的情景應(yīng)對(duì)建模和疏散本體構(gòu)建的順序,設(shè)計(jì)了全文研究路徑。首先,對(duì)以往應(yīng)急疏散研究理論進(jìn)行了回顧,并提出了本研究所需的基本理論,即案例驅(qū)動(dòng)理論與情景認(rèn)知理論。其中,根據(jù)案例驅(qū)動(dòng)理論,提出了社區(qū)應(yīng)急疏散案例的要素構(gòu)成和任務(wù)推理等內(nèi)容;根據(jù)情景認(rèn)知理論,提出了社區(qū)應(yīng)急疏散中的情景內(nèi)涵,并建立社區(qū)應(yīng)急疏散情景框架。在已有研究及案例的基礎(chǔ)上,比較三類社區(qū)突發(fā)事件案例,提取了三類社區(qū)突發(fā)事件的應(yīng)急疏散情景特征和應(yīng)急疏散任務(wù)特征。其次,設(shè)計(jì)了案例驅(qū)動(dòng)的社區(qū)應(yīng)急疏散準(zhǔn)備規(guī)劃框架。通過對(duì)社區(qū)應(yīng)急疏散全流程中的預(yù)案、決策、任務(wù)、能力等分析,設(shè)計(jì)了主要包括災(zāi)害情景認(rèn)知布局、應(yīng)急疏散資源布局與應(yīng)急疏散“數(shù)據(jù)-信息-知識(shí)”布局的框架體系,并在此基礎(chǔ)上構(gòu)建了致災(zāi)因子、疏散對(duì)象與疏散任務(wù)等三類情景-應(yīng)對(duì)要素。特別是,在該框架中引入案例推理功能模塊,可提升相應(yīng)的社區(qū)應(yīng)急疏散管理體系的運(yùn)行效率與執(zhí)行效果。再次,提出基于案例驅(qū)動(dòng)的社區(qū)應(yīng)急疏散情景應(yīng)對(duì)建模方法。針對(duì)應(yīng)急疏散決策,將案例驅(qū)動(dòng)方法和智能建模技術(shù)有機(jī)結(jié)合,構(gòu)建了相關(guān)的結(jié)構(gòu)模型和本體模型,實(shí)現(xiàn)了社區(qū)應(yīng)急疏散情景應(yīng)對(duì)的過程元模型、情景元模型、任務(wù)元模型的形式化,并實(shí)現(xiàn)不確定和動(dòng)態(tài)環(huán)境下的過程建模。然后,闡明了本文基于案例驅(qū)動(dòng)進(jìn)行社區(qū)應(yīng)急疏散本體構(gòu)建的方法�？紤]應(yīng)急疏散情景應(yīng)對(duì)環(huán)境下各本體的特點(diǎn),在社區(qū)應(yīng)急疏散本體框架構(gòu)建的過程中,首先將社區(qū)應(yīng)急疏散影響因素本體分類,并基于影響因素本體研究了社區(qū)應(yīng)急疏散的狀態(tài)本體,并由此構(gòu)建了社區(qū)應(yīng)急疏散狀態(tài)本體的框架。在這個(gè)過程中,研究發(fā)現(xiàn)應(yīng)急疏散知識(shí)本體的共享對(duì)應(yīng)急疏散效率影響十分顯著,基于這個(gè)原因,本文構(gòu)建了知識(shí)本體共享框架、并分析了知識(shí)本體共享的基本流程和實(shí)現(xiàn)路徑規(guī)劃,以保證應(yīng)急疏散可以有序高效地進(jìn)行。最后,提出案例驅(qū)動(dòng)的社區(qū)應(yīng)急情景決策桌面培訓(xùn)方法。該方法集成了案例推理、綜合集成方法與頓悟?qū)W習(xí)法,以此構(gòu)建了“互動(dòng)-學(xué)習(xí)-頓悟-強(qiáng)化(ILIS)”的應(yīng)急桌面培訓(xùn)學(xué)習(xí)機(jī)制,其可通過源案例決策觀點(diǎn)生成、目標(biāo)案例決策觀點(diǎn)互動(dòng)學(xué)習(xí)、頓悟啟發(fā)與強(qiáng)化檢驗(yàn)來提升應(yīng)急決策者面向特定災(zāi)害情景的決策能力。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of city urbanization process is accelerating and city construction, as the life of modern people, the main production area, the city population is more and more dense. On the one hand to increase the population of the city to provide a source of power for the development of the society, on the other hand, the crowd is often the hidden danger of accidents, sometimes also caused two accidents the cause of the general population. The higher the degree of congestion, after the accident caused by the disaster is bigger, the highly concentrated population and material make the city facing disaster vulnerability is greatly increased. Especially in crowded places in the city, the population density is very large, liquidity is very strong, once the incident occurred in an emergency in the circumstances, the safety evacuation facilities or incomplete evacuation decision is not reasonable, it may cause a large number of casualties and property losses. The community as the basic spatial unit in the city, the basic The function of geographical and administrative units, the city has become a disaster prevention and mitigation planning, spatial unit in the most operation significance, because of its high population density, species diversity in the personnel, emergency evacuation demonstration research. In this paper, with a typical "scenario response" is studied based on relevant problems in emergency management, to management computer science and technology, theory of disaster science as the basis, proposed the method of driving the emergency evacuation scene coping planning community case model, and its application in the community emergency evacuation process was studied. According to the theoretical analysis of emergency evacuation community, construction of emergency preparedness planning framework based on community, and situational coping for the case of the modeling framework for planning and evacuation order of ontology