【摘要】：摘要：安全生產(chǎn)一直是一個(gè)全民關(guān)注的話題,尤其是當(dāng)前日益興起的物流業(yè),安全管理不容忽視�，F(xiàn)階段隨著物流業(yè)的迅速發(fā)展,我國物流企業(yè)數(shù)量逐漸增多,缺乏有序監(jiān)管,物流企業(yè)安全生產(chǎn)形勢(shì)不容樂觀,尤其是在危險(xiǎn)品儲(chǔ)存及運(yùn)輸?shù)拳h(huán)節(jié),重特大事故時(shí)有發(fā)生。企業(yè)安全投入雖然有所加大,但安全生產(chǎn)現(xiàn)狀仍沒有大的改觀,究其根本原因是企業(yè)前期安全防范不到位,安全投入缺乏理論與實(shí)踐相結(jié)合,安全投入決策不夠科學(xué)導(dǎo)致效益不高。目前,我國對(duì)物流安全投入的研究還不甚完善,繼續(xù)深入安全投入的預(yù)測(cè)和優(yōu)化研究可以為企業(yè)安全投入決策提供依據(jù)。 企業(yè)安全投入工作具有一定的復(fù)雜性和長期性,基于安全投入具有一定的時(shí)間節(jié)點(diǎn),本文采用灰色系統(tǒng)理論建立灰色微分預(yù)測(cè)模型,對(duì)企業(yè)安全費(fèi)用的支出規(guī)律做出模糊性的長期描述,對(duì)企業(yè)未來的安全投入總額進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè)；在安全投入的優(yōu)化環(huán)節(jié),考慮風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的“貢獻(xiàn)”程度是衡量風(fēng)險(xiǎn)重要度的指標(biāo),本文在事故分析、專家問卷方法的基礎(chǔ)之上,采用貢獻(xiàn)率權(quán)重模型對(duì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素作用于物流生產(chǎn)事故的貢獻(xiàn)程度進(jìn)行描述,獲取貢獻(xiàn)率權(quán)重,對(duì)安全投入優(yōu)化分配進(jìn)行指導(dǎo)。 本文在分析研究安全投入理論的基礎(chǔ)上,基于GM(1,1)灰色預(yù)測(cè)模型預(yù)測(cè)企業(yè)安全投入總額；通過物流行業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素辨識(shí)和貢獻(xiàn)率權(quán)重測(cè)算獲取安全投入方向,結(jié)合企業(yè)自身安全生產(chǎn)的需求,基于最優(yōu)化理論(Optimality Theory)建立線性規(guī)劃模型進(jìn)行安全資源分配。通過兩種理論結(jié)合而成的OT-GM (Optimality Theory-Grey Model)模型進(jìn)行安全投入的優(yōu)化研究,同時(shí)提出相應(yīng)的合理化建議。
[Abstract]:Abstract: safety in production has always been a topic of concern to the whole people, especially the rising logistics industry, safety management can not be ignored. At present, with the rapid development of logistics industry, the number of logistics enterprises in China is gradually increasing, lack of orderly supervision, the situation of production safety in logistics enterprises is not optimistic, especially in the storage and transportation of dangerous goods, serious accidents occur from time to time. Although the investment in safety of enterprises has increased, the present situation of safety in production has not improved greatly. The fundamental reason is that the safety prevention in the early stage of the enterprise is not in place, and the safety investment is lack of the combination of theory and practice. Safety investment decision-making is not scientific enough to lead to low efficiency. At present, the research on logistics safety input in our country is not very perfect, and the further research on the prediction and optimization of safety input can provide the basis for the decision-making of enterprise safety input. The safety input of enterprises has certain complexity and long-term nature. Based on the fact that the safety investment has a certain time node, this paper uses the grey system theory to establish the grey differential prediction model. This paper makes a fuzzy long-term description of the expenditure law of the enterprise safety cost, and forecasts the total safety investment of the enterprise in the future. In the optimization of safety input, considering the "contribution" of risk is an index to measure the importance of risk. This paper is based on accident analysis and expert questionnaire method. The contribution rate weight model is used to describe the contribution degree of risk factors on logistics production accidents, to obtain the contribution rate weight, and to guide the optimal distribution of safety input. On the basis of analyzing and studying the theory of safety investment, this paper forecasts the total amount of enterprise safety investment based on GM (1, 1) grey prediction model. Through the identification of risk factors and the calculation of contribution rate weight in logistics industry, the direction of safety input is obtained, and the linear programming model is established based on optimization theory (Optimality Theory) to allocate safety resources according to the demand of enterprise safety in production. The OT-GM (Optimality Theory-Grey Model) model, which is a combination of the two theories, is used to optimize the safety input, and the corresponding rationalization suggestions are put forward at the same time.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：北京交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號(hào)】：F259.2

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