本文選題：地方政府債務(wù)風(fēng)險 + 風(fēng)險預(yù)警�。� 參考：《西南財經(jīng)大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：2008年爆發(fā)的金融危機通過多種途徑蔓延至我國,對我國的經(jīng)濟增長產(chǎn)生了巨大的負面影響。為了應(yīng)對此次金融危機帶來的沖擊,我國政府宣布實施四萬億刺激經(jīng)濟計劃。該計劃一經(jīng)宣布,各地方政府馬上開始進行大量基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)投資,實際的投資量遠遠超過了四萬億元。但是,現(xiàn)階段我國地方政府本身收入來源有限,又不能公開發(fā)行債券向社會融資,只能采取變通手段,成立融資平臺公司向銀行借款。表面上看,雖然地方財政的預(yù)算狀況良好,實際上卻逐漸積累了大量的債務(wù)風(fēng)險。漸漸地,地方政府債務(wù)風(fēng)險問題在當(dāng)前經(jīng)濟體制改革中變得突出起來,也引起了社會各界的廣泛關(guān)注。 既然地方政府債務(wù)問題在我國已無法避免,而且規(guī)模巨大、已形成風(fēng)險,與其遮遮掩掩,不如公開面對、予以規(guī)范、加強管理。為防范和化解風(fēng)險隱患,確保經(jīng)濟金融平穩(wěn)運行,必須加強地方政府債務(wù)管理,那么如何預(yù)警風(fēng)險就顯得尤為迫切。在這種情況下,本文選擇地方政府債務(wù)風(fēng)險預(yù)警體系進行研究,希望能有助于風(fēng)險預(yù)警,并采取相應(yīng)對策以防范風(fēng)險。 本文首先在厘清相關(guān)概念的基礎(chǔ)上,將國內(nèi)外學(xué)者關(guān)于政府債務(wù)管理的文獻進行了綜述。在西方國家,由于普遍允許地方政府發(fā)行市政債券,因此國外學(xué)者對于政府債務(wù)的研究較多的集中在國家層面,對于國家主權(quán)債務(wù)的研究較多,對地方政府債務(wù)的具體分析較少。而我國地方政府債務(wù)的發(fā)展相對滯后,由于長期受到《預(yù)算法》的管制,地方政府紛紛采取變通的手段獲取銀行貸款。這導(dǎo)致了地方政府的隱性債務(wù)激增,蘊藏了大量的風(fēng)險。近年來,我國學(xué)者開始逐漸重視對地方債務(wù)風(fēng)險的研究,并形成了一定的研究成果。然而,在對地方政府債務(wù)的研究中定性分析占大多數(shù),通過建立預(yù)警模型進行實證分析的研究較少。 其次,本文系統(tǒng)性地論述了地方政府債務(wù)風(fēng)險預(yù)警的理論基礎(chǔ)。地方政府債務(wù)風(fēng)險預(yù)警就是將地方政府債務(wù)的定性認識和定量研究相結(jié)合,利用現(xiàn)代化工具和各種技術(shù)手段,收集各類與債務(wù)風(fēng)險相關(guān)的政府經(jīng)濟活動數(shù)據(jù),構(gòu)建評估地方政府債務(wù)風(fēng)險的指標(biāo)體系,并建立地方政府債務(wù)風(fēng)險預(yù)警模型,從而評估預(yù)警地方政府債務(wù)風(fēng)險程度,最終為各級政府監(jiān)控地方政府債務(wù)運行和制定化解風(fēng)險對策提供科學(xué)依據(jù)。風(fēng)險預(yù)警一般包括風(fēng)險識別、風(fēng)險評估、風(fēng)險判斷三個階段。