本文選題：公共支出規(guī)模 + 居民消費��； 參考：《首都經(jīng)濟貿(mào)易大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：政府公共支出與經(jīng)濟增長的關(guān)系一直是宏觀經(jīng)濟研究的重要領(lǐng)域。而市場自身的特性導(dǎo)致外部性、公共物品、信息不對稱以及壟斷等這樣的狀態(tài)時常存在，因此政府干預(yù)市場的行為具有必然性。公共支出行為是政府對國家或地區(qū)進(jìn)行宏觀調(diào)控的重要手段，政府公共支出的總量和占GDP比重是政府作用市場的程度的體現(xiàn)。公共支出的規(guī)模過小，對經(jīng)濟增長促進(jìn)作用不明顯，規(guī)模過大又會抑制經(jīng)濟增長。因此，探求公共支出對經(jīng)濟增長的影響機制，確定國家或地區(qū)公共支出的最優(yōu)規(guī)模，將有利于發(fā)揮公共支出對經(jīng)濟增長的促進(jìn)作用。 本文在總結(jié)已有的研究成果的基礎(chǔ)上，構(gòu)建一個理論分析框架，用于研究公共支出規(guī)模與經(jīng)濟增長關(guān)系。分別從支出視角和供給視角兩個方向考察二者的關(guān)系。從支出視角看，政府公共支出會通過拉動居民消費和促進(jìn)私人投資從而推動經(jīng)濟增長；從供給視角看，公共支出能提供資本、增加人力、提供制度支持以及推動技術(shù)進(jìn)步這四方面來拉動經(jīng)濟增長。按照理論分析的框架，選取北京市作為研究對象，利用聯(lián)立方程組的計量方法，分析公共支出對經(jīng)濟增長的整體效應(yīng)。 通過分析得出：北京市公共支出對經(jīng)濟增長的整體效應(yīng)自1982年起表現(xiàn)為促進(jìn)效應(yīng)，在2010年的貢獻(xiàn)率最大，此后有所下降。構(gòu)建可變參數(shù)模型對北京市公共支出的居民消費、私人投資以及技術(shù)進(jìn)步效應(yīng)進(jìn)行分析，能發(fā)現(xiàn)歷年北京市公共支出對三者的貢獻(xiàn)率，結(jié)果表明，1994年以后，北京市公共支出對三者的效應(yīng)表現(xiàn)為正向的拉動和促進(jìn)作用。進(jìn)一步構(gòu)建SVAR模型分別對公共支出、居民消費與經(jīng)濟增長的動態(tài)效應(yīng)，公共支出、私人投資與經(jīng)濟增長的動態(tài)效應(yīng)，以及公共支出、技術(shù)進(jìn)步與經(jīng)濟增長的動態(tài)效應(yīng)進(jìn)行分析，亦說明公共支出對居民消費、私人投資、技術(shù)進(jìn)步以及經(jīng)濟增長的變動具有較大的貢獻(xiàn)，這也驗證了本文提出的理論分析框架中，公共支出規(guī)模對經(jīng)濟增長的影響路徑是存在的。本文對北京市最優(yōu)公共支出規(guī)模進(jìn)行測算，，發(fā)現(xiàn)北京市最優(yōu)公共支出規(guī)模為占GDP比重20.8%，而目前北京市公共支出規(guī)模為占GDP的26.8%，公共支出規(guī)模過大。最后，基于理論和實證的研究結(jié)果，并結(jié)合北京市自身情況和特點，提出了北京市政府應(yīng)加快政府職能的轉(zhuǎn)變，同時注重優(yōu)化政府支出規(guī)模，充分發(fā)揮市場機制的決定性作用，優(yōu)化科研成果轉(zhuǎn)化為生產(chǎn)力的路徑，積極推進(jìn)金融體制創(chuàng)新，調(diào)整收入分配等政策建議，進(jìn)一步優(yōu)化公共支出規(guī)模和充分發(fā)揮公共支出對經(jīng)濟增長的促進(jìn)作用。
[Abstract]:The relationship between government public expenditure and economic growth has been an important area of macroeconomic research. The characteristics of the market itself lead to externality, public goods, information asymmetry and monopoly, and so on, so government intervention in the market is inevitable. The behavior of public expenditure is an important means for the government to carry out macro-control over the country or region. The total amount of government public expenditure and its proportion to GDP are the embodiment of the degree of government acting on the market. The scale of public expenditure is too small to promote economic growth. Therefore, to explore the influence mechanism of public expenditure on economic growth and determine the optimal scale of national or regional public expenditure will be beneficial to play the role of public expenditure in promoting economic growth. On the basis of summarizing the existing research results, this paper constructs a theoretical analysis framework to study the relationship between the scale of public expenditure and economic growth. From the perspective of expenditure and the perspective of supply to examine the relationship between the two. From the point of view of expenditure, government public expenditure can boost economic growth by stimulating consumption of residents and promoting private investment. From the perspective of supply, public expenditure can provide capital and increase manpower. To provide institutional support and promote technological progress in these four areas to stimulate economic growth. According to the framework of theoretical analysis, Beijing is selected as the object of study, and the econometric method of simultaneous equations is used to analyze the overall effect of public expenditure on economic growth. It is concluded that the overall effect of public expenditure on economic growth in Beijing has been positive since 1982, and the contribution rate was the largest in 2010, and then declined. A variable parameter model is constructed to analyze the effects of residents' consumption, private investment and technological progress of Beijing's public expenditure, and the contribution rate of Beijing's public expenditure to the three over the years can be found. The results show that, after 1994, The effect of Beijing public expenditure on the three is positive pull and promotion. The dynamic effects of public expenditure, resident consumption and economic growth, the dynamic effects of public expenditure, private investment and economic growth, as well as the dynamic effects of public expenditure, technological progress and economic growth are further analyzed by SVAR model. It also shows that public expenditure has a great contribution to the changes of consumption, private investment, technological progress and economic growth, which also proves the theoretical analysis framework proposed in this paper. The influence of the scale of public expenditure on economic growth is there. This paper calculates the scale of Beijing's optimal public expenditure, and finds that the optimal scale of Beijing's public expenditure accounts for 20.8% of GDP, while at present the scale of Beijing's public expenditure is 26.8% of GDP, and the scale of public expenditure is too large. Finally, based on the theoretical and empirical research results, combined with Beijing's own situation and characteristics, the paper puts forward that the Beijing municipal government should speed up the transformation of government functions, at the same time, pay attention to optimize the scale of government expenditure, give full play to the decisive role of the market mechanism. We should optimize the path of transforming scientific research achievements into productive forces, actively promote the innovation of financial system, adjust the income distribution and other policy suggestions, further optimize the scale of public expenditure and give full play to the role of public expenditure in promoting economic growth.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：首都經(jīng)濟貿(mào)易大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F812.45;F124.1

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