本文選題：財(cái)政收入 + 經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)�。� 參考：《河南財(cái)經(jīng)政法大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：1994年以后,中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的整體水平出現(xiàn)了大幅度的增長(zhǎng),地方經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展和財(cái)政收入水平也都進(jìn)入了一個(gè)快速增長(zhǎng)時(shí)期。1994年,河南省的財(cái)政收入為171.38億元,到了2015年河南省的財(cái)政收入為4428.1億元,22年間,河南省的財(cái)政收入增長(zhǎng)近26倍;1994年,河南省地區(qū)生產(chǎn)總值為2216.83億元,而2015年,河南省地區(qū)生產(chǎn)總值為37002.16億元�？梢钥闯�,河南省的地區(qū)生產(chǎn)總值和財(cái)政收入的水平都有了大幅度的提高。河南省作為中原崛起的核心省份,其經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展水平對(duì)全國(guó)和中原崛起都有重大影響,本文的關(guān)注點(diǎn)在于河南省這個(gè)地區(qū)的財(cái)政收入和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)之間的關(guān)系。本文首先利用河南省1994-2015年的數(shù)據(jù),根據(jù)衡量財(cái)政收入與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)關(guān)系的三大指標(biāo)對(duì)河南省財(cái)政收入和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的關(guān)系進(jìn)行描述性統(tǒng)計(jì)分析,發(fā)現(xiàn)河南省的財(cái)政收入與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)之間存在顯著關(guān)系,并且財(cái)政收入的增速普遍高于經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的增速。從產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的角度,第一產(chǎn)業(yè)的生產(chǎn)總值占河南省GDP比重高于全國(guó)平均水平,而河南省第三產(chǎn)業(yè)生產(chǎn)總值的水平低于全國(guó)平均水平10個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。其次,為了更加深入對(duì)二者關(guān)系進(jìn)行分析,利用河南省1994-2015年之間的財(cái)政收入與GDP的數(shù)據(jù),運(yùn)用實(shí)證分析的方法對(duì)財(cái)政收入和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的關(guān)系進(jìn)行研究。本文主要運(yùn)用了協(xié)整檢驗(yàn)、誤差修正模型和格蘭杰(Granger)因果檢驗(yàn)等方法對(duì)此進(jìn)行了實(shí)證研究。通過實(shí)證發(fā)現(xiàn):河南省的財(cái)政收入與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)之間不存在長(zhǎng)期穩(wěn)定的均衡關(guān)系,而河南省的財(cái)政收入與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)和滯后一期的財(cái)政收入,三者之間存在長(zhǎng)期穩(wěn)定的均衡關(guān)系;短期內(nèi),河南省的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)和滯后一期的財(cái)政收入每增加1%,財(cái)政收入就會(huì)分別增加0.729%和0.405%,當(dāng)經(jīng)濟(jì)的短期波動(dòng)偏離了經(jīng)濟(jì)的長(zhǎng)期均衡時(shí),就會(huì)以-0.98929的調(diào)整力度將經(jīng)濟(jì)的非均衡狀態(tài)拉回到均衡的狀態(tài);根據(jù)格蘭杰因果檢驗(yàn)發(fā)現(xiàn),河南省滯后一期的財(cái)政收入不是經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的格蘭杰原因,而滯后一期的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)是財(cái)政收入的格蘭杰原因。
[Abstract]:Since 1994, the overall level of China's economy has increased by a large margin, and local economic development and fiscal revenue have also entered a period of rapid growth. In 1994, Henan Province's fiscal revenue was 17.138 billion yuan. By 2015, the fiscal revenue of Henan Province was 442.81 billion yuan and 22 years, the revenue of Henan Province increased by nearly 26 times, in 1994, the gross domestic product of Henan province was 221.683 billion yuan, and in 2015, the regional GDP of Henan Province was 3.700216 trillion yuan. As can be seen, Henan Province's regional gross domestic product and the level of fiscal revenue have greatly improved. As the core province of the Central Plains, the economic development level of Henan Province has great influence on the rise of the whole country and the Central Plains. The focus of this paper is on the relationship between the fiscal revenue and economic growth in this region of Henan Province. Based on the data of Henan Province from 1994 to 2015, this paper makes a descriptive statistical analysis on the relationship between fiscal revenue and economic growth according to the three indexes of measuring the relationship between fiscal revenue and economic growth. It is found that there is a significant relationship between fiscal revenue and economic growth in Henan Province, and the growth rate of fiscal revenue is generally higher than that of economic growth. From the point of view of industrial structure, the proportion of primary industry GDP to GDP in Henan Province is higher than the national average, while the level of tertiary industry GDP in Henan Province is 10 percentage points lower than the national average level. Secondly, in order to further analyze the relationship between the two, using the data of fiscal revenue and GDP from 1994 to 2015 in Henan Province, using the method of empirical analysis to study the relationship between fiscal revenue and economic growth. Cointegration test, error correction model and Granger causality test are mainly used in this paper. The empirical results show that there is no long-term stable equilibrium relationship between financial revenue and economic growth in Henan Province, while there is a long-term stable equilibrium relationship between fiscal revenue and economic growth and lagging fiscal revenue in Henan Province. In the short term, for every increase in economic growth in Henan Province and the increase in fiscal revenue in the lagging period, the fiscal revenue will increase by 0.729% and 0.405% respectively. When the short-term fluctuations of the economy deviate from the long-term equilibrium of the economy, It will pull the unbalanced state of the economy back to the equilibrium state with a readjustment of -0.98929. According to the Granger causality test, it is found that the fiscal revenue of Henan Province that lags behind in the first period is not the Granger cause of economic growth. And the economic growth that lags one period is the Granger reason of financial revenue.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：河南財(cái)經(jīng)政法大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F224;F812.41;F127

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本文編號(hào)：1980390