本文選題：手機(jī)套餐 + 顧客全生命周期管理��； 參考：《東北大學(xué)》2013年博士論文

【摘要】：2008年最新一輪電信行業(yè)重組之后,中國(guó)的電信服務(wù)行業(yè)形成了中國(guó)電信、中國(guó)移動(dòng)和中國(guó)聯(lián)通三家電信運(yùn)營(yíng)商全業(yè)務(wù)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)的格局,電信市場(chǎng)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)日趨激烈,早已成為“買方市場(chǎng)”。面向手機(jī)用戶提供的移動(dòng)業(yè)務(wù)服務(wù)是電信行業(yè)運(yùn)營(yíng)商競(jìng)爭(zhēng)和關(guān)注的焦點(diǎn),是本文研究的對(duì)象。手機(jī)套餐作為電信行業(yè)運(yùn)營(yíng)商移動(dòng)業(yè)務(wù)服務(wù)(產(chǎn)品)的一種組合銷售模式,已經(jīng)成為運(yùn)營(yíng)商市場(chǎng)銷售的核心銷售產(chǎn)品。手機(jī)套餐的設(shè)計(jì)優(yōu)化成為電信行業(yè)企業(yè)市場(chǎng)經(jīng)營(yíng)的重要基礎(chǔ)工作,其管理呈現(xiàn)復(fù)雜性與專業(yè)性。手機(jī)套餐也經(jīng)歷了由混亂到規(guī)范、由面向產(chǎn)品到面向客戶、由同質(zhì)化向差異化的演變過程。雖然電信企業(yè)目前均已形成一套相對(duì)系統(tǒng)的手機(jī)套餐管理體系與設(shè)計(jì)流程,但是其管理模式還相對(duì)粗放。一方面沒有形成科學(xué)的全生命周期管理體系,造成市場(chǎng)上大量復(fù)雜的、過時(shí)的、低效率的、甚至自相矛盾的手機(jī)套餐存在,推廣效率低下,管理成本高昂的局面；另一方面,手機(jī)套餐的設(shè)計(jì)缺乏科學(xué)和量化的方法,不能將目標(biāo)客戶群的消費(fèi)選擇行為、消費(fèi)能力、客戶終身價(jià)值、市場(chǎng)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)情況等因素根據(jù)歷史數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行綜合考慮及科學(xué)規(guī)劃,缺乏有效的套餐評(píng)價(jià)方法,不能夠形成準(zhǔn)確的套餐經(jīng)營(yíng)決策依據(jù)。本文立足了電信企業(yè)手機(jī)套餐產(chǎn)品的管理與設(shè)計(jì)優(yōu)化的核心工作,結(jié)合作者在電信公司的工作實(shí)際,應(yīng)用管理科學(xué)與工程的理論和方法,研究了手機(jī)套餐產(chǎn)品的管理和設(shè)計(jì)過程,主要成果集中在以下幾方面：(1)提出了全生命周期套餐管理的體系架構(gòu),分析了套餐設(shè)計(jì)優(yōu)化的核心流程、工作內(nèi)涵及考慮的因素,建立了手機(jī)套餐從市場(chǎng)調(diào)研、套餐規(guī)劃、客戶分群、套餐設(shè)計(jì)等環(huán)節(jié)工作直至套餐優(yōu)化、套餐退出的全生命周期管理體系,以實(shí)現(xiàn)手機(jī)套餐的專業(yè)化、系統(tǒng)化、流程化管理。(2)針對(duì)手機(jī)套餐的設(shè)計(jì)環(huán)節(jié),提出一套基于顧客選擇行為分析的手機(jī)套餐設(shè)計(jì)框架模型,實(shí)現(xiàn)了手機(jī)套餐設(shè)計(jì)從市場(chǎng)調(diào)研、目標(biāo)客戶分群、客戶選擇行為定量分析、基于客戶終身價(jià)值的套餐效用測(cè)算、套餐方案評(píng)價(jià)到套餐優(yōu)化方案選擇的綜合解決方案,從而為電信企業(yè)進(jìn)行套餐設(shè)計(jì)過程提供方法論的指導(dǎo)。(3)從客戶群體消費(fèi)特征分析入手,提出了電信客戶細(xì)分的三維模型,采用了Kohonen聚類方法根據(jù)歷史數(shù)據(jù)對(duì)客戶群體進(jìn)行聚類分析,實(shí)現(xiàn)了對(duì)目標(biāo)客戶群按相似消費(fèi)特征進(jìn)行聚類分群,有利于電信企業(yè)根據(jù)不同分群客戶的消費(fèi)特征制定有針對(duì)性的套餐或營(yíng)銷服務(wù)策略；同時(shí),該方法充分應(yīng)用和挖掘電信企業(yè)大量的用戶歷史消費(fèi)數(shù)據(jù),能夠借助數(shù)據(jù)挖掘工具與智能算法輔助企業(yè)進(jìn)行客戶分群研究、套餐效用評(píng)價(jià)及最優(yōu)套餐設(shè)計(jì)方案決策等工作。(4)提出了基于顧客選擇行為分析的手機(jī)套餐量化評(píng)價(jià)方法。該方法可以估算手機(jī)套餐各分檔的市場(chǎng)占有份額和顧客終身價(jià)值,幫助電信企業(yè)量化對(duì)比不同的套餐方案,并在此基礎(chǔ)上進(jìn)一步進(jìn)行優(yōu)化決策。該評(píng)估模型中考慮了手機(jī)套餐的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)套餐、公司現(xiàn)有套餐、收入長(zhǎng)期性、未來收益和資金折現(xiàn)率等的影響,更加符合電信市場(chǎng)實(shí)際情況。(5)分析了均勻?qū)傩允謾C(jī)套餐的特點(diǎn),在基于顧客選擇行為分析的手機(jī)套餐量化評(píng)價(jià)方法的基礎(chǔ)上,提出了針對(duì)均勻?qū)傩允謾C(jī)套餐設(shè)計(jì)優(yōu)化的數(shù)學(xué)規(guī)劃模型,并設(shè)計(jì)了遺傳算法對(duì)建立的優(yōu)化模型進(jìn)行求解。該方法能夠幫助電信企業(yè)應(yīng)用先進(jìn)的智能優(yōu)化算法獲得比較滿意的手機(jī)套餐方案,避免手機(jī)套餐的設(shè)計(jì)單純依賴人工經(jīng)驗(yàn)和定性分析,實(shí)現(xiàn)手機(jī)套餐設(shè)計(jì)的科學(xué)化和系統(tǒng)化。(6)考慮了手機(jī)套餐設(shè)計(jì)中分檔數(shù)量可變的情況,將套餐分檔數(shù)量作為決策變量,建立了手機(jī)套餐設(shè)計(jì)的優(yōu)化模型。通過求解該模型,不但可以獲得最優(yōu)手機(jī)套餐的分檔屬性水平值,而且也可以得到最優(yōu)的分檔數(shù)量,從而實(shí)現(xiàn)幫助電信企業(yè)應(yīng)用量化方法選擇分檔數(shù)量可變情形下的最優(yōu)手機(jī)套餐方案。設(shè)計(jì)了遺傳算法與粒子群算法兩種智能優(yōu)化算法對(duì)建立的模型進(jìn)行求解,并通過實(shí)驗(yàn)對(duì)兩種算法的求解計(jì)算效果進(jìn)行了分析和比較。本研究致力于解決電信企業(yè)套餐管理在宏觀和微觀兩個(gè)層面的能力提升問題；宏觀層面解決電信企業(yè)全生命周期套餐管理體系的設(shè)計(jì)問題,微觀層面不僅提出了具體套餐設(shè)計(jì)的核心框架模型,也解決了套餐設(shè)計(jì)優(yōu)化工作中基于客戶行為分析及客戶終身價(jià)值的量化評(píng)價(jià)與最優(yōu)方案選擇的問題。本研究對(duì)于電信企業(yè)提升套餐管理水平和實(shí)施科學(xué)量化的套餐設(shè)計(jì)和管理工作具有現(xiàn)實(shí)指導(dǎo)意義。
