【摘要】：進(jìn)入二十一世紀(jì)以來(lái),移動(dòng)互聯(lián)網(wǎng)高速發(fā)展,互聯(lián)網(wǎng)技術(shù)也隨之日益更新,現(xiàn)階段企業(yè)的經(jīng)營(yíng)環(huán)境也因此發(fā)生了巨大的改變,競(jìng)爭(zhēng)環(huán)境也日益白熱化,因此,不管是哪個(gè)企業(yè),都必須時(shí)刻關(guān)注自己的投資方向與市場(chǎng)變化,做出合理的投資選擇,通常情況下,對(duì)于企業(yè)投資決策進(jìn)行評(píng)價(jià)的方包括項(xiàng)目投資回收期法、凈現(xiàn)值法等,這些方法通常比較適宜評(píng)估收益比較確定、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)比較小的項(xiàng)目,然而它們卻不能很好的評(píng)估電信項(xiàng)目,尤其是投資較大、投資會(huì)有很多不確定因素的電信項(xiàng)目。我國(guó)電信行業(yè)市場(chǎng)化時(shí)間比較晚,電信市場(chǎng)長(zhǎng)期處于封閉狀態(tài),九十年代以來(lái),電信行業(yè)經(jīng)歷了幾次大的重組、整合,逐漸形成了三足鼎立的格局。電信企業(yè)在市場(chǎng)化方面的進(jìn)程逐步加快,但在項(xiàng)目投資效益方面所進(jìn)行的分析都是選擇較為粗放的方法,這首先是由于體制方面的原因,其次投資思路、決策方法的選擇也有很大關(guān)系。在作者所在的電信企業(yè),基本所有的建設(shè)項(xiàng)目采用的還是靜態(tài)投資回報(bào)周期法來(lái)進(jìn)行項(xiàng)目效益評(píng)估,使用這種方法完全忽略掉了資本價(jià)值、未來(lái)的不確定等因素,所評(píng)估出來(lái)的結(jié)果往往和實(shí)際偏差很大,最終會(huì)導(dǎo)致決策失效。本文通過(guò)引入“實(shí)物期權(quán)”的思想,借助新的管理思想,開拓經(jīng)營(yíng)者和決策者的思路,同時(shí)也是修正與補(bǔ)充傳統(tǒng)的項(xiàng)目投資評(píng)價(jià)方法,為更好的對(duì)項(xiàng)目投資決策分析提供新的方法,在本文當(dāng)中,通過(guò)第一章對(duì)研究背景、目的、意義進(jìn)行介紹,通過(guò)第二部分對(duì)有關(guān)原理進(jìn)行探索分析,并對(duì)投資項(xiàng)目評(píng)估的各種方法進(jìn)行了分析和比較,通過(guò)分析電信項(xiàng)目的特點(diǎn),分析了電信項(xiàng)目期權(quán)的特點(diǎn),并根據(jù)實(shí)物期權(quán)的理論,討論了電信項(xiàng)目期權(quán)定價(jià)模型,并對(duì)定價(jià)模型進(jìn)行必要的分析與比較,特別是針對(duì)B-S定價(jià)模型運(yùn)用企業(yè)戰(zhàn)略決策當(dāng)中做出系統(tǒng)描述與分析。最后本文還對(duì)電信寬帶項(xiàng)目評(píng)估的現(xiàn)狀進(jìn)行了研究與分析,尤其是對(duì)實(shí)際的電信項(xiàng)目建立起對(duì)應(yīng)的模型,采用多種評(píng)估方法對(duì)同一項(xiàng)目進(jìn)行評(píng)估,根據(jù)具體模型計(jì)算,得出量化的分析結(jié)果,并對(duì)結(jié)果進(jìn)行了比較,從而希望能夠在各種方法比較中找出不同,為電信項(xiàng)目評(píng)估尋求新的嘗試。
[Abstract]:Since the 21 century, with the rapid development of mobile Internet, Internet technology has been updated day by day. Therefore, the business environment of enterprises has changed greatly and the competition environment has become increasingly fierce. Therefore, no matter which enterprise, They must always pay attention to their investment direction and market changes, and make reasonable investment choices. In general, the parties that evaluate the investment decisions of enterprises include the project investment payback period method, the net present value method, and so on. These methods are usually more suitable to evaluate the relatively certain return and less risk projects, but they can not evaluate telecommunication projects very well, especially those with large investment and many uncertain factors. The market of telecommunication industry in our country is relatively late, the telecommunication market is in the closed state for a long time. Since the 1990s, the telecommunication industry has experienced several great reorganization and integration, and gradually formed a three-legged pattern. The process of marketization of telecom enterprises has been accelerated gradually, but the analysis of the investment benefit of the project is to choose a more extensive method, which is due first to institutional reasons, and secondly to the investment ideas. The choice of decision-making method is also very important. In the telecom enterprises where the author is based, the static return on investment cycle method is used to evaluate the project benefit, which completely ignores the factors such as the capital value, the uncertainty of the future and so on. The estimated results often deviate greatly from the actual results, which will lead to the failure of the decision. By introducing the idea of "real options" and using new management ideas, this paper develops the ideas of managers and decision makers, and it also modifies and complements the traditional methods of project investment evaluation. In order to provide a new method for project investment decision analysis, in this paper, through the first chapter, the research background, purpose and significance are introduced, and the second part is the exploration and analysis of the relevant principles. By analyzing the characteristics of telecom project, the paper analyzes the characteristics of telecom project option, and discusses the pricing model of telecom project option according to the theory of real option. And the necessary analysis and comparison of the pricing model, especially for the B-S pricing model in the use of corporate strategic decision-making to make a systematic description and analysis. Finally, this paper also studies and analyzes the current situation of telecom broadband project evaluation, especially establishes the corresponding model for the actual telecommunication project, and evaluates the same project with various evaluation methods, and calculates according to the specific model. The quantitative analysis results are obtained, and the results are compared, so as to find out the differences in the comparison of various methods, and to seek a new attempt for the telecom project evaluation.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：南京大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F626

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本文編號(hào)：2186820