結(jié)合實際情況,本文采取數(shù)據(jù)分析法對地方政府債務(wù)進行了風(fēng)險識別,使用判別分析法作為經(jīng)濟預(yù)警的方法進行實證分析,構(gòu)建出地方政府債務(wù)風(fēng)險預(yù)警系統(tǒng)。 本文的第三部分對我國地方政府債務(wù)的發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀進行了分析。我國地方政府債務(wù)發(fā)行經(jīng)歷了法律嚴(yán)厲禁止、中央財政部代發(fā)、地方直接發(fā)行試點三個階段。隨著經(jīng)濟體制改革的進一步發(fā)展,地方政府直接發(fā)行市政債券的趨勢愈來愈明朗。.目前,我國地方政府債務(wù)表現(xiàn)出債務(wù)規(guī)模巨大、市級政府為主要舉債人、融資平臺為主要舉債主體、銀行貸款為主要資金來源、市政建設(shè)為主要投向、未來兩年還款壓力大等特征,這些特征的出現(xiàn)應(yīng)該得到重視。 隨后,本文在第四部分通過對比2010年及2013年我國地方政府債務(wù)的相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù),對地方政府債務(wù)進行了風(fēng)險識別。我國現(xiàn)階段地方政府債務(wù)風(fēng)險主要表現(xiàn)為規(guī)模風(fēng)險、結(jié)構(gòu)風(fēng)險、政府收支風(fēng)險及宏觀經(jīng)濟風(fēng)險四個方面。本文認為,上述風(fēng)險出現(xiàn)的主要原因在四個方面,一是財政體制改革的滯后,二是行政激勵制度的扭曲,三是債務(wù)管理體制的落后,四是宏觀調(diào)控政策的失效。 本文第五部分構(gòu)建出地方政府債務(wù)的風(fēng)險預(yù)警模型。首先,利用全國30個省市地方政府債務(wù)的數(shù)據(jù)建立相關(guān)的指標(biāo)體系,運用SPSS軟件進行聚類分析,歸納出四個影響地方政府債務(wù)風(fēng)險的公共因子,即債務(wù)規(guī)模風(fēng)險因子、債務(wù)結(jié)構(gòu)風(fēng)險因子、政府收支風(fēng)險因子及宏觀經(jīng)濟風(fēng)險因子。然后,通過因子分析,得出每個省市的風(fēng)險得分。最后,本文結(jié)合具體風(fēng)險指標(biāo)的臨界值構(gòu)造不同程度的風(fēng)險區(qū)間,判斷出目前每個省市政府債務(wù)的風(fēng)險水平。 最后,針對我國地方政府債務(wù)風(fēng)險的現(xiàn)狀及成因,本文提出了三條防范地方政府債務(wù)風(fēng)險的建議。一為通過合理劃分財權(quán)事權(quán)、提高地方政府收入、規(guī)范轉(zhuǎn)移支付制度及提高財政透明度等措施,完善現(xiàn)有財政體制。二為通過允許更多地方政府舉債、改革地方政績考核體制來加快行政體制改革,規(guī)范地方政府行為。三為建立包括事前決策、事中執(zhí)行、事后監(jiān)管的地方債務(wù)管理體系,實現(xiàn)債務(wù)的有效管理。具體措施包括,設(shè)置專門的政府債務(wù)管理機構(gòu),健全地方政府債務(wù)的借用機制,提高債務(wù)資金的使用效率,設(shè)立地方政府償債基金,完善債務(wù)信息披露制度,建立地方政府債務(wù)的內(nèi)外部監(jiān)管體系,構(gòu)建地方政府債務(wù)風(fēng)險預(yù)警體系等。 本文的創(chuàng)新之處主要體現(xiàn)在以下幾方面： 1、研究對象和視角的獨特性。