[Abstract]:After the latest restructuring of the telecommunications industry in 2008, the telecom service industry in China has formed the China Telecom, China Mobile and China Unicom three telecom operators all business competition pattern, the telecommunications market competition is becoming increasingly fierce, has already become the "buyer's market". Mobile services for mobile users are telecom operators. The focus of competition and attention is the object of this study. As a combination sales model of mobile business service (product) of telecom operators, mobile phone package has become the core sales product of operators' market sales. The design optimization of mobile phone package has become an important basic work in the business of telecom industry and its management is presented. It has also experienced a process from chaos to specification, from product oriented to customer oriented, from homogeneity to differentiation. Although telecom enterprises have formed a set of relative system management system and design process, the management model is relatively extensive. On the one hand, there is no scientific research. The whole life cycle management system causes the existence of a large number of complex, outdated, inefficient, or even contradictory mobile phone packages in the market, and the promotion of low efficiency and high management costs; on the other hand, the design of the set of mobile phones lacks scientific and quantitative methods to choose the consumer behavior and consumption ability of the target customer group. Customer lifetime value, market competition, and other factors according to historical data comprehensive consideration and scientific planning, lack of effective method of set meal evaluation, can not form an accurate basis for the decision to manage the set meal. This paper is based on the core work of the management and design optimization of the telecom enterprise's mobile phone package products, and combines the author's work in the telecom company. In practice, applying the theory and method of management science and engineering, the management and design process of mobile phone package products are studied. The main achievements are as follows: (1) the system architecture of the whole life cycle management is put forward, the core flow of the optimization of the design of the package, the connotation of work and the factors to be considered, and the set up of the set up of a mobile phone set meal. From the market research, the package planning, the customer division, the package design and so on, the whole life cycle management system of the set meal is optimized to realize the professionalization, systematization and process management of the set meal. (2) a set of mobile package design framework based on the behavior analysis of the customer's choice is put forward. The model realizes the mobile phone package design from the market research, the target customer grouping, the customer selection behavior quantitative analysis, the utility calculation based on the customer lifetime value, the package plan evaluation to the comprehensive solution choice of the set meal optimization scheme, thus providing the methodology guidance for the telecom enterprise to carry on the set meal design process. (3) from the customer group. Based on the analysis of body consumption characteristics, a three-dimensional model of telecom customer segmentation is proposed. The Kohonen clustering method is used to cluster analysis