construction, design the path of the whole dissertation. Firstly, the previous research of emergency evacuation theory review, and puts forward The basic theory for this study, namely case driven theory and situational cognitive theory. Among them, according to the case driven theory, put forward the elements of emergency evacuation case of community composition and task reasoning etc.; according to the situation of cognitive theory, proposed the community emergency evacuation of the scene in connotation, and the establishment of emergency evacuation scenarios based on framework of community. The existing research and case, compare the three types of community emergency case, extracted three types of community emergency evacuation and emergency evacuation scenario feature task characteristics. Secondly, the design of the case driven community emergency evacuation preparedness planning framework. Through the whole process of community emergency evacuation plan, decision-making, task, ability etc. the design mainly includes the analysis of disaster scene cognition layout, resource allocation and emergency evacuation of emergency evacuation "framework of data - Information - knowledge layout, and based On the construction of the disaster factors, evacuation and evacuation task object three scenario response elements. In particular, the introduction of case reasoning module in the framework, operation efficiency and execution effect can improve the corresponding community emergency evacuation management system. Thirdly, put forward the case driven community emergency evacuation modeling method based on scene coping. According to the emergency evacuation decision, the case driven method and intelligent modeling technology organically, build a structure model and ontology model, the Guo Chengyuan model of emergency evacuation scenarios dealing with community, situational element model, task model formalization, and the realization process of modeling uncertain and dynamic environment. Then, the in this case driven method of community emergency evacuation based on ontology construction. Considering the characteristics of the emergency evacuation situation to deal with ontology environment, in the community emergency evacuation body frame The process of architecture construction, firstly factors affecting the classification of emergency evacuation ontology community, and the influence factors on the status of ontology based on Ontology community emergency evacuation, and thus build a framework of emergency evacuation state ontology community. In this process, the study found that the emergency evacuation of sharing knowledge ontology for emergency evacuation efficiency effect is very significant, based on for this reason, this paper constructs the ontology knowledge sharing framework, and analyzes the basic flow of knowledge ontology and Realization of path planning, to ensure that emergency evacuation can be ordered effectively. Finally, put forward the community emergency scenario decision-making desktop case driven training method. This method integrates case-based reasoning, integrated method and insight learning method. In order to build a "interactive learning - epiphany - enhanced (ILIS)" emergency desktop training mechanism, which can be the source case decision idea generation, Objective case decision view interactive learning, insight inspiration and intensive test to improve decision-making ability of emergency decision-makers facing specific disaster situations.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：哈爾濱工業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：D63
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本文編號(hào)：1498058