【摘要】：物流設(shè)施設(shè)備的性能發(fā)揮、先進性是物流企業(yè)的物流技術(shù)水平的重要表現(xiàn)。針對我國大多數(shù)的物流企業(yè)設(shè)備維護觀念落后、維護策略制定缺乏科學(xué)依據(jù)、設(shè)備故障事故頻繁發(fā)生、維修費用居高不下等問題，論文對物流設(shè)備的狀態(tài)維護進行研究，考慮了物流設(shè)備作業(yè)量、操作人員經(jīng)驗等認知不確定因素的影響，建立基于馬爾可夫決策過程的物流設(shè)備狀態(tài)維護模型，并進行了魯棒優(yōu)化研究，，對于優(yōu)化人力和維修資源，提高設(shè)備管理效率，具有重要理論價值和實際意義。 首先，論文總結(jié)歸納了物流設(shè)備維護的理論基礎(chǔ)，在物流設(shè)備分類的基礎(chǔ)上，總結(jié)了我國物流設(shè)備維護的特點以及存在的問題；基于早期和現(xiàn)代設(shè)備維護理論的發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀，圍繞狀態(tài)維護，重點剖析了狀態(tài)維護的內(nèi)涵、特點和結(jié)構(gòu)。 其次，基于重要度評價確定了適用狀態(tài)維護的物流設(shè)備；進而，在分析物流設(shè)備狀態(tài)監(jiān)測技術(shù)選擇、間隔期的確定等問題的基礎(chǔ)上，重點分析了設(shè)備狀態(tài)預(yù)測對于設(shè)備狀態(tài)維護的重要意義，通過比較分析各種狀態(tài)預(yù)測方法利弊，闡述了馬爾可夫預(yù)測方法用于物流設(shè)備狀態(tài)預(yù)測的先進性和可行性。 然后，以物流設(shè)備的狀態(tài)維護部件為對象，將設(shè)備退化過程離散成有限的的退化狀態(tài)，并以物流設(shè)備維護成本（指長期折扣成本）最低為目標(biāo)，同時考慮換件物流、停機損失等因素的影響，建立基于馬爾可夫決策過程的物流設(shè)備狀態(tài)維護模型（簡稱為非魯棒模型）；將物流設(shè)備作業(yè)量、操作人員經(jīng)驗等認知不確定因素抽象為一個[0,1]的不確定性水平參數(shù)，進而運用赫威斯準(zhǔn)則設(shè)定樂觀水平參數(shù)，用以調(diào)整非魯棒和極小極大魯棒方法之間的偏好程度，實現(xiàn)對物流設(shè)備的狀態(tài)維護模型的魯棒優(yōu)化。 最后，結(jié)合A企業(yè)實例，進行基于馬爾可夫決策過程的物流設(shè)備的狀態(tài)維護模型應(yīng)用研究。選用起重機物流設(shè)備，檢測部件為起重機主梁。首先，對于非魯棒維護，分析了模型在等檢測周期和非等檢測周期兩種情況的設(shè)備維護策略和成本區(qū)別；然后，求解魯棒優(yōu)化維護模型，給出了魯棒方法下維護策略和成本，進行非魯棒和魯棒維護策略的效果評價。結(jié)果表明，當(dāng)存在很大的不確定性時，魯棒優(yōu)化在物流設(shè)備狀態(tài)維護中能顯著降低維護成本，在進行維護策略制定時，如果決策者認為極小極大方法過于保守，可以使用赫威斯準(zhǔn)則替代。
[Abstract]:The performance of logistics facilities and equipment is an important manifestation of logistics technology level of logistics enterprises. In view of the backward concept of equipment maintenance in most logistics enterprises in our country, the lack of scientific basis for the formulation of maintenance strategy, the frequent occurrence of equipment failure accidents and the high maintenance cost, the paper studies the state maintenance of logistics equipment. Considering the influence of the uncertain factors such as the work capacity of logistics equipment and the experience of operators, the maintenance model of logistics equipment state based on Markov decision process is established, and the robust optimization research is carried out to optimize the manpower and maintenance resources. It is of great theoretical and practical significance to improve the efficiency of equipment management. First of all, the paper summarizes the theoretical basis of logistics equipment maintenance, on the basis of the classification of logistics equipment, summarizes the characteristics and problems of logistics equipment maintenance in China. Based on the development of early and modern equipment maintenance theory, the connotation, characteristics and structure of state maintenance are analyzed. Secondly, the logistics equipment which is suitable for state maintenance is determined based on the importance evaluation. Then, on the basis of analyzing the selection of logistics equipment condition monitoring technology and the determination of interval, the importance of equipment state prediction for equipment state maintenance is analyzed emphatically, and the advantages and disadvantages of various state prediction methods are compared and analyzed. This paper expounds the advanced nature and feasibility of Markov forecasting method used in logistics equipment state prediction. Then, taking the state maintenance component of the logistics equipment as the object, the degradation process of the equipment is discretized into a limited degradation state, and the lowest maintenance cost of the logistics equipment (that is, the long-term discount cost) is taken as the objective, and the logistics of changing parts is considered. The condition maintenance model of logistics equipment based on Markov decision process (referred to as non-robust model) is established because of the influence of factors such as downtime loss. This paper abstracts the uncertain factors of logistics equipment work capacity and operator's experience into an uncertainty level parameter of [0], and then sets the optimistic level parameter by using the Hervais criterion. It is used to adjust the preference between non-robust and minimax robust methods to achieve robust optimization of the state maintenance model of logistics equipment. Finally, the state maintenance model of logistics equipment based on Markov decision process is studied. Selection of crane logistics equipment, detection components for the main girder of the crane. Firstly, for non-robust maintenance, the maintenance strategy and cost difference of the model in the condition of equal detection period and non-equal detection period are analyzed. Then, the robust optimal maintenance model is solved, and the maintenance strategy and cost under the robust method are given, and the effects of the non-robust and robust maintenance strategies are evaluated. The results show that when there is great uncertainty, robust optimization can significantly reduce the maintenance cost in the state maintenance of logistics equipment. When the maintenance strategy is made, if the decision maker thinks that the minimax method is too conservative, It can be replaced by the Hervais criterion.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：吉林大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：F253.9;F259.23;F224

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