本文關鍵詞：含有營銷變量的BASS模型研究　出處：《北京郵電大學》2015年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

  更多相關文章： BASS模型 參數(shù)估計 實證研究 營銷變量 價格函數(shù) 最優(yōu)價格策略

【摘要】：20世紀60年代以來,隨著創(chuàng)新擴散理論的不斷深入研究,擴散模型在市場規(guī)模預測、產(chǎn)品擴散過程的預測中的應用引起了國內(nèi)外學者的廣泛關注,也不斷有形形色色的新的創(chuàng)新擴散模型的提出。其中,最著名的是Frank.M. BASS在1969年提出的BASS模型,此后該模型成為擴散模型的主要研究方向之一,并廣泛應用于汽車、通信、互聯(lián)網(wǎng)以及電子商務等產(chǎn)品的市場預測。 BASS首次提出該擴散模型時,為了便于微分方程的求解,提出了一系列的假設,例如產(chǎn)品擴散過程中,最大市場潛力不變、產(chǎn)品擴散不受價格等營銷變量的影響等,但后來隨著對產(chǎn)品擴散過程以及擴散模型研究的不斷深入,國內(nèi)學者不斷放寬BASS模型的假設條件,每個假設條件的修正都是BASS模型的一個改進方向。例如,人們逐漸認識到營銷因素對產(chǎn)品擴散過程具有重要的影響,而BASS基礎模型沒有考慮營銷因素,因此,以Robinson為代表的學者首次將價格納入BASS模型,研究含有價格函數(shù)的BASS模型。 現(xiàn)有含有價格變量的BASS改進模型研究中,主要將不同形式的價格函數(shù)引入基礎BASS模型。但是,將價格函數(shù)加入基礎BASS模型后,其微分方程的變量個數(shù)增加,形式更加復雜,很難給出解析解。因此,以往研究只局限于給出含有價格變量的改進模型,缺少實證分析。 由此可見,研究能夠便于進行實證研究的含有價格變量的BASS模型是一個有待解決的重要問題。為此,論文的研究目的是以基礎BASS模型及其擴展模型為理論基礎,通過對含有價格函數(shù)的BASS模型的改進,提出適合于實證研究的含有營銷變量的BASS模型,并將模型應用于營銷策略的制定中,以指導企業(yè)規(guī)劃最優(yōu)價格策略、最優(yōu)廣告策略等。論文的主要內(nèi)容包括： 價格是營銷變量中的重要因素,對產(chǎn)品擴散過程具有很大影響,這是因為價格不僅可以直接影響企業(yè)的收益,同時也是影響消費者購買意愿和行為的重要因素。因此,在利用BASS模型研究產(chǎn)品的擴散規(guī)律時,需考慮價格等營銷變量的影響。論文以現(xiàn)有含有營銷變量函數(shù)的BASS模型為理論基礎,將價格等營銷變量的函數(shù)直接加到BASS模型解析解上,得到了便于實證研究的含有價格函數(shù)的BASS模型。并以價格這一營銷變量為例,證明了將價格函數(shù)直接加到基礎BASS模型上和加在BASS模型解析解是等價的。并利用中國移動用戶數(shù)及其資費價格的歷史數(shù)據(jù),改進模型進行實證分析。結果表明,論文提出的改進BASS擴散模型可更好地描述產(chǎn)品的擴散過程,提高擴散模型的擬合精度。 研究產(chǎn)品擴散規(guī)律的目的是為了更好地指導企業(yè)制定有利的產(chǎn)品營銷、擴散策略,含有營銷變量的BASS模型研究是為了更好地在產(chǎn)品擴散的生命周期中,為企業(yè)提供決策建議和支持。論文以含有價格函數(shù)的BASS模型為基礎,建立利潤函數(shù)最大化的目標函數(shù),通過數(shù)學模型的論證,研究產(chǎn)品的價格函數(shù)的最優(yōu)解和參數(shù)靈敏度,并給出最優(yōu)解和參數(shù)變化的管理學意義,從而為企業(yè)制定產(chǎn)品價格策略提供決策依據(jù)。
[Abstract]:Since 1960s, with the deepening of research on innovation diffusion theory, the prediction on the size of the market diffusion model, prediction of product diffusion process in the attracted wide attention of scholars at home and abroad, put forward to the new innovation diffusion model of every hue. In which the most famous is the BASS model which was proposed by Frank.M. BASS in 1969 since then, this model has become one of the main research direction of diffusion model, and is widely used in automobile, communication, Internet and e-commerce and other products market forecasts.
BASS first proposed the diffusion model, in order to solve the differential equations, put forward a series of assumptions, such as product diffusion process, the same maximum market potential, product diffusion is not affected by the price of marketing variables, but later with the product diffusion process and the diffusion model of the continuous deepening of research, domestic scholars to relax the assumption of the BASS model, modified each hypothesis conditions are an improved direction BASS model. For example, people gradually realize that the marketing factors have important influence on product diffusion process, and the BASS based model does not consider the marketing factors, therefore, scholars represented by Robinson will be the first price in the BASS model. Study on BASS model containing price function.
The existing BASS contains the price variable improved model in this study, the main different forms of price function into the BASS model. However, the price of adding a function of BASS model, the differential equation of the number of variables increases, form more complex, difficult to obtain the analytical solution. Therefore, previous research is limited to the improved model are contained the price variable, lack of empirical analysis.
Thus, the research can facilitate the BASS model with price variable for empirical research is an important problem to be solved. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is based on the BASS model and its extended model as the theoretical basis, through improved BASS model with price function, put forward BASS model with marketing variables for empirical research, and the model is applied in the formulation of the marketing strategy, to guide the enterprise planning optimal price strategy, optimal advertising strategy. The main contents of this paper include:
The price is an important factor of marketing variables, has great influence on the product diffusion process, this is because the price can not only directly affect the profits of enterprises, but also an important factor affecting consumer purchase intention and behavior. Therefore, in the study of BASS model of product diffusion law, need to consider the effect of price and other marketing variables. The BASS model contains variable functions to the existing marketing theory, the analytic function is applied directly to the BASS price model of marketing variables on the solutions obtained, containing function of price BASS model for empirical research. And the price of the marketing variables, for example, that will be directly added to the price function based on BASS model in addition to BASS and analytical solution of the model is proved. And the use of historical data and the number of users of China Mobile price, the improved model for empirical analysis. The results show that the proposed The improved BASS diffusion model can better describe the diffusion process of the product and improve the fitting precision of the diffusion model.
Research on product diffusion in order to guide enterprises to establish favorable product marketing, diffusion strategy, BASS model with marketing variables is in order to better product diffusion in the life cycle, provide advice and support for the enterprise. Based on the BASS model with the price function based on the objective function to establish a profit function maximization, through mathematical model demonstration, the optimal price function of product solutions and parameter sensitivity, meaning change and give the optimal solution and parameter management, so as to provide decision-making basis for enterprise to develop product price strategy.

【學位授予單位】：北京郵電大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：F274

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