本文選題：財政赤字 + 經(jīng)常項目余額�。� 參考：《財政部財政科學(xué)研究所》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：近二十年來,以美國為主的發(fā)達國家一直存在財政赤字與經(jīng)常項目赤字同時存在的“雙赤字”現(xiàn)象,但是以中國為代表的新興發(fā)展國家,經(jīng)常項目呈現(xiàn)順差并持續(xù)攀升。財政赤字與經(jīng)常項目赤字的并存或呈現(xiàn)相反關(guān)系的現(xiàn)象,備受經(jīng)濟學(xué)者的關(guān)注,許多學(xué)者不斷嘗試從理論或?qū)嵶C方面分析各國財政赤字與經(jīng)常項目赤字之間的關(guān)系。 對于財政赤字與經(jīng)常項目之間的關(guān)系,理論方面有著不同的觀點。傳統(tǒng)的凱恩斯主義者,從國民收入恒等式出發(fā),驗證了經(jīng)常項目與超額儲蓄、財政赤字之間的緊密關(guān)系,財政赤字能夠通過儲蓄—投資直接影響到經(jīng)常項目赤字。國際吸收理論,則是將居民消費、投資和政府支出統(tǒng)稱為國內(nèi)吸收,財政赤字的增加正是通過國內(nèi)吸收,將影響擴展到經(jīng)常項目上。蒙代爾—弗萊明模型則是從匯率出發(fā),表明財政赤字政策在不同的匯率制度對于經(jīng)常項目的影響則不同。而李嘉圖等價定理則是認為財政政策是中性的,對于經(jīng)常項目沒有影響。本文在梳理了理論界關(guān)于財政赤字與經(jīng)常項目的主要觀點之后,接著梳理出與主要理論觀點相對應(yīng)的傳導(dǎo)機制：儲蓄-投資傳導(dǎo)機制、產(chǎn)出-吸收傳導(dǎo)機制、匯率傳導(dǎo)機制和中性傳導(dǎo)機制。 除了理論方面的研究,本文還從不同時期內(nèi)財政政策的變遷和經(jīng)常項目的變動、兩者之間的實證模型分析我國財政赤字與經(jīng)常項目之間的關(guān)系。針對兩者之間的關(guān)系,本文一方面對歷年的財政政策的變遷和經(jīng)常項目變動進行分析,另一方面則是通過兩者的歷史數(shù)據(jù)進行實證分析。實證分析包括兩者靜態(tài)分析和動態(tài)分析。靜態(tài)分析注重財政赤字與經(jīng)常項目當(dāng)期之間的關(guān)系,以及兩者的趨勢性。動態(tài)分析,則是僅僅從財政赤字和經(jīng)常項目余額歷史數(shù)據(jù)的統(tǒng)計特性出發(fā),通過單位根檢驗、協(xié)整檢驗、脈沖響應(yīng)函數(shù)和方差分解多方面分析兩者之間的關(guān)系。最后綜合靜態(tài)分析、動態(tài)分析的結(jié)果,給出相關(guān)的政策建議。
[Abstract]:In the past two decades, the developed countries dominated by the United States have always had a "double deficit" phenomenon, which exists at the same time as the current account deficit. However, the emerging developing countries, represented by China, have a surplus of current account and continue to climb. The phenomenon that fiscal deficit and current account deficit coexist or present opposite relationship has attracted the attention of economists. Many scholars have been trying to analyze the relationship between fiscal deficit and current account deficit from theoretical or empirical aspects. There are different views on the relationship between fiscal deficits and current accounts. The traditional Keynesian, starting from the identity of national income, verifies the close relationship between current account and excess savings, fiscal deficit, which can directly affect the current account deficit through savings and investment. The international absorption theory refers to the consumption, investment and government expenditure of residents as domestic absorption. The increase of fiscal deficit is through domestic absorption, which extends the influence to the current account. The Mondal-Fleming model is based on the exchange rate, which shows that the fiscal deficit policy has different effects on the current account under different exchange rate regimes. Ricardo's equivalence theorem is that fiscal policy is neutral and has no effect on current account. After combing the main views of the theoretical circle on fiscal deficit and current account, this paper then sorts out the transmission mechanism corresponding to the main theoretical viewpoints: savings-investment transmission mechanism, output-absorption transmission mechanism, Exchange rate transmission mechanism and neutral transmission mechanism. In addition to the theoretical research, this paper also analyzes the relationship between the fiscal deficit and the current account from the changes of fiscal policy and current account in different periods, and the empirical model between them. In view of the relationship between the two, on the one hand, this paper analyzes the changes of fiscal policy and current account changes over the years, on the other hand, it makes an empirical analysis through the historical data of both. The empirical analysis includes both static analysis and dynamic analysis. Static analysis focuses on the relationship between fiscal deficit and current account, as well as the trend of both. Dynamic analysis is only based on the statistical characteristics of the historical data of fiscal deficit and current account balance. The relationship between them is analyzed through unit root test, cointegration test, impulse response function and variance decomposition. Finally, synthesizing the results of static analysis and dynamic analysis, the relevant policy recommendations are given.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：財政部財政科學(xué)研究所
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F812.4

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