目前圍繞地方政府債務(wù)風(fēng)險研究很多,但主要是圍繞地方政府債務(wù)風(fēng)險的內(nèi)涵、特征、現(xiàn)狀描述、形成機理,以及如何防范和化解地方政府債務(wù)風(fēng)險。其實,目前國內(nèi)對地方政府債務(wù)存在風(fēng)險已達成共識,防范和化解地方政府債務(wù)風(fēng)險關(guān)鍵問題在于風(fēng)險如何度量、評估以及預(yù)警。本文選擇地方政府債務(wù)風(fēng)險預(yù)警進行研究,具有一定的理論和現(xiàn)實意義。 2、從地方政府雙重主體角度分析地方政府債務(wù)風(fēng)險。地方政府作為公共主體,主要運用財政融資,債務(wù)風(fēng)險主要來自于財政收不抵支形成的赤字以及市場經(jīng)濟轉(zhuǎn)軌帶來的大量或有、隱性債務(wù)；在財政融資無法保證政府公共職能履行情況下,尋求金融手段融資。而地方政府作為經(jīng)濟主體,主要運用金融手段融資,目前在法律不允許地方發(fā)債情況下,地方政府直接、間接向金融機構(gòu)貸款,采用土地融資、發(fā)行企業(yè)債券、推行信托計劃等多種變通融資方式,由此形成債務(wù)風(fēng)險。 3、建立地方政府債務(wù)風(fēng)險預(yù)警理論框架。我國學(xué)術(shù)界對地方政府債務(wù)風(fēng)險預(yù)警的研究尚處于起步階段,評估預(yù)警理論、方法、指標(biāo)體系、評判標(biāo)準(zhǔn)尚未成熟,而預(yù)警指標(biāo)普遍存在指標(biāo)設(shè)計不科學(xué)不全面。本文從總體層面和項目層面分別分析探討了地方政府債務(wù)風(fēng)險預(yù)警體系內(nèi)涵、預(yù)警目標(biāo)、預(yù)警程序、預(yù)警方法,并定性構(gòu)建了相對完善的地方政府債務(wù)風(fēng)險預(yù)警指標(biāo)體系。 4、建立地方政府債務(wù)風(fēng)險預(yù)警模型。本文利用國家審計署發(fā)布的地方政府債務(wù)審計報告相關(guān)權(quán)威數(shù)據(jù),以30個省市為樣本,在定性指標(biāo)體系基礎(chǔ)上,運用聚類分析法建立實際有效的指標(biāo)體系,通過因子分析法,找出預(yù)警指標(biāo)4個公共因子。運用因子得分法,得到公共因子以及風(fēng)險臨界值的得分,在此基礎(chǔ)上構(gòu)建地方政府債務(wù)風(fēng)險預(yù)警模型,對2013年全國30個省市地方政府債務(wù)風(fēng)險進行預(yù)警。 5、提出地方政府債務(wù)風(fēng)險預(yù)警的制度建設(shè)。目前由于體制的原因,政府動力不足,所以,將監(jiān)控和預(yù)警付諸于實踐并且法制化還遠不能做到,地方政府債務(wù)管理意識還沒有真正樹立起來,防御、降低債務(wù)風(fēng)險必須有相關(guān)制度建設(shè)配合。為此,本文提出了一系列制度建設(shè)建議。
[Abstract]:In order to cope with the impact of the financial crisis , the government announced the implementation of the four trillion stimulus economic plan . In order to deal with the impact of the financial crisis , the government announced the implementation of the four trillion stimulus economic plan .

