本文選題：平安大廈　切入點：風(fēng)險管理　出處：《湖南大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：隨著中國經(jīng)濟的快速發(fā)展,房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)發(fā)展迅猛,在房地產(chǎn)項目建設(shè)過程中,難免會遇到來自各個方面的風(fēng)險因素的影響,為了規(guī)避和降低這些風(fēng)險因素對于項目實施的影響,做好項目風(fēng)險管理越來越重要。隨著項目管理理論體系的不斷完善,國內(nèi)外風(fēng)險管理相關(guān)理論方法也在進一步發(fā)展中,逐漸發(fā)展成為一門綜合性學(xué)科。然而,我國在房地產(chǎn)建設(shè)項目風(fēng)險管理的應(yīng)用上還處于起步階段,相對于國外發(fā)達(dá)國家還存在一定的差距,因此,房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)企業(yè)必須認(rèn)真審視和充分認(rèn)識到項目風(fēng)險管理在房地產(chǎn)建設(shè)項目中的重要價值。本文以平安大廈房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)項目為研究對象,運用項目風(fēng)險管理理論和方法對其進行了實證分析,主要研究內(nèi)容如下:首先,闡述了本文的選題背景、研究意義、國內(nèi)外風(fēng)險管理研究現(xiàn)狀,介紹了平安大廈房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)項目基本情況,提出了本文的研究方法、研究內(nèi)容及結(jié)構(gòu)框架;其次,闡述了項目風(fēng)險管理、項目風(fēng)險分析方法等理論基礎(chǔ);再次,識別出平安大廈房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)項目決策階段、準(zhǔn)備階段、實施階段、經(jīng)營階段存在的主要風(fēng)險因素,在此基礎(chǔ)上,建立了平安大廈房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)項目風(fēng)險評價指標(biāo)體系,運用基于層次分析法和專家打分法對項目風(fēng)險做出評價;最后,提出平安大廈房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)項目風(fēng)險應(yīng)對措施,在項目決策階段,要強化市場調(diào)研活動、采用科學(xué)方法確定項目估算、加強市場分析和預(yù)測、做好財務(wù)分析和現(xiàn)金流預(yù)測、健全風(fēng)險預(yù)警系統(tǒng);在項目準(zhǔn)備階段,要重視項目設(shè)計方案的經(jīng)濟分析、做好項目施工招標(biāo)工作、加強項目施工合同管理、強化與各方溝通交流、做好項目實施前的市場預(yù)測;在項目實施階段,要加強施工安全管理和特種設(shè)備的檢測、有效控制工程變更、及時支付工程價款、工程量變化的價款確定與調(diào)整、核實工程變更和簽證、協(xié)調(diào)工期、質(zhì)量和成本的合理關(guān)系、注重檔案管理并建立預(yù)測機制;在項目經(jīng)營階段,要做好競爭項目的調(diào)研分析、加強市場趨向和政策預(yù)測研究、選擇合理的營銷模式。本文的創(chuàng)新點在于運用項目風(fēng)險管理理論和方法對平安大廈房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)項目進行了實證分析,在識別項目四個階段風(fēng)險因素的基礎(chǔ)上,建立了項目風(fēng)險評價指標(biāo)體系,運用基于層次分析法的模糊綜合評價方法對項目風(fēng)險做出評價,進而有針對性的提出了具體的項目風(fēng)險應(yīng)對措施,可為項目建設(shè)企業(yè)實施風(fēng)險管理提供理論方法指導(dǎo)和案例經(jīng)驗參考。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of China's economy and the rapid development of the real estate industry, in the process of real estate project construction, it is inevitable to meet the impact of various risk factors, in order to avoid and reduce the impact of these risk factors on the implementation of the project. It is more and more important to do a good job in project risk management. With the continuous improvement of project management theory system, the related theories and methods of risk management at home and abroad are developing further, and gradually develop into a comprehensive subject. The application of risk management in real estate construction projects in China is still in its infancy, and there is still a certain gap compared with developed countries abroad. Real estate development enterprises must carefully examine and fully realize the important value of project risk management in real estate construction projects. The main research contents are as follows: firstly, the background of this paper, the significance of the research, the current situation of risk management research at home and abroad, are analyzed empirically by using the theory and method of project risk management. This paper introduces the basic situation of the real estate development project of Ping an Mansion, and puts forward the research methods, contents and structure framework of this paper. Secondly, it expounds the theoretical basis of project risk management and project risk analysis. On the basis of identifying the main risk factors in the decision-making stage, preparation stage, implementation stage and management stage of the real estate development project of Ping an Mansion, a risk evaluation index system for the real estate development project of Ping'an Mansion is established. Based on AHP and expert scoring method to evaluate the project risk; finally, put forward the real estate development project risk response measures, in the project decision-making phase, we should strengthen market research activities, We should adopt scientific method to determine project estimation, strengthen market analysis and forecast, make financial analysis and cash flow forecast, perfect risk early warning system, and pay attention to the economic analysis of project design scheme in the stage of project preparation. To do a good job in bidding for construction projects, strengthen the management of project construction contracts, strengthen communication and exchange with all parties, and make good market forecasts before the implementation of projects; in the phase of project implementation, it is necessary to strengthen construction safety management and the inspection of special equipment, Effective control of engineering changes, timely payment of project cost, determination and adjustment of project quantity change price, verification of project change and visa, coordination of reasonable relationship between time limit, quality and cost, attention to file management and establishment of forecasting mechanism; In the project management phase, it is necessary to do a good job in the investigation and analysis of competitive projects, and strengthen market trends and policy prediction studies. The innovation of this paper is to use the theory and method of project risk management to analyze the real estate development project of Ping an Mansion, on the basis of identifying the risk factors in the four stages of the project. The index system of project risk evaluation is established, and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method based on AHP is used to evaluate the project risk, and then the concrete measures to deal with the project risk are put forward. It can provide theoretical guidance and case reference for project construction enterprises to implement risk management.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：湖南大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：TU71;F299.23

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本文編號：1572645