本文關(guān)鍵詞： 熱電聯(lián)產(chǎn)項目 風(fēng)險管理 模糊灰色綜合評價　出處：《華北電力大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：風(fēng)險管理是工程項目管理中綜合性較強(qiáng)的一種管理方法,是由包括風(fēng)險識別、風(fēng)險分析及風(fēng)險控制等一系列流程組成的一種解決不確定性問題的方法。在工程項目管理中,風(fēng)險管理是及其重要的組成部分。近年來,國家對發(fā)展能源工業(yè)、優(yōu)化能源產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)提出了新的要求。電源建設(shè)承擔(dān)著城市基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)與能源供應(yīng)雙重身份,其節(jié)能性與環(huán)保性更為重要。熱電聯(lián)產(chǎn)同時兼有發(fā)電和供熱兩方面作用,其能否順利實施直接影響著城市整體能源供應(yīng)和產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的優(yōu)化,因此應(yīng)做好熱電聯(lián)產(chǎn)項目風(fēng)險評價和風(fēng)險控制防范工作。本文結(jié)合項目風(fēng)險評價要求及熱電聯(lián)產(chǎn)項目實際情況構(gòu)建熱電聯(lián)產(chǎn)項目風(fēng)險評價指標(biāo)體系,設(shè)計評價模型對其風(fēng)險水平進(jìn)行評價具有一定的理論和現(xiàn)實意義。論文首先論述了熱電聯(lián)產(chǎn)項目及風(fēng)險管理的相關(guān)理論,參照建設(shè)項目風(fēng)險評價指標(biāo)體系構(gòu)建原則,構(gòu)建了熱電聯(lián)產(chǎn)項目風(fēng)險評價指標(biāo)體系。從市場風(fēng)險、技術(shù)風(fēng)險、工程風(fēng)險、資金風(fēng)險、政策風(fēng)險和外部協(xié)作風(fēng)險等方面詳細(xì)分析了喀什350MW熱電聯(lián)產(chǎn)項目的風(fēng)險。從風(fēng)險評價指標(biāo)的特點出發(fā),利用模糊灰色評價方法構(gòu)建了熱電聯(lián)產(chǎn)項目風(fēng)險評價模型,將此模型應(yīng)用于喀什350MW熱電聯(lián)產(chǎn)項目的風(fēng)險評價中,計算結(jié)果表明本文建立的體系評價指標(biāo)體系及評價方法切實可行,能較好地解決熱電聯(lián)產(chǎn)項目風(fēng)險評價問題,希望能為我國熱電聯(lián)產(chǎn)項目風(fēng)險評價提供一定的指導(dǎo)作用。
[Abstract]:Risk management is a comprehensive management method in engineering project management, which consists of a series of processes including risk identification, risk analysis and risk control. Risk management is an important part. In recent years, the state has put forward new requirements to develop energy industry and optimize the structure of energy industry. Power supply construction bears the dual status of urban infrastructure construction and energy supply. It is more important to save energy and protect environment. The cogeneration of heat and power has two functions of power generation and heat supply, and its smooth implementation will directly affect the overall energy supply and the optimization of industrial structure in the city. Therefore, the risk assessment and risk control of cogeneration project should be done well. This paper constructs the risk evaluation index system of cogeneration project according to the project risk evaluation requirements and the actual situation of the cogeneration project. It has certain theoretical and practical significance to design evaluation model to evaluate its risk level. Firstly, the paper discusses the related theories of cogeneration project and risk management, and constructs the principle of risk evaluation index system of construction project. The evaluation index system of heat and power cogeneration project risk is constructed, which includes market risk, technical risk, engineering risk, capital risk, The risk of cogeneration project in Kashi 350 MW is analyzed in detail from the aspects of policy risk and external cooperation risk. Based on the characteristics of risk evaluation index, the risk evaluation model of cogeneration project is constructed by using fuzzy grey evaluation method. The model is applied to the risk evaluation of the cogeneration project in Kashi 350 MW. The results show that the evaluation index system and the evaluation method are feasible and can solve the risk evaluation problem of the cogeneration project. Hope to provide some guidance for China's cogeneration project risk evaluation.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華北電力大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：TM621;TU71

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)碩士學(xué)位論文 前1條

1 吳健民;基于灰色層次分析法的熱電聯(lián)產(chǎn)項目風(fēng)險評價研究[D];華北電力大學(xué);2012年

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本文編號：1513185