of customer groups according to historical data. The cluster clustering is realized for the target customer group according to the similar consumption characteristics, which is beneficial to the telecom enterprises to formulate the target according to the consumer characteristics of different groups of customers. At the same time, the method fully uses and excavate a large number of users' historical consumption data of telecom enterprises, and can help enterprises to do the research of customer grouping, the utility evaluation of the set meal and the decision of the optimal package design with the help of data mining tools and intelligent algorithms. (4) an analysis based on the behavior analysis of customer selection is put forward. This method can estimate the share of the market share and the customer's lifetime value, help the telecom enterprises to quantify and compare different packages, and further optimize the decision. In the long run, the influence of future income and cash discount rate is more in line with the actual situation of the telecom market. (5) the characteristics of the uniform attribute mobile phone set meal are analyzed. On the basis of the quantitative evaluation method of the mobile set meal based on the customer selection behavior analysis, a mathematical programming model for the design optimization of the uniform property of the mobile phone set is put forward and the design is designed. This method can help the telecom enterprises to use advanced intelligent optimization algorithms to obtain more satisfactory mobile package plans, avoid the design of the mobile set meal simply rely on artificial experience and qualitative analysis, and realize the scientific and systematic design of the set of mobile phones. (6) consideration of the mobile phone set meal. In the case of variable number of sub files in the design, the optimization model of the design of the set of mobile phones is established by taking the number of the set meals as a decision variable. By solving the model, the level of the optimal file attribute level of the optimal mobile phone can be obtained, and the optimal number of files can be obtained, thus realizing the selection of the quantitative methods for the application of the telecom enterprises. The optimal mobile set meal scheme under the variable number of selection is designed. The two intelligent optimization algorithms of genetic algorithm and particle swarm optimization are designed to solve the established model, and the calculation results of the two algorithms are analyzed and compared through experiments. The study is devoted to solving the macro and micro two of the management of the telecom enterprise set meal. At the macro level, we solve the design problem of the whole life cycle management system for telecom enterprises. The micro level not only puts forward the core framework model of the specific package design, but also solves the quantitative evaluation and optimal choice of customer lifetime value based on the analysis of customer behavior and the customer lifetime value in the optimization work of the set meal. This research has practical guiding significance for telecom enterprises to improve the management level of packages and implement scientific and quantitative package design and management.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：東北大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F274;F626

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