【摘要】：近幾年來,白酒行業(yè)的市場形勢低迷,而且競爭壓力極大,一直處在寒冬期。白酒行業(yè)已經(jīng)不復(fù)2002-2012年的十年黃金的輝煌巔峰成就,從2012年以來,白酒行業(yè)出現(xiàn)了酒鬼酒塑化劑事件和古井貢酒勾兌門,這使白酒行業(yè)陷入巨大危機;而且因“三公消費”、禁酒令等政策因素和中國經(jīng)濟發(fā)展速度放緩的大背景下的白酒產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展周期的因素影響下,白酒行業(yè)正處于現(xiàn)在的寒冬期。安徽J(rèn)酒業(yè)股份有限公司是一家擁有兩個中國馳名商標(biāo)、一個“中華老字號”產(chǎn)品的堅持打造中國大眾名酒實力品牌的白酒上市公司。公司近年來受白酒行業(yè)整體影響,雖然整體產(chǎn)業(yè)規(guī)模不斷擴大,可是盈利能力和成長能力都在逐年下降,目前公司雖然沒有出現(xiàn)虧損,可面對潛在財務(wù)風(fēng)險,管理層依然需要重視。本文通過對安徽J(rèn)酒業(yè)股份有限公司進行財務(wù)分析,建立適合安徽J(rèn)酒業(yè)股份有限公司的財務(wù)風(fēng)險模型,有利于公司管理層對企業(yè)財務(wù)風(fēng)險的實時掌控,能夠讓企業(yè)及時地規(guī)避傷害到自身的財務(wù)風(fēng)險。首先,簡單地介紹了白酒行業(yè)發(fā)展的背景情況以及白酒行業(yè)需要建立財務(wù)風(fēng)險預(yù)警的研究背景與研究意義,分別從風(fēng)險、財務(wù)風(fēng)險和風(fēng)險預(yù)警這三個方面梳理了國內(nèi)外的研究現(xiàn)狀,并加以評述,并且介紹了風(fēng)險、財務(wù)風(fēng)險、風(fēng)險預(yù)警以及現(xiàn)金流量等相關(guān)概念和理論研究。其次,對安徽J(rèn)酒業(yè)股份有限公司的主營業(yè)務(wù)、企業(yè)規(guī)模、市場競爭力等方面進行了介紹,并分別從籌資風(fēng)險、投資風(fēng)險、經(jīng)營風(fēng)險及收益分配風(fēng)險這四個方面出發(fā),由縱向和橫向兩個方向,采用傳統(tǒng)財務(wù)指標(biāo)全面對安徽J(rèn)酒業(yè)股份有限公司進行財務(wù)分析,與行業(yè)內(nèi)可比企業(yè)相比較,發(fā)現(xiàn)安徽J(rèn)酒業(yè)股份有限公司存在著長期償債能力不足,對外投資情況不穩(wěn)定,企業(yè)盈利狀況差,主營業(yè)務(wù)收入和凈利潤均逐年遞減等財務(wù)風(fēng)險問題。最后,結(jié)合行業(yè)特點和企業(yè)的實際情況,將基于資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表和利潤表基礎(chǔ)上的財務(wù)指標(biāo)與基于現(xiàn)金流量表上的現(xiàn)金流量指標(biāo)結(jié)合在一起,分別從籌資風(fēng)險、投資風(fēng)險、經(jīng)營風(fēng)險及收益分配風(fēng)險這四個層次著手,通過與行業(yè)內(nèi)可比企業(yè)財務(wù)風(fēng)險預(yù)警指標(biāo)數(shù)據(jù)對比來構(gòu)建安徽J(rèn)酒業(yè)股份有限公司財務(wù)風(fēng)險預(yù)警模型。運用可比企業(yè)的預(yù)警結(jié)果對建立的財務(wù)風(fēng)險預(yù)警模型作相應(yīng)的驗證,并為安徽J(rèn)酒業(yè)股份有限公司財務(wù)風(fēng)險進行預(yù)警,并發(fā)現(xiàn)安徽J(rèn)酒業(yè)股份有限公司2015年的財務(wù)風(fēng)險與同行業(yè)可比企業(yè)相比,總體處于輕警狀態(tài),企業(yè)成長能力比較嚴(yán)重下降。并從企業(yè)過度營銷策略、品牌戰(zhàn)略、現(xiàn)金流量管理以及風(fēng)險管控部門建立等角度提出了適合安徽J(rèn)酒業(yè)股份有限公司的具體的財務(wù)風(fēng)險防范措施。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the market situation of liquor industry is low, and the competition pressure is great. The liquor industry is no longer at the golden peak of the decade from 2002 to 2012. Since 2012, the liquor industry has seen the event of wine and wine plasticizer and the blending door of Gujing Gong, which has plunged the liquor industry into a huge crisis; and because of the "three public consumption," Under the influence of the policy factors such as prohibition and the development cycle of liquor industry under the background of slowing down of China's economic development the liquor industry is now in the cold winter period. Anhui J Liquor Co., Ltd is a listed liquor company with two famous Chinese trademarks and one famous Chinese brand. In recent years, the company has been affected by the liquor industry as a whole. Although the overall scale of the industry continues to expand, the profitability and growth ability of the company are declining year by year. Although the company has not made a loss at present, it can face potential financial risks. Management still needs attention. Based on the financial analysis of Anhui J Liquor Co., Ltd., this paper establishes a financial risk model suitable for Anhui J Liquor Co., Ltd., which is helpful for the management of the company to control the financial risk of the enterprise in real time. Can let the enterprise avoid the financial risk that hurts oneself in time. Firstly, the background of the development of liquor industry and the research background and significance of establishing financial risk early warning in liquor industry are briefly introduced. This paper reviews the current situation of financial risk and risk warning at home and abroad, and introduces the concepts and theories of risk, financial risk, risk early warning and cash flow. Secondly, it introduces the main business, enterprise scale and market competitiveness of Anhui J Wine Co., Ltd., and starts from four aspects: financing risk, investment risk, management risk and income distribution risk. From the vertical and horizontal directions, this paper makes a comprehensive financial analysis of Anhui J Liquor Co., Ltd. by using traditional financial indicators. Compared with comparable enterprises in the industry, Anhui J Liquor Co., Ltd. is found to have insufficient long-term solvency. The foreign investment is unstable, the enterprise profit condition is bad, the main business income and the net profit both decrease year by year and so on financial risk problem. Finally, according to the characteristics of the industry and the actual situation of the enterprise, the financial indicators based on the balance sheet and the profit statement are combined with the cash flow indicators based on the cash flow statement, respectively from the financing risk, investment risk, Starting from the four levels of management risk and income distribution risk, the financial risk early warning model of Anhui J Liquor Co., Ltd. is constructed by comparing with the financial risk warning index data of comparable enterprises in the industry. Using the warning results of comparable enterprises to verify the established financial risk warning model, and for Anhui J Liquor Co., Ltd. financial risk early warning, It is also found that the financial risk of Anhui J Liquor Co., Ltd. in 2015 is in a state of light warning compared with comparable enterprises in the same industry, and the growth ability of enterprises is seriously reduced. From the perspective of excessive marketing strategy, brand strategy, cash flow management and the establishment of risk control department, this paper puts forward specific financial risk prevention measures suitable for Anhui J Wine Co., Ltd.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：阜陽師范學(xué)院
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F426.82;F406.7

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