Since the local government debt problem can not be avoided in our country , and the scale is huge , the risk is formed , and it is hidden from it , it is better to face , regulate and strengthen the management . In order to prevent and resolve the hidden danger of risk and ensure the smooth operation of the local government , how to alert the risk is especially urgent . In this case , this paper chooses the local government debt risk early warning system to carry on the research , hoping to help the risk early warning , and take the corresponding countermeasure to guard against the risk .

In recent years , Chinese scholars have begun to pay more attention to the study of local debt risk and have formed some research results . However , in recent years , Chinese scholars have begun to pay more attention to the study of local debt risk and have formed some research results . However , in recent years , Chinese scholars have begun to pay more attention to the study of local debt risk , and have formed some research results . However , in the study of local government debt , the research of empirical analysis is less .

Secondly , this paper systematically discusses the theory foundation of the local government debt risk early warning . The local government debt risk early warning is to combine the qualitative and quantitative research of local government debt , collect various government economic activity data related to the debt risk , build the index system of local government debt risk , and establish the local government debt risk early warning model .

The third part of this paper analyzes the present situation of local government debt in our country . The local government debt issuance has experienced three stages of the severe prohibition of the law , the substitution of the Central Treasury Department and the local direct distribution pilot . With the further development of the economic system reform , the tendency of the local government to issue the municipal bonds becomes more and more clear . At present , the local government debt of our country shows the huge debt scale , the municipal government is the main debt burden person , the financing platform is the main debt main body , the bank loan is the main source of funds , the municipal construction is the main investment , the next two years repayment pressure is big and so on , these characteristics should be paid attention .

Then , in the fourth part , by comparing the relevant data of local government debt in China in 2010 and 2013 , the risk identification of local government debt is carried out . At present , the risk of local government debt is mainly represented as scale risk , structural risk , government revenue and expenditure risk and macro - economic risk .

The fifth part of this paper constructs the risk pre - warning model of local government debt . First , using the data of 30 provinces and municipalities in the country to set up the relevant index system , the public factors influencing the debt risk of local government , namely the debt scale risk factor , the debt structure risk factor , the government revenue and expenditure risk factor and the macro - economic risk factor , are analyzed by SPSS software . Finally , according to the factor analysis , the risk score of each province is obtained . Finally , this paper constructs the risk interval of different degree according to the critical value of the specific risk index , and determines the risk level of the debt of each provincial government .

Finally , aiming at the present situation and cause of local government debt risk in our country , this paper puts forward three suggestions to prevent local government debt risk . First , to improve the existing fiscal system by rationally dividing the right of property right , improving local government revenue , standardizing transfer payment system and improving financial transparency .

The innovations of this article are mainly embodied in the following aspects :

1 . The research object and the uniqueness of the angle of view . At present , there are many researches around the local government debt risk , but mainly about the connotation , characteristics , current situation description and formation mechanism of local government debt risk , how to prevent and resolve the local government debt risk . In fact , there is a consensus on the risk of local government debt , and how to prevent and resolve the key problem of local government debt risk is how to measure , evaluate and early warning . This paper chooses the local government debt risk early warning to carry out the research , and has certain theoretical and practical significance .

2 . The local government debt risk is analyzed from the perspective of the local government . Local governments , as the public subjects , mainly use financial financing . The debt risk mainly comes from the deficit formed by the fiscal revenue and the large amount of contingent liabilities caused by the transition of the market economy ;
The local government , as the main body of economy , mainly uses financial means to finance . At present , the local government directly and indirectly loans to the financial institution under the condition that the law does not allow the local government to repay the debt , the local government directly and indirectly loans to the financial institution , adopts various kinds of alternative financing methods , such as land financing , issuing corporate bonds and implementing the trust scheme , thereby forming the debt risk .

3 . Establish the theoretical framework of local government debt risk early warning . The research on the early warning of local government debt risk is still in the initial stage , and the evaluation early - warning theory , method , index system and evaluation criterion are not mature . The paper analyzes the connotation , early warning target , early warning procedure and early warning method of local government debt risk early warning system from the overall level and the project level , and qualitatively constructs the relatively perfect early warning index system of local government debt risk .

4 . Establish the local government debt risk pre - warning model . Based on the qualitative index system , the paper uses cluster analysis method to establish the effective index system based on the authoritative data of the local government debt audit report issued by the National Audit Office . By means of factor analysis method , we find out the four common factors of the early warning index . By using the factor score method , we get the score of the public factor and the critical value , and then build the local government debt risk pre - warning model , and forewarn the local government debt risk in 30 provinces and cities in 2013 .

5 . Put forward the system construction of the local government debt risk early warning . At present , because of the reasons of the system , the government power is insufficient , so the monitoring and early warning is put into practice and the legalization is far from being done , the local government debt management consciousness has not really set up , the defense , the debt risk must have the relevant system construction cooperation . To this end , this paper puts forward a series of system construction suggestions .

【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南財經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F812.5

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